14 May 2012, 140512, 2PP, ER, Essential Report, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, two party preferred, voting, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,904 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 16/4/12 |
2 weeks ago 30/4/12 |
Last week 7/5/12 |
This week 14/5/12 |
| Liberal |
|
45% |
46% |
47% |
47% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
48% |
50% |
50% |
50% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
31% |
31% |
29% |
30% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
11% |
11% |
11% |
11% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
56% |
57% |
58% |
57% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
44% |
43% |
42% |
43% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.
14 May 2012, 140512, approval, Approval rating, Gillard approval, Julia Gillard, Labor leader, Polling, polls, Prime Minister
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
|
|
19 Jul 2010 |
20 Dec 2010 |
14 Mar 2011 |
14 June |
12 Sept |
12 Dec |
16 Jan 2012 |
13 Feb |
12 Mar |
16 Apr |
14 May |
| Total approve |
52% |
43% |
41% |
34% |
28% |
34% |
37% |
36% |
32% |
32% |
31% |
| Total disapprove |
30% |
40% |
46% |
54% |
64% |
54% |
52% |
53% |
61% |
58% |
60% |
| Strongly approve |
11% |
10% |
7% |
6% |
5% |
6% |
6% |
6% |
8% |
7% |
5% |
| Approve |
41% |
33% |
34% |
28% |
23% |
28% |
31% |
30% |
24% |
25% |
26% |
| Disapprove |
17% |
24% |
22% |
29% |
28% |
25% |
27% |
26% |
29% |
31% |
26% |
| Strongly disapprove |
13% |
16% |
24% |
25% |
36% |
29% |
25% |
27% |
32% |
27% |
34% |
| Don’t know |
18% |
17% |
13% |
13% |
8% |
11% |
12% |
11% |
7% |
10% |
10% |
Julia Gillard’s approval rating has changed little since last month. 31% (down 1%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 60% (up 2%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -26 to -29 over the last 4 weeks.
69% of Labor voters approve (up 2%) and 24% disapprove (up 3%).
By gender – men 31% approve/61% disapprove, women 30% approve/58% disapprove.
14 May 2012, 140512, Abbott approval, approval, Approval rating, Opposition leader, Polling, polls, tony abbott
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
|
18 Jan 2010 |
5 Jul 2010 |
20 Dec 2010 |
14 Mar 2011 |
14 June |
12 Sept |
12 Dec |
16 Jan 2012 |
13 Feb |
12 Mar |
16 Apr |
14 May |
|
| Total approve |
37% |
37% |
39% |
38% |
38% |
39% |
32% |
35% |
35% |
36% |
38% |
36% |
| Total disapprove |
37% |
47% |
39% |
47% |
48% |
50% |
53% |
51% |
53% |
52% |
50% |
53% |
| Strongly approve |
5% |
8% |
9% |
7% |
6% |
8% |
6% |
7% |
6% |
7% |
7% |
7% |
| Approve |
32% |
29% |
30% |
31% |
32% |
31% |
26% |
28% |
29% |
29% |
31% |
29% |
| Disapprove |
20% |
23% |
21% |
24% |
25% |
23% |
25% |
25% |
23% |
23% |
23% |
24% |
| Strongly disapprove |
17% |
24% |
18% |
23% |
23% |
27% |
28% |
26% |
30% |
29% |
27% |
29% |
| Don’t know |
26% |
16% |
22% |
16% |
15% |
11% |
14% |
13% |
12% |
12% |
13% |
11% |
Tony Abbott’s approval rating has declined a little over the last month. 36% (down 2%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 53% (up 3%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -12 to -17 over the last 4 weeks.
71% (down 1%) of Coalition voters approve and 19% (up 2%) disapprove.
By gender – men 38% approve/53% disapprove, women 33% approve/53% disapprove.
14 May 2012, 140512, Better Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, PM, Polling, polls, Prime Minister, tony abbott
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
|
5 Jul 2010 |
14 Mar 2011 |
14 June |
12 Sept |
12 Dec |
16 Jan 2012 |
13 Feb |
12 Mar |
16 Apr |
14 May |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Julia Gillard |
53% |
44% |
41% |
36% |
39% |
39% |
41% |
40% |
38% |
38% |
83% |
4% |
69% |
| Tony Abbott |
26% |
33% |
36% |
40% |
35% |
36% |
34% |
37% |
36% |
37% |
3% |
79% |
5% |
| Don’t know |
21% |
23% |
24% |
24% |
26% |
25% |
25% |
23% |
25% |
24% |
15% |
17% |
27% |
38% (no change) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 37% (up 1%) prefer Tony Abbott – a net change from +2% to +1% for Julia Gillard.
Men prefer Tony Abbott 39%/37% and women prefer Julia Gillard 39%/36%.
14 May 2012, 140512, budget, budget 2012, Budget Surplus, Federal Budget, Polling, polls
Q. Thinking about the Federal Budget – how much attention did you pay to this week’s Federal Budget?
|
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
|
| Total a lot/some |
66% |
53% |
52% |
54% |
| Total a little/none |
31% |
44% |
45% |
43% |
| A lot |
29% |
18% |
19% |
20% |
| Some |
37% |
35% |
33% |
34% |
| A little |
25% |
29% |
31% |
31% |
| None |
6% |
15% |
14% |
12% |
| Can’t say |
3% |
3% |
2% |
3% |
Just over half (54%) of respondents said they paid a lot or some attention to the Federal Budget. This is much the same as the corresponding figure of 52% for last year’s budget.
Those most interested were Liberal/National voters (61%), Labor voters (59%) and people aged 55+ (64%). Only 42% of respondents aged 18-34 paid a lot or some attention to the budget.
14 May 2012, 140512, Australian businesses, budget, Budget Surplus, Federal Budget, Polling, polls, working people
Q. Do you think the Federal Budget was good or bad for you personally?
Q. Do you think the Federal Budget was good or bad for average working people?
Q. Do you think the Federal Budget was good or bad for Australian businesses?
Q. Do you think the Federal Budget was good or bad for the Australian economy overall?
|
You personally |
Working people |
Australian businesses |
Economy overall |
|||||||
|
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2012 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
|
| Total good |
22% |
11% |
17% |
31% |
27% |
20% |
10% |
36% |
27% |
26% |
| Total bad |
26% |
29% |
26% |
24% |
32% |
25% |
43% |
28% |
29% |
32% |
| Very good |
3% |
2% |
2% |
4% |
3% |
3% |
1% |
6% |
4% |
4% |
| Good |
19% |
9% |
15% |
27% |
24% |
17% |
9% |
30% |
23% |
22% |
| Neither good nor bad |
33% |
44% |
44% |
33% |
9% |
31% |
29% |
10% |
25% |
25% |
| Bad |
18% |
21% |
17% |
19% |
22% |
19% |
28% |
18% |
21% |
21% |
| Very bad |
8% |
8% |
9% |
5% |
10% |
6% |
15% |
10% |
8% |
11% |
| Don’t know |
20% |
16% |
12% |
12% |
31% |
23% |
18% |
26% |
20% |
17% |
In terms of the economy overall there was a similar response to the 2012 budget compared to last year’s. 26% (down 1%) thought the economy was good for the economy and 32% (up 3%) thought it was bad.
44% of respondents thought the Federal budget was neither good nor bad for them personally – 17% (up 6%) said it was good and 26% (down 3%) bad. 28% of respondents aged 35-44 thought it was good for them while 38% of those aged 55+ thought it was bad.
31% thought it was good for working people and 24% thought it was bad. 35% of part-time workers thought it was good for working people.
43% (up 18%) thought the budget was bad for business, 10% (down 10%) good and 29% said it was neither.
14 May 2012, 140512, Bonus payments, budget, Budget Surplus, defence, dental health, Federal Budget, parenting payments, Polling, polls, super contributions
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the following parts of the Federal budget?
|
Total approve |
Total disapprove |
Strongly approve |
Approve |
Disapprove |
Strongly disapprove |
Don’t know |
|
| Reduced spending on defence |
48% |
43% |
14% |
34% |
28% |
15% |
10% |
| Increased spending on dental health |
87% |
8% |
30% |
57% |
7% |
1% |
6% |
| Bonus payments to low-income families with children at school |
60% |
33% |
16% |
44% |
20% |
13% |
7% |
| Returning the budget to surplus |
61% |
26% |
15% |
46% |
19% |
7% |
14% |
| Tightening eligibility for parenting payments for single mothers |
65% |
25% |
26% |
39% |
17% |
8% |
10% |
| Increasing tax on super contributions for people on high incomes |
60% |
31% |
28% |
32% |
20% |
11% |
9% |
Respondents were divided on reduced defence spending – 48% approved and 43% disapproved. Support for reduced defence spending was highest among those aged 18-34 (57%).
On all other items measured there was quite strong approval – in particular on increased spending on dental health (87%). Other items received at least 60% support – including 61% approval of returning the budget to surplus. 71% of Labor voters and 58% of Liberal/National voters approved the return to surplus.
Increasing tax on super contributions for people on high incomes was approved by 52% of those on incomes of $1,600+ pw and disapproved by 40%.
14 May 2012, 140512, Australia’s economy, budget, economy, Joe Hockey, Polling, polls, Treasurer, Wayne Swan
Q. Who would you trust most to handle Australia’s economy – the Treasurer Wayne Swan or the Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Wayne Swan |
34% |
77% |
6% |
51% |
| Joe Hockey |
33% |
5% |
65% |
6% |
| Don’t know |
33% |
18% |
29% |
43% |
34% would trust Wayne Swan most to handle the economy and 33% would trust Joe Hockey most. 33% could not give an opinion.
Those aged under 35 trust Wayne Swan more (32%/21%) and those aged 55+ trust Joe Hockey more (47%/31%).