2PP, Election, Essential Report, federal politics, Greens, Julia Gillard, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, Prime Minister, tony abbott, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,921
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 43% | 44% | 44% | 44% | |
| National | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6 | 46% | 47% | 46% | 46% |
| Labor | 38.0 | 36% | 34% | 34% | 34% |
| Greens | 11.8 | 11% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6 | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 52% | 54% | 53% | 54% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 48% | 46% | 47% | 46% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
approval of PM, Essential Report, federal politics, Gillard, Greens, Julia Gillard, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, Prime Minister
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
| Kevin Rudd | Julia Gillard | |||||||||
| 31 May
2010 |
19 Jul | 20 Sep | 20 Dec | 17 Jan 2011 | 14 Feb | 14 Mar | 11 Apr | 9 May | 14 June | |
| Total approve | 41% | 52% | 45% | 43% | 51% | 48% | 41% | 37% | 41% | 34% |
| Total disapprove | 47% | 30% | 37% | 40% | 36% | 41% | 46% | 50% | 48% | 54% |
| Strongly approve | 7% | 11% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% |
| Approve | 34% | 41% | 33% | 33% | 43% | 39% | 34% | 30% | 34% | 28% |
| Disapprove | 25% | 17% | 21% | 24% | 24% | 25% | 22% | 25% | 26% | 29% |
| Strongly disapprove | 22% | 13% | 16% | 16% | 12% | 16% | 24% | 25% | 22% | 25% |
| Don’t know | 12% | 18% | 19% | 17% | 14% | 11% | 13% | 13% | 11% | 13% |
34% (down 7%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 54% (up 6%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -7 to -20 over the last 5 weeks.
76% of Labor voters approve (down 10%) and 14% disapprove (up 4%).
By gender – men 34% approve/57% disapprove, women 35% approve/49% disapprove.
Approval of opposition leader, approval of PM, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, Prime Minister, tony abbott
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
| 18 Jan
2010 |
29 Mar | 5 Jul | 20 Sep | 20 Dec | 17 Jan 2011 | 14 Feb | 14 Mar | 11 Apr | 9 May | 14 June | |
| Total approve | 37% | 33% | 37% | 43% | 39% | 42% | 38% | 38% | 36% | 42% | 38% |
| Total disapprove | 37% | 50% | 47% | 37% | 39% | 37% | 46% | 47% | 48% | 44% | 48% |
| Strongly approve | 5% | 8% | 8% | 12% | 9% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 6% |
| Approve | 32% | 25% | 29% | 31% | 30% | 35% | 30% | 31% | 29% | 34% | 32% |
| Disapprove | 20% | 28% | 23% | 21% | 21% | 22% | 24% | 24% | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Strongly disapprove | 17% | 22% | 24% | 16% | 18% | 15% | 22% | 23% | 23% | 19% | 23% |
| Don’t know | 26% | 16% | 16% | 19% | 22% | 20% | 16% | 16% | 17% | 14% | 15% |
38% (down 4%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 48% (up 4%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -2 to -10 over the last 4 weeks.
70% of Coalition voters approve and 20% disapprove.
By gender – men 44% approve/47% disapprove, women 32% approve/49% disapprove.
Essential Report, Greens, Julia Gillard, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, preferred PM, Prime Minister, tony abbott
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul 2010 | 17 Jan 2011 | 14 Feb | 14 Mar | 11 Apr | 9 May | 14 June | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott
21 Jun 10 |
||
| Julia Gillard | 53% | 47% | 48% | 44% | 42% | 43% | 41% | 84% | 7% | 65% | 47% | |
| Tony Abbott | 26% | 32% | 31% | 33% | 33% | 35% | 36% | 5% | 73% | 11% | 30% | |
| Don’t know | 21% | 21% | 20% | 23% | 24% | 22% | 24% | 11% | 20% | 24% | 23% |
41% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 36% prefer Tony Abbott – a net decrease for Julia Gillard of 3% on last month’s figures (from +8% to +5%).
Men are split 40%/40% and women favour Julia Gillard 41%/32%.
climate change, earth’s climate, Essential Report, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls
Q. Do you believe that there is fairly conclusive evidence that climate change is happening and caused by human activity or do you believe that the evidence is still not in and we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate which happens from time to time?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Men | Women | Aged 18-34 | Aged 35-54 | Aged 55+ | Nov 09 | Dec 10 | 30 May 11 | ||
| Climate change is happening and is caused by human activity | 50% | 64% | 34% | 83% | 45% | 54% | 60% | 49% | 38% | 53% | 45% | 52% | |
| We are just witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate | 39% | 28% | 55% | 10% | 44% | 33% | 27% | 37% | 55% | 34% | 36% | 36% | |
| Don’t know | 12% | 9% | 11% | 6% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 14% | 8% | 13% | 19% | 12% |
50% agree that climate change is happening and is caused by human activity and 39% believe that we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate. This is little changed since this question was last asked in May.
By age groups, those aged under 35 split 60%/27% and those aged 55+ split 38%/55%.
climate change, Climate Change action, Essential Report, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls
Q. How confident are you that climate change can be averted if we take action now?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Very confident | 13% | 16% | 11% | 18% |
| Somewhat confident | 48% | 52% | 45% | 45% |
| Not very confident | 30% | 27% | 32% | 30% |
| Not at all confident | 6% | 2% | 10% | 5% |
| Don’t know | 2% | 3% | 1% | 3% |
*Based on those who believe “climate change is happening”
Of those who believe climate change is happening, 61% are very or somewhat confident that climate change can be averted if we take action now. A majority of all voter groups are very/somewhat confident.
By age, 68% of aged under 35 are confident compared to 58% of those aged 55+.
Carbon Pricing, Carbon Tax, Essential Report, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, tax
Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s recent announcement to introduce a carbon pricing scheme from 1 July 2012, which will require industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?
| 7 March | 14 March | 28 March | 18 April | 23 May | 30 May | Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total support | 35% | 38% | 34% | 39% | 41% | 38% | 38% | 60% | 19% | 68% |
| Total oppose | 48% | 49% | 51% | 49% | 44% | 48% | 49% | 28% | 72% | 18% |
| Strongly support | 9% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 24% | 3% | 35% |
| Support | 26% | 26% | 22% | 26% | 27% | 24% | 25% | 36% | 16% | 33% |
| Oppose | 19% | 17% | 19% | 15% | 15% | 19% | 19% | 17% | 20% | 10% |
| Strongly oppose | 29% | 32% | 32% | 34% | 29% | 29% | 30% | 11% | 52% | 8% |
| Don’t know | 18% | 13% | 15% | 12% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 12% | 9% | 13% |
38% support the Government’s proposed carbon pricing scheme and 49% oppose – no significant change since the question was asked in May. It is supported by 60% of Labor voters and 68% of Greens voters but opposed by 72% of coalition voters.
By age, those aged under 35 split 46% support/39% oppose, and those aged 55+ split 31% support/62% oppose.
approach to asylum seekers, asylum seekers, Essential Report, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Malaysia, Nationals, Polling, polls
Q. The Government has announced a possible agreement with Malaysia on asylum seekers. Under these agreements, asylum seekers arriving by boat in Australia will be sent to Malaysia for processing, and in return Australia will take a fixed number of refugees from Malaysia. How much have you heard about this proposal?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| A lot | 27% | 24% | 34% | 27% |
| Something | 31% | 38% | 29% | 30% |
| A little | 29% | 28% | 29% | 28% |
| Nothing | 9% | 8% | 6% | 14% |
| Don’t know | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
58% said they had heard a lot or something about the Government’s possible agreement with Malaysia on asylum seekers. Awareness was similar across voter groups.