Essential Report
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Likelihood of developing Coronavirus
Q. How likely do you think it is, that you will develop Covid-19?
| 22/08 | 15/06 | 08/06 | 01/06 | 25/05 | 18/05 | 11/05 | 04/05 | 27/04 | 20/04 | |
| Very likely | 8% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 7% |
| Somewhat likely | 23% | 19% | 22% | 23% | 22% | 25% | 24% | 26% | 21% | 25% |
| Somewhat unlikely | 49% | 49% | 47% | 48% | 51% | 48% | 48% | 46% | 50% | 52% |
| Very unlikely | 21% | 26% | 25% | 22% | 23% | 21% | 21% | 23% | 23% | 17% |
| Base (n) | 1,079 | 1,087 | 1,073 | 1,059 | 1,087 | 1,073 | 1,067 | 1.093 | 1,054 | 1,051 |
Likelihood of second wave
Q. How likely do you think it is, that there will be a second wave of Covid-19 infections will occur as a result of easing restrictions?
| Total | Gender | Age Group | ||||
| Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-54 | 55+ | ||
| Very likely | 20% | 18% | 21% | 18% | 24% | 17% |
| Quite likely | 43% | 41% | 45% | 40% | 40% | 50% |
| Neither likely nor unlikely | 24% | 26% | 23% | 28% | 24% | 21% |
| Quite unlikely | 10% | 11% | 8% | 11% | 8% | 10% |
| Very unlikely | 3% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 2% |
| TOTAL: Likely | 63% | 59% | 67% | 58% | 64% | 67% |
| TOTAL: Unlikely | 13% | 15% | 10% | 14% | 12% | 12% |
| Base (n) | 1,079 | 525 | 554 | 332 | 362 | 385 |
| State | |||||
| NSW | VIC | QLD | SA | WA | |
| Very likely | 21% | 24% | 20% | 14% | 14% |
| Quite likely | 41% | 45% | 43% | 45% | 43% |
| Neither likely nor unlikely | 27% | 21% | 24% | 23% | 24% |
| Quite unlikely | 9% | 7% | 10% | 11% | 15% |
| Very unlikely | 3% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 4% |
| TOTAL: Likely | 62% | 70% | 63% | 59% | 57% |
| TOTAL: Unlikely | 12% | 9% | 13% | 18% | 19% |
| Very likely | 352 | 261 | 216 | 88 | 110 |
- 63% of participants think a second wave of Covid-19 infections is probable with women (67%) and 55+ year olds (67%) more likely to say this will happen.
- Victorians (70%) are more likely than other state residents to think a second wave is probable (61%), which coincides with the announcement of 19 new cases over the weekend.
- There are no significant differences across voting intentions.
Time to return to normal
Q. Thinking about the future, how long do you think it will take for the following to occur?
| Within the next six months | Seven months up to one year | One to two years | More than two years | Never | |
| Quarantine will no longer required after international travel | 12% | 27% | 35% | 22% | 4% |
| A Covid-19 vaccine will be developed | 11% | 22% | 43% | 20% | 4% |
| The housing market will return pre-pandemic levels | 11% | 22% | 38% | 25% | 4% |
| International travel will be allowed without restriction | 10% | 23% | 39% | 24% | 4% |
| Unemployment will return to pre-pandemic levels | 8% | 17% | 37% | 33% | 6% |
| The population will build resistance to Covid-19 through exposure (herd immunity) | 8% | 15% | 31% | 27% | 20% |
| Australia will pay off its national debt | 5% | 9% | 12% | 52% | 22% |
| WITHIN NEXT SIX MONTHS | Gender | Age Group | |||
| Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-54 | 55+ | |
| Quarantine will no longer required after international travel | 13% | 10% | 14% | 14% | 7% |
| A Covid-19 vaccine will be developed | 15% | 8% | 16% | 12% | 7% |
| The housing market will return pre-pandemic levels | 13% | 8% | 15% | 11% | 6% |
| International travel will be allowed without restriction | 12% | 9% | 16% | 13% | 4% |
| Unemployment will return to pre-pandemic levels | 8% | 7% | 13% | 8% | 3% |
| The population will build resistance to Covid-19 through exposure (herd immunity) | 9% | 7% | 11% | 9% | 3% |
| Australia will pay off its national debt | 7% | 3% | 9% | 6% | 1% |
| Base (n) | 525 | 554 | 332 | 362 | 385 |
Government response to Covid-19
Q. Overall, how would you rate the Government’s response to the Covid-19 outbreak?
| 22/08 | 15/06 | 08/06 | 01/06 | 25/05 | 18/05 | 11/05 | 04/05 | 27/04 | 20/04 | |
| Very poor | 4% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 5% |
| Quite poor | 8% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 10% |
| Neither good, nor poor | 17% | 16% | 18% | 20% | 16% | 17% | 16% | 20% | 17% | 21% |
| Quite good | 43% | 42% | 40% | 39% | 43% | 41% | 39% | 38% | 44% | 42% |
| Very good | 27% | 30% | 30% | 28% | 30% | 32% | 32% | 28% | 26% | 23% |
| TOTAL: Poor | 12% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 13% | 14% | 13% | 15% |
| TOTAL: Good | 71% | 72% | 70% | 68% | 73% | 73% | 71% | 66% | 70% | 65% |
| Base (n) | 1,079 | 1,087 | 1,073 | 1,059 | 1,087 | 1,073 | 1,067 | 1,093 | 1,054 | 1,051 |
| Gender | Age Group | Location | ||||||
| Total | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-54 | 55+ | Capital | Non-Capital | |
| Very poor | 4% | 6% | 2% | 5% | 5% | 2% | 4% | 4% |
| Quite poor | 8% | 9% | 8% | 12% | 7% | 6% | 9% | 7% |
| Neither good, nor poor | 17% | 18% | 16% | 23% | 21% | 8% | 16% | 19% |
| Quite good | 43% | 39% | 47% | 44% | 43% | 43% | 43% | 43% |
| Very good | 27% | 28% | 27% | 17% | 24% | 40% | 28% | 27% |
| TOTAL: Poor | 12% | 14% | 10% | 17% | 12% | 9% | 13% | 11% |
| TOTAL: Good | 71% | 67% | 74% | 61% | 67% | 83% | 71% | 70% |
| Base (n) | 1,079 | 525 | 554 | 332 | 362 | 385 | 728 | 351 |
State Government response to Covid-19
Q. How would you rate your state government’s response to the Covid-19 outbreak?
| 22/08 | 15/06 | 08/06 | 01/06 | 25/05 | 18/05 | 11/05 | 04/05 | 27/04 | 20/04 | |
| Very poor | 5% | 4% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 5% |
| Quite poor | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% |
| Neither good, nor poor | 17% | 17% | 17% | 20% | 17% | 17% | 16% | 18% | 17% | 20% |
| Quite good | 41% | 38% | 39% | 38% | 38% | 39% | 39% | 38% | 41% | 39% |
| Very good | 28% | 33% | 32% | 30% | 35% | 33% | 34% | 31% | 30% | 26% |
| TOTAL: Poor | 13% | 12% | 11% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 14% |
| TOTAL: Good | 69% | 71% | 71% | 68% | 73% | 72% | 73% | 70% | 70% | 66% |
| Base (n) | 1,079 | 1,087 | 1,073 | 1,059 | 1,087 | 1,073 | 1,067 | 1,093 | 1,054 | 1,051 |
| State | |||||||
| Total | NSW | VIC | QLD | SA | WA | ||
| Very poor | 5% | 4% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 4% | |
| Quite poor | 8% | 8% | 5% | 14% | 5% | 4% | |
| Neither good, nor poor | 17% | 18% | 22% | 15% | 13% | 17% | |
| Quite good | 41% | 45% | 38% | 42% | 39% | 27% | |
| Very good | 28% | 25% | 26% | 22% | 40% | 48% | |
| TOTAL: Poor | 13% | 12% | 13% | 20% | 8% | 8% | |
| TOTAL: Good | 69% | 70% | 65% | 64% | 79% | 75% | |
| Base (n) | 1,079 | 352 | 261 | 216 | 88 | 110 | |
- Victorian rating of their state government’s response is down 10% this week (from 75% to 65%) with 19 new cases of Covid-19 recorded this weekend.
State Government response to Covid-19
Q. How would you rate your state government’s response to the Covid-19 outbreak?
| 15/06 | 08/06 | 01/06 | 25/05 | 18/05 | 11/05 | 04/05 | 27/04 | 20/04 | |
| Very poor | 4% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 5% |
| Quite poor | 8% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% |
| Neither good, nor poor | 17% | 17% | 20% | 17% | 17% | 16% | 18% | 17% | 20% |
| Quite good | 38% | 39% | 38% | 38% | 39% | 39% | 38% | 41% | 39% |
| Very good | 33% | 32% | 30% | 35% | 33% | 34% | 31% | 30% | 26% |
| TOTAL: Poor | 12% | 11% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 14% |
| TOTAL: Good | 71% | 71% | 68% | 73% | 72% | 73% | 70% | 70% | 66% |
| Base (n) | 1,087 | 1,073 | 1,059 | 1,087 | 1,073 | 1,067 | 1,093 | 1,054 | 1,051 |
| State | |||||||
| Total | NSW | VIC | QLD | SA | WA | ||
| Very poor | 4% | 4% | 6% | 6% | 1% | 3% | |
| Quite poor | 8% | 9% | 5% | 12% | 6% | 4% | |
| Neither good, nor poor | 17% | 22% | 13% | 15% | 17% | 17% | |
| Quite good | 38% | 41% | 39% | 39% | 40% | 28% | |
| Very good | 33% | 24% | 36% | 28% | 36% | 49% | |
| TOTAL: Poor | 12% | 13% | 11% | 18% | 7% | 6% | |
| TOTAL: Good | 71% | 65% | 75% | 67% | 76% | 77% | |
| Base (n) | 1,087 | 352 | 275 | 217 | 83 | 107 | |
Likelihood of developing Coronavirus
Q. How likely do you think it is, that you will develop Covid-19?
| 08/06 | 01/06 | 25/05 | 18/05 | 11/05 | 04/05 | 27/04 | 20/04 | 13/04 | 06/04 | |
| Very likely | 6% | 7% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 7% | 5% | 8% |
| Somewhat likely | 22% | 23% | 22% | 25% | 24% | 26% | 21% | 25% | 28% | 33% |
| Somewhat unlikely | 47% | 48% | 51% | 48% | 48% | 46% | 50% | 52% | 49% | 45% |
| Very unlikely | 25% | 22% | 23% | 21% | 21% | 23% | 23% | 17% | 18% | 14% |
| Base (n) | 1,073 | 1,059 | 1,087 | 1,073 | 1,067 | 1.093 | 1,054 | 1,051 | 1,068 | 1,069 |
| Age group | Location | |||||
| Total | 18-34 | 35-54 | 55+ | Capital | Non-Capital | |
| Very likely | 6% | 8% | 8% | 3% | 6% | 6% |
| Somewhat likely | 22% | 29% | 22% | 17% | 25% | 18% |
| Somewhat unlikely | 47% | 38% | 47% | 54% | 47% | 46% |
| Very unlikely | 25% | 25% | 23% | 27% | 22% | 30% |
| Base (n) | 1,073 | 341 | 363 | 369 | 727 | 349 |
Government response to Covid-19
Q. Overall, how would you rate the Government’s response to the Covid-19 outbreak?
| 08/06 | 01/06 | 25/05 | 18/05 | 11/05 | 04/05 | 27/04 | 20/04 | 13/04 | |
| Very poor | 4% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 6% |
| Quite poor | 8% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 12% |
| Neither good, nor poor | 18% | 20% | 16% | 17% | 16% | 20% | 17% | 21% | 20% |
| Quite good | 40% | 39% | 43% | 41% | 39% | 38% | 44% | 42% | 40% |
| Very good | 30% | 28% | 30% | 32% | 32% | 28% | 26% | 23% | 23% |
| TOTAL: Poor | 12% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 13% | 14% | 13% | 15% | 17% |
| TOTAL: Good | 70% | 68% | 73% | 73% | 71% | 66% | 70% | 65% | 63% |
| Base (n) | 1,073 | 1,059 | 1,087 | 1,073 | 1,067 | 1,093 | 1,054 | 1,051 | 1,068 |
| Gender | Age Group | Location | |||||||
| Total | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-54 | 55+ | Capital | Non-Capital | ||
| Very poor | 4% | 5% | 2% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 4% | |
| Quite poor | 8% | 9% | 7% | 13% | 8% | 4% | 9% | 6% | |
| Neither good, nor poor | 18% | 19% | 17% | 26% | 18% | 11% | 18% | 18% | |
| Quite good | 40% | 38% | 43% | 41% | 45% | 36% | 41% | 39% | |
| Very good | 30% | 29% | 31% | 14% | 26% | 47% | 29% | 33% | |
| TOTAL: Poor | 12% | 14% | 9% | 18% | 11% | 6% | 12% | 10% | |
| TOTAL: Good | 70% | 67% | 74% | 55% | 71% | 83% | 70% | 72% | |
| Base (n) | 1,073 | 528 | 545 | 341 | 363 | 369 | 727 | 349 | |
COVID-19 RESEARCH
Read Essential's ongoing research on the public response to Covid-19.
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Two Party Preferred:
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