Essential Report, federal politics, Julia Gillard, Labor, Liberal, malcolm turnbull, Polling, polls, preferred PM, Prime Minister
Q. If Malcolm Turnbull was the leader of the Liberal Party (and Julia Gillard was leader of the Labor Party), to which party will you probably give your first preference vote if a Federal Election was held today? If not sure, which party would you lean toward?
| First preference | Total | Gave vote |
| Liberal | 44% | 49% |
| National | 4% | 4% |
| Total Lib/Nat | 48% | 53% |
| Labor | 28% | 31% |
| Greens | 7% | 8% |
| Other/Independent | 7% | 8% |
| Don’t know | 10% |
If Malcolm Turnbull was leader of the Liberal Party (and Julia Gillard was leader of the Labor Party) 31% said they would give their first preference vote to Labor (down 1%) and 53% to the Liberal or National Parties (up 5%). The Greens vote drops 3% to 8%.
In two party preferred terms, this equates to 41% Labor/59% Liberal/National – a swing of 4% to Liberal/National.
Most of the increased Liberal/National vote comes from Labor voters – 13% of Labor voters said they would vote Liberal if Malcolm Turnbull was leader.
The group with the largest shift to Liberal/National was people on higher incomes.
approval, Essential Report, Julia Gillard, Labor, leader attributes, Liberal, Polling, polls, Prime Minister, tony abbott
Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Prime Minister, Julia Gillard?
| 5 Jul 10 | 4 Oct 10 | 7 Feb 11 | 27 Jun 11 | Difference | |
| Intelligent | 87% | 81% | 75% | 73% | -2% |
| Hard-working | 89% | 82% | 76% | 75% | -1% |
| A capable leader | 72% | 59% | 52% | 42% | -10% |
| Arrogant | 37% | 39% | 44% | 48% | +4% |
| Out of touch with ordinary people | 35% | 44% | 50% | 60% | +10% |
| Understands the problems facing Australia | 68% | 55% | 52% | 44% | -8% |
| Visionary | 48% | 38% | 30% | 26% | -4% |
| Superficial | 51% | 52% | +1% | ||
| Good in a crisis | 61% | 46% | 46% | 41% | -5% |
| Narrow-minded | 28% | 35% | 43% | 46% | +3% |
| More honest than most politicians | 45% | 37% | 37% | 29% | -8% |
| Trustworthy | 49% | 42% | 40% | 30% | -10% |
Julia Gillard’s key attributes were hard-working (75%), intelligent (73%) and out of touch with ordinary people (60%).
Major changes since this question was asked in February were an increase of 10% for out of touch (to 60%) and decreases for a capable leader (down 10% to 42%) and trustworthy (down 10% to 30%).
approval, Essential Report, Federal Government, Julia Gillard, Labor, leader attributes, Liberal, Polling, polls, Prime Minister, tony abbott
Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul 10 | 4 Oct 10 | 7 Feb 11 | 27 Jun 11 | Change | |
| Intelligent | 70% | 71% | 64% | 61% | -3% |
| Hard-working | 76% | 78% | 72% | 75% | +3% |
| A capable leader | 47% | 52% | 48% | 45% | -3% |
| Arrogant | 59% | 60% | 58% | 60% | +2% |
| Out of touch with ordinary people | 57% | 53% | 54% | 57% | +3% |
| Understands the problems facing Australia | 50% | 53% | 50% | 48% | -2% |
| Visionary | 32% | 31% | 27% | 27% | – |
| Superficial | 45% | 49% | +4% | ||
| Good in a crisis | 40% | 42% | 41% | 40% | -1% |
| Narrow-minded | 56% | 53% | 51% | 54% | +3% |
| More honest than most politicians | 33% | 32% | 31% | 32% | +1% |
| Trustworthy | 33% | 35% | 34% | 32% | -2% |
Tony Abbott’s key attributes were hard-working (75%), intelligent (61%) and arrogant (60%).
There have only been minor changes since this question was asked in February.
2PP, approval, Essential Report, federal politics, Julia Gillard, Labor, leader attributes, leaders, Liberal, Polling, polls, Prime Minister, tony abbott
| Julia Gillard | Tony Abbott | Difference | |
| Intelligent | 73% | 61% | +12% |
| Hard-working | 75% | 75% | – |
| A capable leader | 42% | 45% | -3% |
| Arrogant | 48% | 60% | -12% |
| Out of touch with ordinary people | 60% | 57% | +3% |
| Understands the problems facing Australia | 44% | 48% | -4% |
| Visionary | 26% | 27% | -1% |
| Superficial | 52% | 49% | +3% |
| Good in a crisis | 41% | 40% | +1% |
| Narrow-minded | 46% | 54% | -8% |
| More honest than most politicians | 29% | 32% | -3% |
| Trustworthy | 30% | 32% | -2% |
Julia Gillard rates substantially higher than Tony Abbott as intelligent (+12%) and lower on the negative attributes of arrogant (-12%) and narrow-minded (-8%). There were only minor differences on the other attributes.
Greens, Julia Gillard, Labor, leadership, Liberal, Liberal Party, Nationals, Network Ten, Polling, polls, Prime Minister
Q. Do you think Australia has become a better or worse place in the year since Julia Gillard became PM? (This question has been commissioned by Network Ten)
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Men | Women | Age
18-34 |
Aged
35-54 |
Aged 55+ | |
| A better place | 13% | 32% | 4% | 22% | 16% | 11% | 16% | 11% | 11% |
| A worse place | 51% | 17% | 82% | 27% | 57% | 46% | 42% | 53% | 61% |
| A much better place | 3% | 9% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% |
| A better place | 10% | 23% | 3% | 20% | 11% | 9% | 14% | 8% | 8% |
| A worse place | 32% | 14% | 47% | 24% | 34% | 30% | 31% | 33% | 32% |
| A much worse place | 19% | 3% | 35% | 3% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 20% | 29% |
| No change | 29% | 44% | 12% | 46% | 24% | 34% | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Don’t know | 7% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 9% | 12% | 6% | 3% |
Half the people surveyed (51%) think Australia has become a worse place in the year since Julia Gillard became PM. 13% think it has become a better place and 29% say there has been no change.
82% of Liberal/National voters think it has become a worse place while 46% of Greens voters and 44% of Labor voters think there has been no change.
The most negative groups were men (57% worse) and those aged 55+ (61% worse).
economy, Essential Report, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls
Q. Australia is currently experiencing a boom in the mining industry. Apart from mining, how would you rate the rest of Australia’s economy?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total good | 31% | 44% | 21% | 49% |
| Total poor | 26% | 12% | 35% | 17% |
| Very good | 4% | 6% | 2% | 8% |
| Good | 27% | 38% | 19% | 41% |
| Average | 40% | 42% | 43% | 34% |
| Poor | 18% | 9% | 23% | 15% |
| Very poor | 8% | 3% | 12% | 2% |
| Don’t know | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
31% rate the Australian economy (excluding mining) as good and 26% rate it poor. 40% rate it average. Labor voters (44% good/26% poor) and Greens voters (49%/17%) are most positive about the economy. Liberal/National voters rate the economy 21% good/35% poor.
36% of those aged 18-34 rate the economy good compared to 25% of those aged 55+.
2PP, Election, Essential Media, Essential Report, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, voting, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 2068
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 44% | 44% | 44% | 45% | |
| National | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6 | 46% | 46% | 46% | 47% |
| Labor | 38.0 | 34% | 34% | 34% | 32% |
| Greens | 11.8 | 12% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6 | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 53% | 53% | 54% | 55% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 47% | 47% | 46% | 45% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
approach to asylum seekers, asylum seekers, Essential Report, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Malaysia, Nationals, Polling, polls
Q. The Government has proposed sending asylum seekers arriving by boat to Malaysia for processing and the Opposition has proposed sending asylum seekers to Nauru. Which of these two options do you favour?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Malaysia | 16% | 29% | 12% | 9% |
| Nauru | 34% | 18% | 55% | 12% |
| Neither | 30% | 34% | 18% | 61% |
| Don’t know | 20% | 20% | 14% | 18% |
34% favoured sending asylum seekers to Nauru and 16% favoured Malaysia, with a further 30% selecting ‘neither’.
Labor (34%) and Green voters (61%) were most likely to favour ‘neither’ – Liberal/National voters were most likely to favour Nauru (55%).
Males (37%) were more likely than females (31%) to favour Nauru. Females were more likely to select Don’t Know (25%).
Older respondents were more likely to favour Nauru – 48% of those aged 55+.
Younger respondents were more likely to select ‘neither’ – 37% of those aged 18-34.