Federal politics – voting intention

Jun 20, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

sample size = 2068

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 44% 44% 44% 45%
National 3% 2% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6 46% 46% 46% 47%
Labor 38.0 34% 34% 34% 32%
Greens 11.8 12% 12% 12% 12%
Other/Independent 6.6 8% 8% 8% 9%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 53% 53% 54% 55%
Labor 50.1% 47% 47% 46% 45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Federal politics – voting intention

Jun 6, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

sample size = 1,929

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 44% 44% 44% 44%
National 3% 3% 3% 2%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6 47% 46% 47% 46%
Labor 38.0 35% 34% 34% 34%
Greens 11.8 10% 12% 12% 12%
Other/Independent 6.6 8% 8% 8% 8%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 54% 53% 54% 53%
Labor 50.1% 46% 47% 46% 47%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Performance of Tony Abbott

Jun 6, 2011

Q. Which of the following statements is closest to your view about the performance of Tony Abbott as Opposition leader?

7 Mar 11 Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Tony Abbott is performing the role of Opposition leader well and is keeping the Government accountable 41% 42% 11% 78% 13%
Tony Abbott is just opposing everything and is obstructing the work of the Government 43% 44% 78% 13% 73%
Don’t know 16% 15% 11% 10% 14%

42% believe that Tony Abbott is performing the role of Opposition leader well and is keeping the Government accountable and 44% think he is just opposing everything and is obstructing the work of the Government. These figures have not changed significantly since March and views very much follow party preferences.

45% of men think he is performing the role of Opposition leader well compared to 38% of women and 51% of those aged 55+ think he is just opposing everything compared to 40% of those aged under 35.

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Balance of Power

Jun 6, 2011

Q. Do you think the independents and Greens holding the balance of power in Parliament has been good or bad for Australia?

7 Mar 11 Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total good 27% 28% 40% 11% 77%
Total bad 41% 39% 19% 68% 6%
Very good 7% 9% 11% 3% 40%
Good 20% 19% 29% 8% 37%
Neither good nor bad 33% 33% 41% 21% 17%
Bad 22% 21% 13% 33% 5%
Very bad 19% 18% 6% 35% 1%

28% of respondents think the independents and Greens holding the balance of power in Parliament has been good for Australia and 39% bad. This is very similar to the results obtained for this question in March. The only substantial change is that Labor voters are now more positive – in March they responded 33% good/25% bad.

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Cost of Living

Jun 6, 2011

Q. What do you think is the main reason for the increasing cost of living?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
The strong Australian dollar 17% 30% 9% 17%
Excessive company profits 18% 24% 10% 27%
Lack of competition 14% 18% 9% 24%
Economic management of the Federal Government 28% 8% 51% 9%
Economic management of State Governments 6% 3% 8% 6%
Wage increases 4% 3% 4% 3%
Don’t know 14% 14% 8% 14%

28% believe that economic management of the Federal Government is the main reason for the increasing cost of living. 18% blame excessive company profits and 17% the strong Australian dollar. Only 4% said wage increases.

Most of those blaming the Federal Government were Liberal/National voters. Labor voters nominated the strong Australian dollar and excessive company profits while Greens votes said excessive company profits and lack of competition.

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Interests Represented by Parties

May 30, 2011

Q. Which political party do you think best represents the interests of –

Labor Liberal Greens Don’t know
Families with young children 34% 31% 5% 29%
Students 30% 28% 10% 33%
Working people on average incomes 40% 32% 5% 23%
Working people on low incomes 43% 27% 6% 24%
Working people on high incomes 13% 63% 2% 22%
People on welfare 38% 23% 8% 30%
Pensioners 33% 28% 5% 34%
Small businesses and self-employed 20% 47% 4% 29%
Big business 13% 62% 2% 23%
The next generation of Australians 19% 31% 17% 33%
Indigenous people 23% 21% 16% 40%
Ethnic communities 22% 21% 15% 42%
Rural and regional Australians 18% 34% 11% 36%

The Labor Party is considered the party which best represents the interests of working people on low and average incomes, people on welfare and pensioners. The Liberal Party is considered best at representing the interests of people on high incomes, big business, small business and self-employed, rural and regional Australians and the next generation. The Greens’ main strengths are in representing the next generation, indigenous people and ethnic communities.

There was little difference between the major parties in terms of representing the interests of families with young children, students, indigenous people and ethnic communities.

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Best Leader of the Labor Party

May 30, 2011

Q. Which of the following do you think would make the best leader of the Labor Party?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Julia Gillard 23% 51% 10% 26%
Kevin Rudd 32% 31% 31% 31%
Wayne Swan 2% 1% 3% 3%
Greg Combet 4% 5% 3% 6%
Bill Shorten 3% 3% 3% 4%
Someone else 19% 5% 31% 11%
Don’t know 17% 5% 18% 19%

32% think Kevin Rudd would make the best leader of the Labor Party and 23% prefer Julia Gillard. Julia Gillard is preferred by 51% of Labor voters compared to 31% for Kevin Rudd. Men prefer Kevin Rudd over Julia Gillard 34% to 21% and women by 30% to 25%.

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Support for Carbon Pricing

May 30, 2011

Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s recent announcement to introduce a carbon pricing scheme from 1 July 2012, which will require industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?

7 March 14 March 28 March 18 April 23 May 30 May Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total support 35% 38% 34% 39% 41% 38% 62% 17% 62%
Total oppose 48% 49% 51% 49% 44% 48% 22% 73% 23%
Strongly support 9% 12% 12% 13% 14% 14% 26% 4% 29%
Support 26% 26% 22% 26% 27% 24% 36% 13% 33%
Oppose 19% 17% 19% 15% 15% 19% 13% 23% 17%
Strongly oppose 29% 32% 32% 34% 29% 29% 9% 50% 6%
Don’t know 18% 13% 15% 12% 15% 15% 16% 11% 14%

38% support the Government’s proposed carbon pricing scheme and 48% oppose. Although a change from last week’s figures this is much the same as recorded in the April poll. It is supported by 62% of Labor and Greens voters but opposed by 73% of coalition voters.

By age, those aged under 35 split 44% support/35% oppose, and those aged 55+ split 33% support/58% oppose.

For those who believe that climate change is happening and is caused by human activity 60% support and 24% oppose. For those who believe that we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate 13% support and 80% oppose

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