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  • Aug, 2011

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    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    sample size = 1,899

    First preference/leaning to Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
    Liberal 46% 46% 45% 46%
    National 3% 3% 3% 3%
    Total Lib/Nat 43.6 49% 49% 48% 49%
    Labor 38.0 32% 31% 32% 31%
    Greens 11.8 11% 11% 11% 11%
    Other/Independent 6.6 9% 9% 9% 9%
    2PP Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
    Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 56% 56% 55% 56%
    Labor 50.1% 44% 44% 45% 44%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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  • Aug, 2011

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    Importance of Carbon Pricing Issue

    Q. How important is the issue of the carbon pricing scheme in deciding which party you would vote for?

    Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
    Very important 30% 25% 39% 33%
    Somewhat important 29% 28% 31% 35%
    A little important 21% 25% 16% 18%
    Not at all important 13% 18% 12% 8%
    Don’t know 7% 3% 2% 6%

    30% say that the carbon pricing scheme is very important to their voting decision and 29% say it is somewhat important. Liberal/National voters are more likely to consider it very important (39%).

    The carbon pricing issue is more important to those who are opposed than those who support it. 68% of those who oppose the scheme say it is very/somewhat important compared to 58% of those who support it.

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  • Aug, 2011

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    Tony Abbott’s belief in Climate Change

    Q. What do you think Tony Abbott actually believes about climate change?

    Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
    Does not believe in climate change 19% 28% 14% 34%
    Does believe in climate change 27% 13% 46% 8%
    Doesn’t care whether climate change is real or not 31% 48% 17% 42%
    Don’t know 22% 11% 22% 16%

    31% of respondents think that Tony Abbott doesn’t care whether climate change is real or not, 27% think he believes in climate change and 19% think he doesn’t.

    46% of Liberal/National voters think he believes in climate change compared to only 13% of Labor voters and 8% of Greens voters. 34% of Greens voters think he does not believe in climate change and 48% of Labor voters think he doesn’t care whether climate change is real or not.

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  • Jul, 2011

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    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    sample size = 1926

    First preference/leaning to Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
    Liberal 45% 47% 46% 45%
    National 3% 3% 3% 3%
    Total Lib/Nat 43.6 48% 50% 49% 48%
    Labor 38.0 32% 30% 31% 32%
    Greens 11.8 11% 11% 11% 11%
    Other/Independent 6.6 9% 9% 9% 9%
    2PP Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
    Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 55% 57% 56% 55%
    Labor 50.1% 45% 43% 44% 45%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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  • Jul, 2011

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    Overturning the Carbon Pricing Scheme

    Q. If the Government introduces their carbon pricing scheme Tony Abbott has said that if the Liberal Party wins the next election he will repeal this legislation. Do you support or oppose his proposal to overturn the carbon pricing scheme after it has been put in place?

    Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
    Total support 50% 24% 81% 15%
    Total oppose 36% 63% 9% 73%
    Strongly support 30% 8% 56% 8%
    Support 20% 16% 25% 7%
    Oppose 14% 19% 7% 12%
    Strongly oppose 22% 44% 2% 61%
    Don’t know 15% 13% 9% 10%

    Overall, 50% of respondents support Tony Abbott’s proposal to overturn the carbon pricing scheme after it has been put in place.

    Not surprisingly 81% of Lib/Nat voters support Tony Abbott’s proposal. 63% of Labor voters, and 73% of Green voters oppose Tony Abbott’s proposal.

    Support for Tony Abbott’s proposal increased with age, with 63% of those aged 65+, compared to 36% of those aged 18-24 supporting the proposal to overturn the carbon pricing scheme.

    Males (53%) were slightly more likely than females (47%) to support Tony Abbott’s proposal.

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  • Jul, 2011

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    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    sample size = 1,899

    First preference/leaning to Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
    Liberal 45% 46% 47% 46%
    National 3% 3% 3% 3%
    Total Lib/Nat 43.6 47% 49% 50% 49%
    Labor 38.0 32% 32% 30% 31%
    Greens 11.8 12% 11% 11% 11%
    Other/Independent 6.6 9% 9% 9% 9%
    2PP Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
    Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 55% 56% 57% 56%
    Labor 50.1% 45% 44% 43% 44%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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  • Jul, 2011

    , , , , , , , , , , ,

    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    sample size = 1,899

    First preference/leaning to Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
    Liberal 44% 45% 46% 47%
    National 3% 3% 3% 3%
    Total Lib/Nat 43.6 46% 48% 49% 50%
    Labor 38.0 34% 32% 32% 30%
    Greens 11.8 12% 11% 11% 11%
    Other/Independent 6.6 8% 9% 9% 9%
    2PP Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
    Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 54% 55% 56% 57%
    Labor 50.1% 46% 45% 44% 43%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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  • Jul, 2011

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    Approval of Julia Gillard

    Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

    Kevin Rudd Julia Gillard
    31 May

    2010

    19 Jul 20 Sep 20 Dec 17 Jan 2011 14 Feb 14 Mar 11 Apr 9 May 14 June 11 July
    Total approve 41% 52% 45% 43% 51% 48% 41% 37% 41% 34% 29%
    Total disapprove 47% 30% 37% 40% 36% 41% 46% 50% 48% 54% 62%
    Strongly approve 7% 11% 12% 10% 8% 9% 7% 7% 7% 6% 5%
    Approve 34% 41% 33% 33% 43% 39% 34% 30% 34% 28% 24%
    Disapprove 25% 17% 21% 24% 24% 25% 22% 25% 26% 29% 30%
    Strongly disapprove 22% 13% 16% 16% 12% 16% 24% 25% 22% 25% 32%
    Don’t know 12% 18% 19% 17% 14% 11% 13% 13% 11% 13% 9%

    29% (down 5%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 62% (up 8%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -20 to -33 over the last 4 weeks.

    72% of Labor voters approve (down 4%) and 20% disapprove (up 6%).

    By gender – men 31% approve/63% disapprove, women 28% approve/61% disapprove.

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