Benefit of NBN

Nov 29, 2010

Q. Thinking about the Government’s plan to build a national broadband network, how much benefit will a national broadband network be to-

Total benefit Great

benefit

Some benefit Little benefit Don’t know Total benefit

April 09

Australian businesses 84% 55% 29% 8% 8% 80%
Schools 78% 48% 30% 14% 8% na
The general public overall 78% 44% 34% 15% 8% 76%
Children 72% 39% 33% 19% 9% na
The Australian economy 71% 39% 32% 18% 11% 65%
You personally 65% 33% 32% 27% 8% 66%
The economy of your local community 65% 32% 33% 24% 12% na

The NBN is thought to be of most benefit to Australian business (84%), schools (78%) and the general public overall (78%). Since this question was last asked in April 2009, perceptions of benefit have increased for Australian business (+4%) and the Australian economy (+6%).

65% think they will personally benefit from the NBN. Those most likely to think they will benefit personally are aged under 35 (74%) Labor voters (83%), Greens voters (80%) and full-time workers (71%).

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Christmas Spending

Nov 29, 2010

Q. And now about Christmas spending – compared to last year, do you expect to be spending more on gifts at Christmas, less or much the same?

Dec 08 Dec 09 Nov 10
Will spend more 3% 11% 10%
Will be spending less 38% 38% 38%
Spend much the same 55% 47% 48%
Don’t know 5% 4% 5%

Views about spending on gifts at Christmas remain much the same as last year. 10% say they will spend more, 38% spend less and 48% much the same.

16% of those aged under 35 say they will spend more, 46% of those aged 35-44 will spend less and 59% of those aged 55+ will spend much the same. There is no significant relationship between changes in spending and income.

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Julia, Blokes and the Bradley Effect

Nov 23, 2010

First Published on The Drum 23/11/2010

As if dealing with four independent blokes, a Green bloke and a blokey bloke in charge of the Opposition is not enough, now Julia Gillard is developing a problem with blokes outside the Parliament.

Having politely indicated that they were happy with a female Prime Minister in the lead-up to the federal election, this week’s Essential Report picks up sharp moves in the attitudes of the brotherhood.

In the absence of any compelling policy development to explain the surge, we are left with the Bradley Effect, the theory created to explain why an African-American candidate lost the 1982 race for Governor of California despite having a massive lead in the polls.

The details of the Bradley Effect later, first some numbers from this week’s Essential Report.

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Federal politics – voting intention

Nov 22, 2010

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

sample size = 1,869

First preference/leaning to 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 39% 41% 42% 42% 42%
National 2% 3% 4% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 41% 44% 46% 45% 45%
Labor 40% 41% 39% 39% 38%
Greens 10% 8% 8% 10% 10%
Other/Independent 9% 7% 7% 7% 8%
2PP 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week

This week
Total Lib/Nat 48% 50% 51% 51% 51%
Labor 52% 50% 49% 49% 49%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Approval of Julia Gillard

Nov 22, 2010

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

Kevin Rudd Julia Gillard
31 May 5 Jul 19 Jul 26 Jul 2 Aug 9 Aug 16 Aug 20 Sep 18 Oct 22 Nov
Total approve 41% 48% 52% 49% 46% 45% 46% 45% 45% 43%
Total disapprove 47% 27% 30% 33% 38% 40% 40% 37% 37% 38%
Strongly approve 7% 14% 11% 12% 10% 13% 13% 12% 10% 7%
Approve 34% 34% 41% 37% 36% 32% 33% 33% 36% 36%
Disapprove 25% 13% 17% 19% 23% 24% 24% 21% 20% 23%
Strongly disapprove 22% 14% 13% 14% 15% 16% 16% 16% 17% 15%
Don’t know 12% 26% 18% 17% 15% 15% 13% 19% 18% 18%

43% (down 2%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 38% (up 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from +8 to +5.

87% of Labor voters approve and 4% disapprove.

By gender – men 39% approve/44% disapprove, women 47% approve/33% disapprove. Men have shifted from a net rating of  +4 to -5 while women have changed from +10 to +14.

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Approval of Tony Abbott

Nov 22, 2010

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

18 Jan 22 Feb 29 Mar 3 May 31 May 5 Jul 2 Aug 16 Aug 20 Sep 18 Oct 22 Nov
Total approve 37% 45% 33% 39% 35% 37% 38% 41% 43% 39% 40%
Total disapprove 37% 36% 50% 43% 50% 47% 48% 44% 37% 45% 40%
Strongly approve 5% 12% 8% 5% 5% 8% 8% 9% 12% 8% 6%
Approve 32% 33% 25% 34% 30% 29% 30% 32% 31% 31% 34%
Disapprove 20% 20% 28% 24% 28% 23% 27% 22% 21% 22% 22%
Strongly disapprove 17% 16% 22% 19% 22% 24% 21% 22% 16% 23% 18%
Don’t know 26% 18% 16% 18% 16% 16% 14% 15% 19% 17% 19%

40% (up 1%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 40% (down 5%) disapprove – a shift from a net rating from -6 to level.

78% of Coalition voters approve and 12% disapprove.

By gender – men 46% approve/38% disapprove, women 35% approve/43% disapprove. Men have shifted from a net rating of  -7 to +8 while women have changed from -4 to -8.

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Better Prime Minister

Nov 22, 2010

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

5 Jul 10 19 Jul 10 26 Jul 10 2 Aug 10 9 Aug 10 16 Aug 10 20 Sep 10 18 Oct 10 22 Nov 10 Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott

21 Jun 10

Julia Gillard 53% 50% 51% 48% 45% 46% 47% 49% 45% 94% 6% 76% 47%
Tony Abbott 26% 27% 26% 30% 33% 35% 35% 33% 34% 1% 78% 3% 30%
Don’t know 21% 23% 23% 22% 21% 19% 18% 17% 21% 5% 17% 21% 23%

45% (down 4%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 34% (up 1%) prefer Tony Abbott – a closing of the gap from 16% to 11% since last month’s figures.

Men favour Julia Gillard over Tony Abbott 41%/40% and women 49%/28%.

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Watching Live Sport on TV

Nov 22, 2010

Q. How often do you watch live sport on free-to-air TV?

Q. How often do you watch live sport on pay TV?

FTA Pay
More than three times a week 11% 7%
Two or three times a week 13% 5%
About once a week 21% 8%
About once a month 7% 4%
Less often 9% 6%
It varies, depending on the time of year 20% 10%
Total watch 80% 39%
Never 18% 59%
Can’t say 2% 2%

80% say they watch live sport on free-to-air TV and 39% watch on pay TV.

45% watch at least once a week on free-to-air TV and 20% watch at least once a week on pay TV.

57% of men and 31% of women watch on FTA TV at least once a week, while 25% of men and 14% of women watch on pay TV at least once a week.

The age groups most likely to watch FTA at least once a week are 18-24 (52%) and 35-44 (49%) while those least likely are 65+ (39%) and 25-34 (39%).

There were no substantial age differences for those watching on pay TV.

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