Federal politics – voting intention

Jan 16, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,899 respondents

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

Last poll

(19.12.11)

This week
Liberal 45% 45%
National 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6% 47% 48%
Labor 38.0% 35% 35%
Greens 11.8% 9% 9%
Other/Independent 6.6% 8% 8%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

Last poll This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 54% 54%
Labor 50.1% 46% 46%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Federal politics – voting intention

Dec 19, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,896 respondents

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 46% 44% 44% 45%
National 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6% 48% 47% 48% 47%
Labor 38.0% 34% 34% 34% 35%
Greens 11.8% 10% 10% 10% 9%
Other/Independent 6.6% 7% 9% 9% 8%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 55% 54% 55% 54%
Labor 50.1% 45% 46% 45% 46%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Leaders in 12 Months

Dec 19, 2011

Q. Do you think Julia Gillard will still be leading the Labor Party in 12 months time?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Yes 26% 49% 12% 37%
No 55% 31% 76% 45%
Don’t know 19% 21% 12% 18%

Q. Do you think Tony Abbott will still be leading the Liberal Party in 12 months time?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Yes 41% 26% 64% 29%
No 34% 53% 16% 53%
Don’t know 25% 21% 20% 18%

Only 26% believe that Julia Gillard will still be leader of the Labor Party in 12 months time and 55% think she will not. Respondents were more likely to think that Tony Abbott would still be leading his party (41% yes, 34% no).

49% of Labor voters think Julia Gillard will still be leading her party, compared to 64% of Liberal/National voters who think Tony Abbott will still be leading his party.

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Performance of Australian Economy

Dec 19, 2011

Q. How do you think the Australian economy is performing in comparison to other developed countries?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total better 73% 84% 72% 80%
Total worse 7% 3% 8% 1%
A lot better 27% 44% 19% 32%
A little better 46% 40% 53% 48%
About the same 16% 13% 16% 12%
A little worse 5% 2% 5% 1%
A lot worse 2% 1% 3%
Don’t know 4% 1% 3% 6%

If ‘a lot better’ or ‘a little better’ –

Q. How much credit do the following deserve for the current performance of Australia’s economy?

A lot Some A little None Don’t know
The Federal Labor Government 18% 31% 23% 21% 6%
The previous Coalition Government 21% 31% 26% 15% 6%
The booming resources sector 47% 31% 12% 3% 7%
The Reserve Bank 6% 42% 29% 13% 9%

73% think that the Australian economy is performing better than other developed countries and only 7% think it is performing worse.

Respondents give most credit for the performance of the economy to the booming resources sector (78% a lot or some credit). They give similar credit to the Labor Government (49%) and the previous Coalition Government (52%).

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Federal Election

Dec 19, 2011

Q. Do you expect that an early Federal election will be held in 2012?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Yes 32% 24% 42% 26%
No 42% 55% 37% 50%
Don’t know 26% 21% 21% 23%

Respondents were more likely to think there will not be a Federal election next year – 32% expect there will be an election and 42% think there will not.

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Federal politics – voting intention

Dec 12, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,921 respondents

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 44% 45% 44% 44%
National 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6% 47% 48% 47% 48%
Labor 38.0% 35% 34% 34% 34%
Greens 11.8% 10% 11% 10% 10%
Other/Independent 6.6% 8% 8% 9% 9%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 54% 54% 54% 55%
Labor 50.1% 46% 46% 46% 45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Federal politics – voting intention

Dec 5, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,922 respondents

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 43% 46% 45% 44%
National 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6% 46% 48% 48% 47%
Labor 38.0% 35% 34% 34% 34%
Greens 11.8% 9% 10% 11% 10%
Other/Independent 6.6% 9% 7% 8% 9%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 54% 55% 54% 54%
Labor 50.1% 46% 45% 46% 46%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Federal Election

Dec 5, 2011

Q. Do you think the Labor Government should run its full term until 2013 when the next Federal election is due or should a new election be held now?

5 Sept 11 Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Should run to 2013 40% 47% 89% 20% 73%
Should hold election now 48% 41% 7% 74% 16%
Don’t know 12% 12% 4% 6% 11%

47% think that the Labor Government should be allowed to run its full term trough to 2013 and 41% think a new election should be held. This is almost exactly the reverse of the results when this question was previously asked in September when 48% thought an election should be held now and 40% thought the Government should run its full term.

Support for the Government to run its full term has increased among Labor voters (from 82% to 89%) and Liberal/National voters (11% to 20%) but dropped from 80% to 73% for Greens voters.

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