Approval of Bob Brown
Q. Last week Bob Brown resigned from Parliament and the leadership of the Greens, after 16 years as a member of the Senate. Do you approve or disapprove of the performance of Bob Brown over his 16 years in Parliament?
|
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
| Total approve |
42% |
60% |
24% |
89% |
| Total disapprove |
34% |
15% |
56% |
1% |
| Strongly approve |
9% |
14% |
3% |
38% |
| Approve |
33% |
46% |
21% |
51% |
| Disapprove |
19% |
13% |
29% |
1% |
| Strongly disapprove |
15% |
2% |
27% |
- |
| Don’t know |
24% |
25% |
20% |
10 |
42% approve the performance of Bob Brown over his 16 years in Parliament and 34% disapprove. A majority of Greens voters (89%) and Labor voters (60%) approve but 56% of Liberal/National voters disapprove.
Men split 40% approve/41% disapprove compared to women 43% approve/28% disapprove.
By age group, approval/disapproval was 46%/21% for under 35’s, 43%/31% for 35-54’s and 35%/56% for 55+.
2012 Outlook – Politicians
Q. Do you think 2012 will be a good or bad year for each of the following politicians?
| Total good
Dec 10 |
Total bad
Dec10 |
Total good | Total bad | Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know | |
| Julia Gillard | 28% | 36% | 19% | 56% | 4% | 15% | 17% | 29% | 27% | 9% |
| Tony Abbott | 29% | 27% | 24% | 38% | 6% | 18% | 29% | 24% | 14% | 10% |
| Kevin Rudd | 21% | 30% | 30% | 25% | 5% | 25% | 35% | 17% | 8% | 10% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 20% | 21% | 22% | 22% | 3% | 19% | 42% | 17% | 5% | 14% |
| Bob Brown | 20% | 30% | 16% | 39% | 2% | 14% | 31% | 20% | 19% | 14% |
Overall, there were negative expectations for the three party leaders – Julia Gillard (-37% net), Tony Abbott (-14%) and Bob Brown (-23%) while respondents were more evenly divided over Kevin Rudd (+5%) and Malcolm Turnbull (-).
45% of Labor voters expect Julia Gillard to have a good year and 47% of Liberal/National voters expect Tony Abbott to have a good year.
Compared to expectations 12 months ago, respondents were somewhat less positive about all party leaders – Julia Gillard has dropped form net -8% to net -37%, Tony Abbott from +2% to -14% and Bob Brown from -10% to -23%.
Comparing these results with last week’s questions, respondents expect 2012 to be similar 2011 for Julia Gillard (net -37% next year compared to -36% this year) and Tony Abbott (-14% next year, -17% this year). However, Bob Brown is expected to have a worse year in 2012 (net -23%) than this year (+5%).
The Past Year – Politicians
Q. Has it been a good or bad year for each of the following politicians?
| Total good
(Dec 10) |
Total bad
(Dec 10) |
Total good | Total bad | Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know | |
| Julia Gillard | 49% | 25% | 21% | 57% | 3% | 18% | 16% | 35% | 22% | 6% |
| Bob Brown | 38% | 21% | 32% | 27% | 8% | 24% | 26% | 14% | 13% | 16% |
| Tony Abbott | 30% | 33% | 21% | 38% | 2% | 19% | 32% | 25% | 13% | 8% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 10% | 43% | 17% | 23% | 2% | 15% | 45% | 16% | 7% | 17% |
| Kevin Rudd | 10% | 70% | 31% | 30% | 5% | 26% | 31% | 22% | 8% | 7% |
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |||||
| Total good | Total bad | Total good | Total bad | Total good | Total bad | Total good | Total bad | |
| Julia Gillard | 21% | 57% | 41% | 36% | 10% | 77% | 29% | 43% |
| Bob Brown | 32% | 27% | 37% | 19% | 25% | 40% | 66% | 4% |
| Tony Abbott | 21% | 38% | 9% | 57% | 39% | 18% | 7% | 64% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 17% | 23% | 18% | 21% | 18% | 23% | 23% | 22% |
| Kevin Rudd | 31% | 30% | 37% | 24% | 31% | 38% | 29% | 25% |
Overall, only Bob Brown (32%/27%) was thought to have had a good year. Respondents were divided on whether Kevin Rudd has had a good year (31%/30%). Only 21% thought Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott had a good year in 2011. 2011 was considered worse than 2010 for each of the party leaders. Malcolm Turnbull and Kevin Rudd were considered to have had a somewhat better year compared to 2010.
Among their own voters thought, 66% (down 2%) thought Bob Brown had a good year, 41% (down 28%) thought Julia Gillard had a good year and 39% (down 5%) thought Tony Abbott has had a good year.
Preferred Leader of the Labor Party
Q. If you were able to choose any politician to be leader of the Labor Party, which of the following would you prefer? (This question was commissioned by Network Ten).
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Men | Women | Age
18-34 |
Aged
35-54 |
Aged 55+ | |
| Kevin Rudd | 37% | 43% | 36% | 35% | 40% | 33% | 40% | 39% | 30% |
| Julia Gillard | 12% | 31% | 2% | 24% | 10% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 11% | 6% | 17% | 7% | 12% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 15% |
| Stephen Smith | 7% | 6% | 9% | 2% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 6% | 12% |
| Bob Brown | 3% | 2% | 2% | 11% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 4% |
| Greg Combet | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 3% |
| Bill Shorten | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% |
| Don’t know | 28% | 9% | 32% | 18% | 22% | 33% | 31% | 28% | 22% |
37% of respondents prefer Kevin Rudd as leader of the Labor Party, 12% prefer Julia Gillard and 11% Malcolm Turnbull.
Among Labor voters, 43% prefer Kevin Rudd and 31% Julia Gillard.
Kevin Rudd is more preferred by younger respondents while those aged 55+ were more likely than the average to prefer Malcolm Turnbull (15%) and Stephen Smith (12%).
2011 Outlook – Politicians
Q. Do you think 2011 will be a good or bad year for each of the following politicians?
| Total good | Total poor | Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know | |
| Julia Gillard | 28% | 36% | 5% | 23% | 23% | 26% | 10% | 12% |
| Tony Abbott | 29% | 27% | 5% | 24% | 32% | 20% | 7% | 13% |
| Kevin Rudd | 21% | 30% | 3% | 18% | 35% | 21% | 9% | 14% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 20% | 21% | 3% | 17% | 41% | 17% | 4% | 18% |
| Bob Brown | 20% | 30% | 4% | 16% | 31% | 18% | 12% | 19% |
There were no strong expectations one way or the other that 2011 would be good or bad for politicians.
Overall, there were negative expectations for Julia Gillard (-8% net), Kevin Rudd (-9%) and Bob Brown (-10%) while respondents were divided over Tony Abbott (+2%) and Malcolm Turnbull (-1%).
Comparing these results with last week’s questions, respondents expect 2011 to be worse than 2010 for Julia Gillard (net +24% in 2010 compared to
-8% in 2011) and Bob Brown (+17% in 2010/-10% in 2011).
The Past Year – Politicians
Q. Has it been a good or bad year for each of the following politicians?
| Total good | Total bad | Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know | |
| Julia Gillard | 49% | 25% | 14% | 35% | 22% | 17% | 8% | 4% |
| Bob Brown | 38% | 21% | 9% | 29% | 28% | 11% | 10% | 13% |
| Tony Abbott | 30% | 33% | 4% | 26% | 32% | 25% | 8% | 6% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 10% | 43% | 1% | 9% | 35% | 30% | 13% | 11% |
| Kevin Rudd | 10% | 70% | 2% | 8% | 15% | 36% | 34% | 5% |
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |||||
| Total good | Total bad | Total good | Total bad | Total good | Total bad | Total good | Total bad | |
| Julia Gillard | 49% | 25% | 69% | 8% | 36% | 43% | 57% | 17% |
| Bob Brown | 38% | 21% | 40% | 17% | 35% | 31% | 68% | 6% |
| Tony Abbott | 30% | 33% | 19% | 45% | 44% | 21% | 17% | 54% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 10% | 43% | 6% | 50% | 15% | 42% | 6% | 50% |
| Kevin Rudd | 10% | 70% | 14% | 64% | 8% | 81% | 11% | 73% |
Overall, Julia Gillard (49% good/25% bad) and Bob Brown (38%/21%) are thought to have had a good year. Respondents were divided on whether Tony Abbott has had a good year (30%/33%).
A majority of their own voters thought Julia Gillard (69%) and Bob Brown (68%) have had a good year but only 44% of Liberal/National voters think Tony Abbott has had a good year. There is a substantial gender difference on the assessment of Tony Abbott – men split 37% good/30% bad and women 23% good/36% bad. Comments »
Party Best at Dealing with Climate Change Issue
Q. Which leader and party would you trust most to understand and deal with the climate change issue?
| Dec 10 | Dec 09 * | |
| Julia Gillard and Labor | 23% | 24% |
| Tony Abbott and the Coalition | 29% | 27% |
| Bob Brown and Greens | 19% | 17% |
| Don’t know | 29% | 32% |
* Note : Similar but not identical question asked in 2009.
29% trust Tony Abbott and the Coalition most to understand and deal with the climate change issue, 23% trust Julia Gillard and Labor and 19% trust Bob Brown and the Greens.
These figures are little changed since this question was previously asked in December 2009.
58% of Labor voters trust Labor most, 65% of Coalition voters trust the Liberals and 83% of Greens voters trust the Greens.
Of those who believe that climate change is happening and is caused by human activity, 31% trust the Greens, 27% Labor and 15% the Liberals.
Of those who believe that climate change is a very important issue, 38% trust the Greens, 31% Labor and 10% the Liberals.
Reasons for Voting Preference
Q. What is the main reason you intend to vote for the Labor Party/Liberal or National Party/Greens?
| Labor | Liberal/ National | Greens | |||
| I always vote for the Labor Party | 28% | I always vote for the Liberal or National Party | 19% | I always vote for the Greens | 8% |
| They have better policies | 15% | They have better policies | 19% | They have better policies | 30% |
| They have been a good government | 10% | Labor have been a poor government | 39% | Labor have been a poor government | 6% |
| I just don’t like the Liberals | 11% | I just don’t like Labor | 9% | I just don’t like the Liberals or Labor | 28% |
| Julia Gillard is a better leader than Tony Abbott | 32% | Tony Abbott is a better leader than Julia Gillard | 7% | I like Bob Brown | 3% |
| Other reason | 4% | Other reason | 5% | I don’t like Tony Abbott or Julia Gillard | 14% |
| Other reason | 10% |
Main reasons for voting Labor were a preference for Julia Gillard over Tony Abbott (32%) and party loyalty (28% said they always vote Labor). The leadership issue is more important for women – 40% of women said they were voting Labor because Julia Gillard is a better leader compared to 23% of men.
39% of Liberal/National voters say their main reason is that Labor have been a poor Government – and only 7% say leadership is their main reason.
Main reasons for voting for the Greens were “better policies” (30%) and a dislike of the major parties (28%). Only 6% say it is because Labor have been a poor Government. Comments »
Leaders and Australian Values
Q. Do you agree or disagree that this definition of Australian values describes the political leaders Julia Gillard, Tony Abbott and Bob Brown?
| Julia Gillard | Tony Abbott | Bob Brown | |
| Total agree | 64% | 39% | 36% |
| Total disagree | 18% | 40% | 31% |
| Strongly agree | 21% | 7% | 8% |
| Agree | 43% | 32% | 28% |
| Disagree | 12% | 25% | 18% |
| Strongly disagree | 6% | 15% | 13% |
| Don’t know | 17% | 21% | 34% |
64% agreed that the definition of Australian values describes Julia Gillard, 39% Tony Abbott and 36% Bob Brown.
Among their own voters – 90% of Labor voters agreed they describe Julia Gillard, 73% of Liberal/National voters agreed they describe Tony Abbott and 72% of Greens voters agreed they describe Bob Brown.
By gender – 62% of men and 68% of women agree they describe Julia Gillard and 43% of men and 34% of women agree they describe Tony Abbott. Comments »
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 20 May 2013
In this week's report:
3Q: Latest episodes
-
Essential Report with EMC’s Peter Lewis and Jackie Woods
Comments19 Sep 2012Lewis and Woods talk through this week’s polling numbers: voting intention, leader attributes, drug laws in Australia, and more…
-
Are we ready for the grey revolution?
Comments12 Sep 2012Ken Morrison says our cities need to be transformed for our ageing population – and it’s not solely about nursing homes.
-
Ships, trains and submarines — can we build them here?
Comments11 Sep 2012Tim Ayres wishes Clive Palmer and other mining giants would give local manufacturers a go instead of heading overseas.
-
Do we undervalue our public sector innovations?
Comments11 Sep 2012Nadine Flood questions whether governments take our science and other publicly funded breakthroughs for granted.
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