2PP, Election, EMC, ER, Essential Media, Essential Report, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,896
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 43% | 42% | |
| National | 3% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6 | 46% | 45% |
| Labor | 38.0 | 38% | 37% |
| Greens | 11.8 | 10% | 11% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6 | 6% | 7% |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 52% | 51% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 48% | 49% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
asylum seekers, Australia’s health system, Australian jobs, climate change, economy, Election Issues, EMC, environment, Essential Media, Essential Report, Greens, industrial relations system, Interest rates, Labor, Liberal, party trust, population growth, quality education, taxation system, Terrorism, water supply, working families
Q. Which are the three most important issues in deciding how you would vote at a Federal election? (Number from 1 to 3 where 1 is the most important, 2 the second most important, etc)
| One | Two | Three | Total | Total 11th Oct 10 | Total 25th Jan 10 | |
| Management of the economy | 37% | 18% | 10% | 65% | 62% | 63% |
| Ensuring a quality education for all children | 5% | 10% | 11% | 26% | 32% | 23% |
| Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system | 13% | 20% | 16% | 49% | 48% | 48% |
| Protecting the environment | 4% | 3% | 6% | 13% | 12% | 16% |
| A fair industrial relations system | 2% | 4% | 4% | 10% | 11% | * |
| Political leadership | 6% | 5% | 5% | 16% | 16% | 23% |
| Addressing climate change | 3% | 3% | 4% | 10% | 11% | 16% |
| Controlling interest rates | 5% | 8% | 8% | 21% | 17% | 15% |
| Australian jobs and protection of local industries | 10% | 8% | 12% | 30% | 30% | 33% |
| Ensuring a quality water supply | 1% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 6% | 12% |
| Housing affordability | 5% | 5% | 6% | 16% | 17% | 14% |
| Ensuring a fair taxation system | 4% | 6% | 8% | 18% | 16% | 14% |
| Security and the war on terrorism | 1% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 6% | 9% |
| Treatment of asylum seekers | 1% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 5% | * |
| Managing population growth | 2% | 5% | 4% | 11% | 10% | * |
*Not asked
65% of people surveyed rated management of the economy as one of their three most important issues, followed by 49% ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system and 30% Australian jobs and protection of local industries.
Only 10% rate addressing climate change as one of their three most important issues and 6% rate ensuring a quality water supply.
Over the past 12 months there has been an increase in the importance of controlling interest rates (from 15% to 21%) and a decrease in the importance of addressing climate change (from 16% to 10%).
asylum seekers, Australia’s health system, Australian jobs, climate change, economy, Election Issues, EMC, environment, Essential Media, Essential Report, Greens, industrial relations system, Interest rates, Labor, Liberal, party trust, population growth, quality education, taxation system, Terrorism, water supply, working families
Q. Which are the three most important issues in deciding how you would vote at a Federal election? (Number from 1 to 3 where 1 is the most important, 2 the second most important, etc)
| Total | Labor | Liberal/ National | Green | |
| Management of the economy | 65% | 63% | 77% | 47% |
| Ensuring a quality education for all children | 26% | 33% | 20% | 24% |
| Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system | 49% | 52% | 47% | 37% |
| Protecting the environment | 13% | 12% | 6% | 42% |
| A fair industrial relations system | 10% | 18% | 5% | 8% |
| Political leadership | 16% | 11% | 25% | 14% |
| Addressing climate change | 10% | 10% | 5% | 22% |
| Controlling interest rates | 21% | 17% | 22% | 19% |
| Australian jobs and protection of local industries | 30% | 33% | 32% | 18% |
| Ensuring a quality water supply | 6% | 4% | 6% | 5% |
| Housing affordability | 16% | 15% | 13% | 21% |
| Ensuring a fair taxation system | 18% | 17% | 19% | 14% |
| Security and the war on terrorism | 5% | 5% | 8% | 5% |
| Treatment of asylum seekers | 5% | 3% | 5% | 15% |
| Managing population growth | 11% | 8% | 12% | 9% |
Compared to the average, Labor voters are more likely to rate ensuring a quality education for all children (33%) and a fair industrial relations system (18%) as important.
Liberal/National voters attach more importance to management of the economy (77%) and political leadership (25%) while Greens voters are more likely to nominate protecting the environment (42%), addressing climate change (22%) and treatment of asylum seekers (15%).
asylum seekers, Australia’s health system, Australian jobs, climate change, economy, Election Issues, EMC, environment, Essential Media, Essential Report, Greens, industrial relations system, Interest rates, Labor, Liberal, party trust, population growth, quality education, taxation system, Terrorism, water supply, working families
Q. And which party would you trust most to handle the following issues?
| Labor | Liberal | Greens | Don’t know | |
| Management of the economy | 33% | 43% | 2% | 22% |
| Ensuring a quality education for all children | 39% | 33% | 4% | 24% |
| Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system | 33% | 33% | 7% | 27% |
| Protecting the environment | 16% | 19% | 40% | 24% |
| A fair industrial relations system | 40% | 30% | 5% | 25% |
| Political leadership | 28% | 37% | 4% | 31% |
| Addressing climate change | 18% | 20% | 34% | 28% |
| Controlling interest rates | 22% | 40% | 2% | 35% |
| Protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries | 36% | 33% | 4% | 27% |
| Ensuring a quality water supply | 21% | 28% | 20% | 31% |
| Housing affordability | 26% | 30% | 7% | 37% |
| Ensuring a fair taxation system | 28% | 35% | 4% | 32% |
| Security and the war on terrorism | 23% | 37% | 4% | 36% |
| Treatment of asylum seekers | 20% | 33% | 12% | 35% |
| Standing up for regular Australian working families | 41% | 27% | 6% | 25% |
| Managing population growth | 21% | 36% | 7% | 37% |
| Making sure Australian working people got fair treatment at their workplace | 41% | 29% | 6% | 25% |
Labor is trusted most to handle a fair industrial relations system (40%), ensuring a quality education for all children (39%) and standing up for regular Australian working families (41%).
The Liberals are trusted most to handle management of the economy (43%), controlling interest rates (40%), political leadership (37%) and security and the war on terrorism (37%).
In October, Labor was considered substantially better to handle 5 of the issues surveyed and Liberals 5 issues – compared to this survey where Labor leads on 4 issues and Liberals on 8 issues. The Liberals have now established a lead on political leadership (+9%), water supply (+7%), and taxation (+7%).
2PP, EMC, ER, Essential Report, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, two party preferred, Voting intention
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,903
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | This week |
| Liberal | 43% | 43% | |
| National | 3% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6 | 46% | 46% |
| Labor | 38.0 | 38% | 38% |
| Greens | 11.8 | 10% | 10% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6 | 7% | 6% |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 52% | 52% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 48% | 48% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
2PP, EMC, ER, Essential Report, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,909
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 42% | 42% | 43% | 43% | |
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6 | 45% | 45% | 46% | 46% |
| Labor | 38.0 | 38% | 38% | 37% | 38% |
| Greens | 11.8 | 10% | 11% | 10% | 10% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6 | 8% | 6% | 7% | 7% |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week
|
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 51% | 51% | 52% | 52% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 49% | 49% | 48% | 48% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
2011, 2011 outlook, EMC, Essential Report, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, political parties
Q. Do you think 2011 will be a good or bad year for each of the following political parties?
| Total good | Total poor | Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know | |
| The Liberal Party | 35% | 18% | 7% | 28% | 34% | 14% | 4% | 13% |
| The Labor Party | 19% | 40% | 4% | 15% | 29% | 29% | 11% | 12% |
| The Greens | 22% | 29% | 4% | 18% | 35% | 16% | 13% | 14% |
Respondents expect that 2011 is likely to be a good year for the Liberal Party (35% good/18% bad) and a bad year for the Labor Party (19%/40%).
Comparing these results with last week’s questions about 2010, respondents expect the Liberal Party to have a better year – 2010 33% good/27% bad compared to 2011 35%/18%.
Also, although the Greens were assessed to have had a good 2010 (42% good/21% bad) expectations are not so positive for 2011 (22%/29%).
2011, 2011 outlook, Bob Brown, EMC, Essential Report, federal politics, Greens, Julia Gillard, kevin rudd, Labor, Liberal, malcolm turnbull, politicians, tony abbott
Q. Do you think 2011 will be a good or bad year for each of the following politicians?
| Total good | Total poor | Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know | |
| Julia Gillard | 28% | 36% | 5% | 23% | 23% | 26% | 10% | 12% |
| Tony Abbott | 29% | 27% | 5% | 24% | 32% | 20% | 7% | 13% |
| Kevin Rudd | 21% | 30% | 3% | 18% | 35% | 21% | 9% | 14% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 20% | 21% | 3% | 17% | 41% | 17% | 4% | 18% |
| Bob Brown | 20% | 30% | 4% | 16% | 31% | 18% | 12% | 19% |
There were no strong expectations one way or the other that 2011 would be good or bad for politicians.
Overall, there were negative expectations for Julia Gillard (-8% net), Kevin Rudd (-9%) and Bob Brown (-10%) while respondents were divided over Tony Abbott (+2%) and Malcolm Turnbull (-1%).
Comparing these results with last week’s questions, respondents expect 2011 to be worse than 2010 for Julia Gillard (net +24% in 2010 compared to
-8% in 2011) and Bob Brown (+17% in 2010/-10% in 2011).