Essential Report

Federal politics – voting intention

Feb 20, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1042 respondents

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week

This week
Liberal 45% 44% 44% 45%
National 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6% 48% 47% 47% 48%
Labor 38.0% 35% 33% 34% 33%
Greens 11.8% 10% 11% 10% 11%
Other/Independent 6.6% 7% 9% 9% 9%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 54% 54% 54% 55%
Labor 50.1% 46% 46% 46% 45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Private Health Insurance Rebate

Feb 20, 2012

Q. The Government proposes to means test the private health insurance rebate, with reductions beginning for a single person earning more than $80,000 or families on $160,000. Singles earning more than $124,000 and families on more than $248,000 will not receive any of the rebate. Do you support or oppose means testing the heath insurance rebate for people on higher incomes?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Income less than $31,200 Income $31,200-$51,999 Income $52,000-$83,199 Income $83,200+
Total support 53% 76% 38% 65% 67% 63% 59% 45%
Total oppose 33% 13% 51% 19% 17% 23% 28% 46%
Strongly support 22% 46% 8% 22% 33% 23% 23% 21%
Support 31% 30% 30% 43% 34% 40% 36% 24%
Oppose 15% 9% 21% 13% 10% 12% 14% 19%
Strongly oppose 18% 4% 30% 6% 7% 11% 14% 27%
Don’t know 14% 11% 11% 15% 15% 15% 12% 10%

The majority of respondents support the means test on the private health insurance rebate for people on higher incomes (53%), with 33% opposed to the reform.

Those on low incomes of less than $31,200 per annum are the most likely to be in favour of the reform, with 67% supporting the means test.  Conversely, those on higher incomes (earning $83,200+ per annum) are the most likely to oppose the means test, with 46% against it and 45% in favour of it.

Looking at the results by voting intention, those most likely to be against the reform are Coalition voters with the majority opposing the means test (51%), whilst Labor voters are the most likely to be in favour of it (76%).  Greens voters trail 11 points behind Labor in favour of the reform at 65%.

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Opinion of NBN

Feb 20, 2012

Q. From what you’ve heard, do you favour or oppose the planned national broadband network (NBN)?

27 Sep 2010 14 Feb 2011 18 Apr 2011 Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total in favour 56% 48% 54% 56% 80% 42% 77%
Total oppose 18% 31% 28% 25% 8% 43% 8%
Strongly favour 27% 19% 22% 20% 39% 10% 28%
Favour 29% 29% 32% 36% 41% 32% 49%
Oppose 12% 16% 13% 15% 7% 24% 8%
Strongly oppose 6% 15% 15% 10% 1% 19% 0%
Don’t know 26% 22% 18% 19% 13% 15% 16%

The results of this week’s poll show that support for the NBN has increased over the course of the last 12 months, returning to 56% (the same level in September 2010).

Since the question was last polled, support for the NBN has risen 2 percentage points to 56% (+2%) and opposition has declined to 25% (-3%).

There is overwhelming majority support from Labor (80%) and Greens (77%) voters, whilst Coalition voters are almost equally divided on the issue: 42% in favour and 43% opposed.

Looking at the results by age, those respondents aged between 55-64 are the most likely to oppose the NBN, though the majority still favour the planned network: 52%/34%.

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Importance of Industries for Providing Jobs

Feb 20, 2012

Q. How important are the following industries for providing jobs for Australians into the future?

Very important Quite important Somewhat important Not very important Don’t know
Mining 64% 24% 7% 2% 3%
Construction 58% 30% 9% 0% 2%
Manufacturing 55% 29% 12% 2% 2%
Tourism 53% 33% 11% 1% 2%
Retail 47% 35% 13% 2% 2%
Hospitality 46% 38% 12% 1% 3%
Finance 39% 38% 18% 3% 3%
Telecommunications 39% 37% 18% 3% 3%

Respondents regard the mining (64%), construction (58%) and manufacturing (55%) industries to be the most important for providing jobs for Australians in the future.

This was followed closely by the tourism (53%), retail (47%) and hospitality (46%) industries.

The finance (39%) and telecommunications (39%) industries are the most likely to be seen as only ‘somewhat important’ (18%) for providing jobs.

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Opinion of Mining Tax

Feb 20, 2012

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the proposed mining tax (called the Minerals Resource Rent Tax) on large profits of mining companies?

12 Jul 2010 5 Sep 2011 21 Nov 2011 Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total approve 50% 46% 51% 55% 80% 39% 74%
Total disapprove 28% 34% 33% 28% 7% 46% 12%
Strongly approve 13% 18% 18% 23% 46% 7% 44%
Approve 37% 28% 33% 32% 34% 32% 30%
Disapprove 18% 18% 20% 17% 6% 26% 9%
Strongly disapprove 10% 16% 13% 11% 1% 20% 3%
Don’t know 22% 19% 15% 17% 13% 14% 14%

Approval for the proposed mining tax has increased over the course of the last 6 months, rising 9 percentage points from 46% in September 2011 to 55% total approval in this week’s poll.

Labor voters are the most in favour of the proposed mining tax, with 80% in favour, followed by Greens voters (74% in favour).  The majority of Coalition voters remain opposed to the proposed tax, with 46% opposed and 39% in favour.

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Federal politics – voting intention

Feb 13, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,906 respondents

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week

This week
Liberal 45% 44% 44% 44%
National 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6% 48% 47% 47% 47%
Labor 38.0% 35% 34% 33% 34%
Greens 11.8% 9% 10% 11% 10%
Other/Independent 6.6% 8% 8% 9% 9%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 54% 54% 54% 54%
Labor 50.1% 46% 46% 46% 46%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Approval of Julia Gillard

Feb 13, 2012

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

19 Jul 2010 20 Dec 2010 14 Mar

2011

14 June 12 Sept 17 Oct 14 Nov 12 Dec 16 Jan 2012 13 Feb
Total approve 52% 43% 41% 34% 28% 34% 37% 34% 37% 36%
Total disapprove 30% 40% 46% 54% 64% 59% 55% 54% 52% 53%
Strongly approve 11% 10% 7% 6% 5% 7% 8% 6% 6% 6%
Approve 41% 33% 34% 28% 23% 27% 29% 28% 31% 30%
Disapprove 17% 24% 22% 29% 28% 27% 25% 25% 27% 26%
Strongly disapprove 13% 16% 24% 25% 36% 32% 30% 29% 25% 27%
Don’t know 18% 17% 13% 13% 8% 7% 9% 11% 12% 11%

Julia Gillard’s approval rating has remained much the same as last month. 36% (down 1%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 53% (up 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -15 to -17 over the last 4 weeks.

79% of Labor voters approve (up 3%) and 14% disapprove (down 1%).

By gender – men 39% approve/53% disapprove, women 34% approve/52% disapprove.

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Approval of Tony Abbott

Feb 13, 2012

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

18 Jan

2010

5 Jul

2010

20 Dec 2010 14 Mar

2011

14 June 12 Sept 17 Oct 14 Nov 12 Dec 16 Jan 2012 13 Feb
Total approve 37% 37% 39% 38% 38% 39% 40% 36% 32% 35% 35%
Total disapprove 37% 47% 39% 47% 48% 50% 51% 52% 53% 51% 53%
Strongly approve 5% 8% 9% 7% 6% 8% 8% 6% 6% 7% 6%
Approve 32% 29% 30% 31% 32% 31% 32% 30% 26% 28% 29%
Disapprove 20% 23% 21% 24% 25% 23% 23% 26% 25% 25% 23%
Strongly disapprove 17% 24% 18% 23% 23% 27% 28% 26% 28% 26% 30%
Don’t know 26% 16% 22% 16% 15% 11% 9% 12% 14% 13% 12%

Tony Abbott’s approval rating has also changed little over the last month. 35% (no change) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 53% (up 2%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -16 to -18 over the last 4 weeks.

67% (down 1%) of Coalition voters approve and 21% (no change) disapprove.

By gender – men 40% approve/52% disapprove, women 31% approve/54% disapprove.

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