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  • Jul, 2011

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    Approval of Tony Abbott

    Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

    18 Jan

    2010

    29 Mar 5 Jul 20 Sep 20 Dec 17 Jan 2011 14 Feb 14 Mar 11 Apr 9 May 14 June 11 July
    Total approve 37% 33% 37% 43% 39% 42% 38% 38% 36% 42% 38% 39%
    Total disapprove 37% 50% 47% 37% 39% 37% 46% 47% 48% 44% 48% 49%
    Strongly approve 5% 8% 8% 12% 9% 7% 8% 7% 7% 8% 6% 6%
    Approve 32% 25% 29% 31% 30% 35% 30% 31% 29% 34% 32% 33%
    Disapprove 20% 28% 23% 21% 21% 22% 24% 24% 25% 25% 25% 24%
    Strongly disapprove 17% 22% 24% 16% 18% 15% 22% 23% 23% 19% 23% 25%
    Don’t know 26% 16% 16% 19% 22% 20% 16% 16% 17% 14% 15% 11%

    39% (up 1%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 49% (up 1%) disapprove – no change in net rating (-10%) over the last 4 weeks.

    73% of Coalition voters approve and 19% disapprove.

    By gender – men 44% approve/48% disapprove, women 35% approve/51% disapprove.

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  • Jul, 2011

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    Better Prime Minister

    Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

    5 Jul 2010 17 Jan 2011 14 Feb 14 Mar 11 Apr 9 May 14 June 11 July Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott

    21 Jun 10

    Julia Gillard 53% 47% 48% 44% 42% 43% 41% 37% 85% 6% 68% 47%
    Tony Abbott 26% 32% 31% 33% 33% 35% 36% 39% 5% 75% 9% 30%
    Don’t know 21% 21% 20% 23% 24% 22% 24% 24% 10% 19% 24% 23%

    37% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 39% prefer Tony Abbott – the first time that Tony Abbott has been preferred over Julia Gillard – a net decrease for Julia Gillard of 7% on last month’s figures (from +5% to -2%).

    Men prefer Tony Abbott 42%/36% and women favour Julia Gillard 38%/36%.

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  • Jul, 2011

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    Support for Carbon Pricing

    Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s proposal to introduce a carbon pricing scheme from 1 July 2012, which will require industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?

    7 March 14 March 28 March 18 April 23 May 30 May 14 June 11 July Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
    Total support 35% 38% 34% 39% 41% 38% 38% 35% 65% 15% 73%
    Total oppose 48% 49% 51% 49% 44% 48% 49% 53% 20% 79% 21%
    Strongly support 9% 12% 12% 13% 14% 14% 13% 11% 23% 3% 35%
    Support 26% 26% 22% 26% 27% 24% 25% 24% 42% 12% 38%
    Oppose 19% 17% 19% 15% 15% 19% 19% 19% 15% 23% 16%
    Strongly oppose 29% 32% 32% 34% 29% 29% 30% 34% 5% 56% 5%
    Don’t know 18% 13% 15% 12% 15% 15% 13% 12% 16% 7% 7%

    35% (down 3%) support the Government’s proposed carbon pricing scheme and 53% (up 4%) oppose. It is supported by 65% of Labor voters and 73% of Greens voters but opposed by 79% of coalition voters.

    By age, those aged under 35 split 40% support/43% oppose, and those aged 55+ split 33% support/59% oppose.

    • note that these result reflect opinions prior to the announcement of the details of carbon pricing.

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  • Jul, 2011

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    Voluntary Voting

    Q. If voting at elections was voluntary (i.e. not compulsory) – how likely would you be to vote in the next Federal election?

    Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
    Total definitely/probably vote 82% 85% 89% 78%
    Total definitely/probably not vote 14% 12% 9% 19%
    Would definitely vote 59% 62% 65% 61%
    Would probably vote 23% 23% 24% 17%
    Probably wouldn’t vote 10% 8% 7% 18%
    Definitely wouldn’t vote 4% 4% 2% 1%
    Don’t know 4% 3% 1% 3%

    82% said they would definitely or probably vote if voting was voluntary. 14% said they definitely or probably would not vote.

    Coalition and Labor voters were more likely to vote and Greens voters somewhat less likely.

    By age, 73% of those aged under 35 said they would vote compared to 82% of those aged 35-54 and 91% of those aged 55+.

    The estimated vote excluding those who would probably or definitely not vote produces a first preference vote of 52% Liberal/National, 30% Labor, 11% Greens and 7% other. The two-party preferred estimate is 58% Liberal/National and 42% Labor (compared to the current estimate of 57%/43%) – suggesting that voluntary voting would only very slightly advantage the Coalition.

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  • Jul, 2011

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    Preferred Voting System

    Q. Which of the following voting systems would you prefer when voting for the Federal House of Representatives.

    • A preferential voting system where voters rank all candidates in order of preference.
    • An optional preferential system where voters can rank one, some, or all candidates in order of preference.
    • A “first past the post” system, where voters only vote for one candidate and the candidate with the most votes wins.
    Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
    Preferential 22% 31% 18% 30%
    Optional preferential 26% 26% 24% 33%
    First past the post 44% 40% 53% 31%
    Don’t know 7% 4% 4% 6%

    Of the three voting options given, 44% favoured “first past the post”, 26% optional preferential and 22% the current preferential system.

    Optional preferential was most preferred by those aged under 35 (35%) while older groups strongly favoured first past the post (50% of aged 35-54 and 54% of aged 55+).

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  • Jul, 2011

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    Foreign Aid Budget

    Q. As far as you know, about how much of the Federal budget is spent on foreign aid?

    Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
    Less than 1% 7% 8% 6% 15%
    About 1% 8% 10% 8% 14%
    About 2% 17% 23% 17% 12%
    About 5% 11% 8% 15% 10%
    More than 5% 16% 16% 15% 7%
    Don’t know 41% 35% 38% 42%

    27% think Australia spends 5% or more of the Federal Budget on foreign aid – 15% think it is 1% or less. The majority of respondents who gave an answer over-estimated how much Australia spends on foreign aid – the actual figure for the 2011-12 budget was 1.3%.

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  • Jul, 2011

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    Foreign Aid Spending

    Q. And do you think Australia spends too much or too little on foreign aid?

    Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Spend 1% or less Spend about 2% Spend 5% or more Don’t know spend
    Spends too much 42% 34% 52% 25% 25% 28% 66% 40%
    Spends too little 16% 20% 11% 37% 36% 25% 7% 9%
    Spends about the right amount 21% 27% 21% 21% 30% 39% 19% 13%
    Don’t know 21% 20% 15% 16% 9% 8% 8% 39%

    42% think Australia spends too much on foreign aid, 21% about the right amount and 16% too little. Opinions are strongly related to perceptions of how much is spent. Those who think Australia spends a higher % of the budget are much more likely to think the spend is too much.

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  • Jul, 2011

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    Phasing out Australia’s Coal Industry

    Q. Do you agree or disagree that Australia’s coal industry should be phased out by 2050? (This question is commissioned by Network Ten).

    Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Men Women Age

    18-34

    Aged

    35-54

    Aged 55+
    Total agree 37% 47% 26% 66% 41% 34% 40% 37% 35%
    Total disagree 39% 28% 53% 20% 44% 33% 33% 35% 51%
    Strongly agree 13% 19% 7% 36% 17% 10% 13% 14% 13%
    Agree 24% 28% 19% 30% 24% 24% 27% 23% 22%
    Disagree 26% 23% 32% 12% 29% 22% 25% 24% 30%
    Strongly disagree 13% 5% 21% 8% 15% 11% 8% 11% 21%
    Don’t know 24% 24% 21% 14% 15% 33% 27% 28% 14%

    Respondents were nearly evenly split over whether Australia’s coal industry should be phased out by 2050 – 37% agreed and 39% disagreed.

    Highest levels of agreement were shown by Greens voters (66%), Labor voters (47%) and those aged under 35 (40%)

    Highest levels of disagreement were shown by Liberal/National voters (53%) and those aged 55+ (51%).

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