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Anil Lambert, Better State, Campaigning, Election, EMC, Politics, Unions NSW
Better State – campaigning in a climate of certainty
You would have to completely disregard the polls, history and any semblance of common sense to predict a Labor victory in the March 2011 NSW election.Although there’s no such thing as a sure bet in Australian politics, a NSW Coalition government in 2011 is about as close as you’re likely to get. (The bookies have Labor at $6.25 to win next year. You won’t find those sort of odds in any 2011 NRL fixture.)
This climate of certainty makes a traditional approach to election time campaigning impossible.
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Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,783
First preference/leaning to 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week Liberal 39% 42% 41% 41% 42% National 3% 2% 3% 3% 4% Total Lib/Nat 42% 44% 44% 44% 46% Labor 37% 41% 41% 41% 39% Greens 11% 8% 8% 8% 8% Other/Independent 10% 7% 7% 7% 7% 2PP 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week Total Lib/Nat 50% 49% 50% 50% 51% Labor 50% 51% 50% 50% 49% NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. Comments »
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Election Issues, issues of importance, level of concern
Concern about Issues
Q. How concerned are you personally about each of the following economic issues facing Australia today?
Very concerned Somewhat concerned Not so concerned Not at all concerned Don’t know Petrol and energy prices 60% 32% 7% 1% 1% Excessive executive salaries 54% 27% 14% 4% 1% Affordability of housing 53% 31% 13% 2% 1% Not enough regulation of banks 53% 27% 15% 4% 2% Jobs going overseas 47% 33% 15% 4% 1% Food prices and inflation generally 45% 42% 10% 2% 1% Interest rates 44% 33% 17% 5% 1% The age pension 37% 34% 22% 5% 1% Not enough regulation of large corporations 36% 32% 24% 6% 2% Improving wages for low income earners 34% 40% 20% 4% 1% Taxation 32% 37% 26% 4% 1% Not enough superannuation 32% 37% 23% 7% 2% Government debt 31% 33% 26% 8% 2% Unemployment 26% 35% 30% 8% 1% More than half the respondents said they were very concerned about petrol and energy prices, excessive executive salaries, affordability of housing and regulation of banks.
Petrol and energy prices were of most concern to people aged 55+ (69%).
57% of those aged under 35 were very concerned about the affordability of housing.
67% of people aged 55+ were very concerned about regulation of banks and 76% were very concerned about excessive executive salaries.
Overall, there were not major differences between Labor and Liberal voters except for Government debt (Labor 16% very concerned, Liberal/National 49%). Comments »
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banking regulation, debt, Housing affordability, inflation, party best at, pension, salaries, superannuation, tax, unemployment, wages
Party Best at Handling Issues
Q. Between Liberal and Labor, which party do you think would be best at managing each of the following issues?
Labor Liberal No difference Don’t know Labor-Liberal difference Improving wages for low income earners 34% 20% 34% 13% +14 The age pension 27% 23% 37% 13% +4 Executive salaries 22% 20% 44% 14% +2 Unemployment 24% 25% 38% 13% -1 Regulation of large corporations 21% 24% 41% 14% -3 Affordability of housing 19% 24% 44% 13% -5 Jobs going overseas 18% 24% 44% 14% -6 Superannuation 18% 27% 40% 15% -9 Petrol and energy prices 16% 26% 45% 13% -10 Regulation of banks 19% 29% 39% 14% -10 Interest rates 17% 30% 41% 13% -13 Food prices and inflation generally 18% 31% 38% 13% -13 Taxation 18% 32% 37% 13% -14 Government debt 15% 42% 31% 12% -27 The only substantial lead for the Labor Party is on improving wages for low income earners (34% to 20%).
Liberal Party strengths are in managing Government debt (42%/15%), taxation (32%/18%), food prices and inflation (31%/18%) and interest rates (30%/17%).
Although overall opinions are closely related to voting intention, the Liberal Party generally performs better among its voters than the Labor Party does with its voters. On Government debt Labor voters split 35% Labor/14% Liberal/42% no difference and on petrol and energy prices 37%/2%/50%. Comments »
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agriculture, banking, car manufacturing, goverment support for industries, media, mining, renewable energy
Government Support for Industries
Q. Thinking about Australian industries and the ways in which the Government can give them assistance and support – which forms of assistance and support do you think the Government should give to the following industries? (multi-response)
Lower tax rates Direct subsidies and grants Protection from overseas competition Total should give assistance Should not give any assistance Don’t know Agriculture 34% 44% 45% 79% 7% 14% Renewable energy e.g. solar panels, wind farms 34% 56% 19% 79% 7% 14% Other manufacturing e.g. clothing, whitegoods 24% 16% 43% 69% 14% 17% Car manufacturing 22% 18% 39% 66% 16% 18% Mining 13% 9% 19% 37% 42% 21% Banking and finance 13% 3% 12% 25% 57% 18% Media e.g. newspapers, TV stations 5% 5% 12% 21% 58% 21% More than three-quarters of respondents are in favour of Government assistance and support for agriculture and renewable energy industries. 45% believe that agriculture should receive protection from overseas competition and 56% support direct grants and subsidies for renewable energy.
About two-thirds are in favour of Government support for car and other manufacturing industries – especially protection from overseas competition.
Media (21%) and banking and finance (25%) are thought to be least deserving of Government support.
By voting intention Liberal/National voters were a little more likely to favour Government support for agriculture (87%) and mining (44%). Comments »
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Difference between Labor and Liberal Parties
Q. Thinking about the Federal Parliament, how much difference do you think there is between the policies of the Labor Party and the Liberal Party?
Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Very little difference 29% 30% 20% 51% Some difference 43% 50% 45% 35% A lot of difference 19% 15% 31% 4% Don’t know 9% 5% 5% 10% Q. Do you think that in the last few years, the policies of the Labor Party and the Liberal Party have become more similar or do you think their policies have been moving apart?
Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Become more similar 51% 54% 50% 63% Moving further apart 17% 16% 23% 5% No change 21% 23% 19% 19% Don’t know 12% 7% 8% 13% Only 19% believe there is a lot of difference between the Labor and Liberal Parties and 29% think there is very little difference. Liberal/National voters (31% a lot of difference) are more likely to think there is a difference than Labor voters (15%). 37% of those aged under 35 think there is little difference.
51% think the Labor and Liberal Parties have become more similar and 17% think they are moving further apart. When this question was last asked in September 2009, 49% said the parties had become closer and 20% further apart. Comments »
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2PP, Election, New South Wales, NSW, NSW State Election, State Election, Voting intention
NSW – voting intention
Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,953
First preference/leaning to Total Election Mar 07
Change Liberal 47% 26.9% National 3% 10.1% Total Lib/Nat 50% 37.0% +13.0% Labor 29% 39.0% -10.0% Greens 11% 9.0% +2.0% Other/Independent 10% 15.0% -5.0% 2PP Total Election Mar 07
Change Total Lib/Nat 58% 47.7% +10.3% Labor 42% 52.3% -10.3% NB. The data in the above tables comprise 6-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the previous election. Comments »
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2PP, Election, State Election, VIC State Election, Victoria, Voting intention
Victoria – voting intention
Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,465
First preference/leaning to Total Election Nov 06 Change Liberal 42% 34.4% National 2% 5.2% Total Lib/Nat 44% 39.6% +4.4% Labor 38% 43.1% -5.1% Greens 12% 10.0% +2.0% Other/Independent 6% 7.3% -1.3% 2PP Total Election Nov 06 Change Total Lib/Nat 50% 45.6% +4.4% Labor 50% 54.4% 4.4% NB. The data in the above tables comprise 6-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the previous election. Comments »