Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,868 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 16/7/12 |
2 weeks ago 30/7/12 |
Last week 6/8/12 |
This week 13/8/12 |
| Liberal |
|
46% |
45% |
46% |
46% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
49% |
49% |
49% |
49% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
31% |
33% |
33% |
32% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
8% |
8% |
8% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
57% |
55% |
56% |
56% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
43% |
45% |
44% |
44% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,832 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 9/7/12 |
2 weeks ago 23/7/12 |
Last week 30/7/12 |
This week 6/8/12 |
| Liberal |
|
46% |
45% |
45% |
46% |
| National |
|
4% |
4% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
49% |
49% |
49% |
49% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
31% |
33% |
33% |
33% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
11% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
9% |
8% |
8% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
56% |
56% |
55% |
56% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
44% |
44% |
45% |
44% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
Party with Better Policies
Q. Which party do you think has the better policies for the following groups of people?
|
Labor Party |
Liberal Party |
No difference |
Don’t know |
|
| Pensioners |
32% |
21% |
30% |
17% |
| Unemployed people |
36% |
18% |
29% |
17% |
| People with disabilities |
32% |
16% |
30% |
22% |
| Carers |
30% |
18% |
30% |
22% |
| People on low incomes |
40% |
18% |
26% |
16% |
| All working people |
29% |
30% |
26% |
15% |
The Labor Party was thought to have better policies than the Liberal Party on all issues except “all working people” where both parties had similar ratings. In particular the Labor Party was thought to have better policies for people on low incomes (40% Labor/18% Liberal), unemployed people (36%/18%) and people with disabilities (32%/16%).
Of those aged 55+, 40% thought Labor had better policies for pensioners and 23% thought the Liberals had better policies.
30% think the Liberals have better policies for all working people and 29% think Labor has better policies. Full-time workers are more likely to think The Liberals have better policies (37% Liberal/24% Labor) which part-time workers are more likely to favour Labor (37% Labor/29% Liberal).
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,837 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 2/7/12 |
2 weeks ago 16/7/12 |
Last week 23/7/12 |
This week 30/7/12 |
| Liberal |
45% |
46% |
45% |
45% |
|
| National |
3% |
3% |
4% |
3% |
|
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
49% |
49% |
49% |
49% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
32% |
31% |
33% |
33% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
8% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
56% |
57% |
56% |
55% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
44% |
43% |
44% |
45% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.
Concern about Liberals Bringing Back WorkChoices
Q. If the Liberals won the election and reintroduced WorkChoices or similar laws, how concerned would you be?
|
31 May 10 |
12 July 10 |
21 Nov 11 |
Total 23 Jul 12 |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Work full time |
Work part time |
|
| Very concerned |
28% |
29% |
26% |
30% |
60% |
7% |
39% |
33% |
28% |
| Quite concerned |
17% |
19% |
15% |
16% |
16% |
14% |
17% |
16% |
21% |
| A little concerned |
20% |
16% |
20% |
15% |
11% |
18% |
20% |
14% |
17% |
| Not concerned |
24% |
25% |
27% |
26% |
7% |
48% |
5% |
28% |
19% |
| Don’t know |
11% |
11% |
11% |
14% |
6% |
12% |
20% |
11% |
15% |
Respondents were also more concerned about the re-introduction of WorkChoices than last year. 46% (up 5%) would be quite or very concerned if WorkChoices or similar laws were re-introduced and 41% (down 6%) were only a little or not concerned.
76% of Labor voters and 56% of Greens voters would be concerned. 66% of Liberal/National voters would be a little/not concerned and 21% concerned. 49% of full-time workers and part-time workers said they would be very/quite concerned.
51% of those aged 45-64 said they would be very/quite concerned.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,876 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 12/6/12 |
2 weeks ago 25/6/12 |
Last week 2/7/12 |
This week 9/7/12 |
| Liberal |
|
46% |
46% |
45% |
46% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
4% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
49% |
49% |
49% |
49% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
32% |
33% |
32% |
31% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
11% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
8% |
9% |
9% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
56% |
56% |
56% |
56% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
44% |
44% |
44% |
44% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,842 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 21/5/12 |
2 weeks ago 4/6/12 |
Last week 12/6/12 |
This week 18/6/12 |
| Liberal |
|
46% |
47% |
46% |
46% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
49% |
50% |
49% |
49% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
33% |
33% |
32% |
33% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
8% |
7% |
9% |
8% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
56% |
56% |
56% |
56% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
44% |
44% |
44% |
44% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.
State of the Economy
Q. Overall, how would you describe the current state of the Australian economy?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total good |
35% |
56% |
24% |
54% |
| Total poor |
29% |
13% |
42% |
18% |
| Very good |
6% |
13% |
2% |
17% |
| Good |
29% |
43% |
22% |
37% |
| Neither good nor poor |
33% |
30% |
33% |
28% |
| Poor |
20% |
9% |
29% |
14% |
| Very poor |
9% |
4% |
13% |
4% |
| Don’t know |
2% |
2% |
* |
1% |
35% described the economy as good or very good and 29% poor/very poor – 33% said it was neither.
Those most likely to think the economy was good/very good were aged 18-34 (41%) and people with incomes over $1,600pw (44%).
Those most likely to think the economy was poor/very poor were aged 55+ (34%) and people with incomes of $600-$1,000pw (36%).
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