Australian economy, economy, Essential Report, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls
Q. Over the next 12 months do you think economic conditions in Australia will get better, get worse or stay much the same?
| 1 Dec 08 | 15 Jun 09 | 5 Oct 09 | 18 Jan 10 | 29 Mar 10 | 28 Jun 10 | 18 Oct 10 | 4 April 11 | 4 Jul 11 | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total better | 21% | 43% | 66% | 53% | 54% | 33% | 40% | 27% | 22% | 37% | 15% | 34% |
| Total worse | 61% | 37% | 15% | 19% | 19% | 31% | 30% | 37% | 49% | 28% | 65% | 34% |
| Get a lot better | 2% | 5% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 8% | 1% | 1% |
| Get a little better | 19% | 38% | 58% | 44% | 45% | 28% | 34% | 23% | 19% | 29% | 14% | 33% |
| Get a little worse | 45% | 28% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 23% | 20% | 27% | 31% | 22% | 37% | 26% |
| Get a lot worse | 16% | 9% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 18% | 6% | 28% | 8% |
| Stay much the same | 13% | 17% | 15% | 24% | 22% | 30% | 24% | 27% | 25% | 33% | 18% | 29% |
| No opinion | 5% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 8% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 3% |
Optimism about Australia’s economic outlook has declined again in the last 3 months. 22% think economic conditions in Australia will get better over the next 12 months and 49% think they will get worse – a net decline of 17% since this question was last asked in April. This is the most negative result recorded since December 2008.
Younger people are more optimistic than older people – of those aged under 35, 29% think conditions will get better and 42% worse – for those aged 55+, only 15% think it will get better and 58% worse.
37% of Labor voters think conditions will get better and 28% worse while 15% of Coalition voters think conditions will get better and 65% worse.
Essential Report, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Personal financial situation, Polling, polls
Q. Over the next 12 months do you think your personal financial situation will get better, get worse or stay much the same?
| 29 Mar 10 | 28 Jun 10 | 18 Oct 10 | 4 April 11 | 4 Jul 11 | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total better | 40% | 29% | 33% | 32% | 28% | 34% | 25% | 41% |
| Total worse | 23% | 31% | 29% | 31% | 36% | 27% | 45% | 22% |
| Get a lot better | 8% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 5% | 9% | 3% | 7% |
| Get a little better | 32% | 24% | 27% | 25% | 23% | 25% | 22% | 34% |
| Get a little worse | 17% | 21% | 21% | 22% | 23% | 18% | 28% | 18% |
| Get a lot worse | 6% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 13% | 9% | 17% | 4% |
| Stay much the same | 33% | 37% | 32% | 32% | 32% | 37% | 29% | 32% |
| No opinion | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 5% |
28% think their own personal financial situation will get better over the next 12 months and 36% worse – 32% think they will stay much the same.
This is somewaht less optimistic than the April result – a decrease from net +1% to -8%.
Among full-time workers, 32% think their situation will get better and 34% worse while those who are not working are more pessimistic – 23% better/40% worse.
For those aged 55+, 12% expect their financial situation to get better and 50% worse while for those aged under 35, 43% expect it to get better and 25% worse.
Essential Report, Greens, job security, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls
Q. How concerned are you that you or some member of your immediate family will lose their job in the next year or so: very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not at all concerned?
| 16 Feb 09 | 27 Apr 09 | 8 Jun 09 | 5 Oct 09 | 18 Jan 10 | 29 Mar 10 | 28 Jun 10 | 18 Oct 10 | 4 April 11 | 4 Jul 11 | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total concerned | 62% | 67% | 52% | 49% | 45% | 39% | 43% | 40% | 43% | 45% | 45% | 50% | 37% |
| Very concerned | 22% | 24% | 13% | 14% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 11% | 11% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 11% |
| Somewhat concerned | 40% | 43% | 39% | 35% | 33% | 29% | 34% | 29% | 32% | 32% | 32% | 37% | 26% |
| Not at all concerned | 29% | 23% | 35% | 40% | 40% | 45% | 38% | 42% | 43% | 39% | 37% | 39% | 47% |
| Don’t know | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 8% | 7% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 11% | 5% | 7% |
| No employees in the immediate family | 5% | 5% | 8% | 5% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 9% |
45% are very or somewhat concerned that they or someone in their family may lose their job in the next year. This is only a slight change (+2%) since this question was last asked in April.
45% of those in full-time employment and 56% of those in part-time employment said they were very/somewhat concerned.
business, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, voter interests
Q. Do you think the Labor Party is more concerned about the interests of big business or voters – or do they balance the interests of both?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| More concerned about big business | 33% | 18% | 41% | 30% |
| More concerned about voters | 22% | 18% | 29% | 20% |
| Balance interests of both | 23% | 50% | 10% | 27% |
| Don’t know | 22% | 14% | 20% | 23% |
33% think the Labor Party are more concerned about the interests of big business and 22% think they are more concerned about voters’ interests. 23% think they balance the interests of both.
business, Essential Report, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, voter interests
Q. Do you think the Liberal Party is more concerned about the interests of big business or voters – or do they balance the interests of both?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| More concerned about big business | 41% | 68% | 18% | 67% |
| More concerned about voters | 13% | 8% | 20% | 3% |
| Balance interests of both | 30% | 8% | 56% | 11% |
| Don’t know | 15% | 16% | 7% | 19% |
41% think the Liberal Party are more concerned about the interests of big business and 13% think they are more concerned about voters’ interests. 30% think they balance the interests of both.
Essential Report, Greens, Labor, Liberal, marriage equality, Nationals, Polling, polls, same sex marriage
Q. Do you think people of the same sex should or should not be allowed to marry?
| 15 Nov 2010 | 14 Mar 2011 | 4 Jul 11 | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Should be allowed to marry | 53% | 49% | 54% | 65% | 41% | 85% |
| Should not be allowed to marry | 36% | 40% | 35% | 23% | 48% | 9% |
| Don’t know | 11% | 10% | 11% | 12% | 10% | 6% |
54% think that people of the same sex should be allowed to marry and 35% think they should not. This represents an increase in support for same-sex marriage since this question was asked in March – however, similar to the result from last November.
Strongest support came from women (62%) and those aged under 35 (63%).
2PP, Essential Report, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, two party preferred, voting, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,874
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 44% | 44% | 45% | 45% | |
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6 | 47% | 46% | 47% | 48% |
| Labor | 38.0 | 34% | 34% | 32% | 32% |
| Greens | 11.8 | 12% | 12% | 12% | 11% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6 | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 54% | 54% | 55% | 55% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 46% | 46% | 45% | 45% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
approval, Essential Report, federal politics, Julia Gillard, kevin rudd, Labor, Liberal, Polling, polls, preferred PM, Prime Minister
Q. If Kevin Rudd was the leader of the Labor Party (and Tony Abbott was leader of the Liberal Party), to which party will you probably give your first preference vote if a Federal Election was held today? If not sure, which party would you lean toward?
| First preference | Total | Gave vote |
| Liberal | 36% | 39% |
| National | 3% | 3% |
| Total Lib/Nat | 39% | 42% |
| Labor | 41% | 45% |
| Greens | 7% | 8% |
| Other/Independent | 5% | 6% |
| Don’t know | 8% |
If Kevin Rudd was leader of the Labor Party (and Tony Abbott was leader of the Liberal Party) 45% said they would give their first preference vote to Labor (up 13%) and 42% to the Liberal or National Parties (down 6%). The Greens vote drops 3% to 8%.
In two party preferred terms, this equates to 53% Labor/47% Liberal/National – a swing of 8% to Labor.
Most of the increased Labor vote comes from Liberal/National voters – 12% of Liberal/National voters said they would vote Labor if Kevin Rudd was leader.
Groups with the largest shifts to Labor were women, aged under 35, NSW and lower incomes.