approval, Bill Shorten, Essential Media, Essential Report, Federal Government, federal politics, Greens, Greg Combet, Julia Gillard, kevin rudd, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, preferred PM, Voting intention, Wayne Swan
Q. Which of the following do you think would make the best leader of the Labor Party?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Julia Gillard | 23% | 51% | 10% | 26% |
| Kevin Rudd | 32% | 31% | 31% | 31% |
| Wayne Swan | 2% | 1% | 3% | 3% |
| Greg Combet | 4% | 5% | 3% | 6% |
| Bill Shorten | 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% |
| Someone else | 19% | 5% | 31% | 11% |
| Don’t know | 17% | 5% | 18% | 19% |
32% think Kevin Rudd would make the best leader of the Labor Party and 23% prefer Julia Gillard. Julia Gillard is preferred by 51% of Labor voters compared to 31% for Kevin Rudd. Men prefer Kevin Rudd over Julia Gillard 34% to 21% and women by 30% to 25%.
Andrew Robb, Approval of opposition leader, Essential Report, Federal Government, federal politics, Greens, Joe Hockey, Julie Bishop, Labor, leadership, Liberal, malcolm turnbull, Nationals, Polling, polls, tony abbott, Voting intention
Q. Which of the following do you think would make the best leader of the Liberal Party?
| 27 Sep 2010 | 28 Feb 2011 | 30 May 2011 | ||||
| Total | Total | Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Tony Abbott | 26% | 24% | 22% | 10% | 40% | 7% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 20% | 18% | 25% | 35% | 19% | 33% |
| Joe Hockey | 15% | 16% | 17% | 13% | 22% | 18% |
| Julie Bishop | 5% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| Andrew Robb | na | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Someone else | na | 14% | 13% | 17% | 7% | 16% |
| Don’t know | 33% | 22% | 19% | 20% | 8% | 22% |
25% (+7%) think Malcolm Turnbull would make the best leader of the Liberal Party, 22% (-3%) prefer Tony Abbott and 17% (+1%) Joe Hockey.
Among Liberal/National voters, 40% prefer Tony Abbott, 22% Joe Hockey and 19% Malcolm Turnbull.
Malcolm Turnbull is preferred by 25% of men and 24% of women, Tony Abbott by 24% of men and 19% of women.
climate change, earth’s climate, environment, Essential Report, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls
Q. Do you agree that there is fairly conclusive evidence that climate change is happening and caused by human activity or do you believe that the evidence is still not in and we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate which happens from time to time?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Nov 09 | Dec 10 | ||
| Climate change is happening and is caused by human activity | 52% | 71% | 34% | 78% | 53% | 45% | |
| We are just witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate | 36% | 20% | 54% | 14% | 34% | 36% | |
| Don’t know | 12% | 8% | 12% | 8% | 13% | 19% |
52% agree that climate change is happening and is caused by human activity and 36% believe that we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate. This is a significant increase in the belief that climate change is happening and caused by human activity since December last year (and a return to the levels recorded in November 2009).
By age groups, those aged under 35 split 64%/24% and those aged 55+ split 47%/48%.
Carbon Pricing, Carbon Tax, environment, Essential Media, Essential Report, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, tax
Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s recent announcement to introduce a carbon pricing scheme from 1 July 2012, which will require industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?
| 7 March | 14 March | 28 March | 18 April | 23 May | 30 May | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total support | 35% | 38% | 34% | 39% | 41% | 38% | 62% | 17% | 62% |
| Total oppose | 48% | 49% | 51% | 49% | 44% | 48% | 22% | 73% | 23% |
| Strongly support | 9% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 14% | 14% | 26% | 4% | 29% |
| Support | 26% | 26% | 22% | 26% | 27% | 24% | 36% | 13% | 33% |
| Oppose | 19% | 17% | 19% | 15% | 15% | 19% | 13% | 23% | 17% |
| Strongly oppose | 29% | 32% | 32% | 34% | 29% | 29% | 9% | 50% | 6% |
| Don’t know | 18% | 13% | 15% | 12% | 15% | 15% | 16% | 11% | 14% |
38% support the Government’s proposed carbon pricing scheme and 48% oppose. Although a change from last week’s figures this is much the same as recorded in the April poll. It is supported by 62% of Labor and Greens voters but opposed by 73% of coalition voters.
By age, those aged under 35 split 44% support/35% oppose, and those aged 55+ split 33% support/58% oppose.
For those who believe that climate change is happening and is caused by human activity 60% support and 24% oppose. For those who believe that we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate 13% support and 80% oppose
Carbon Tax, Election, Essential Media, Essential Report, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, tax
Q. Do you think the Government should call an early election over the carbon tax?
| 28 March | 31 May | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Yes | 40% | 42% | 15% | 71% | 18% |
| No | 44% | 42% | 68% | 19% | 66% |
| Don’t know | 17% | 16% | 17% | 11% | 16% |
42% think the Government should call an early election over the carbon tax and 42% disagree. This is similar to the views recorded in the previous poll in March and is strongly associated with voting intention.
carbon pricing scheme, Carbon Tax, climate change, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, tax
Q. Thinking about Carbon Tax, how would you expect it will be paid? (This question has been commissioned by Network Ten)
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Men | Women | Age
18-34 |
Aged
35-54 |
Aged 55+ | |
| Industries will have to absorb the costs | 14% | 17% | 9% | 22% | 14% | 13% | 16% | 14% | 10% |
| Consumers will end up paying it because industry will increase prices | 63% | 54% | 79% | 40% | 63% | 63% | 59% | 65% | 65% |
| Industries will pay and consumers will be compensated for any price increases | 13% | 17% | 8% | 32% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 16% |
| Don’t know | 10% | 11% | 4% | 6% | 10% | 11% | 13% | 10% | 8% |
Nearly two thirds (63%) of respondents believe that consumers will end up paying the carbon tax because industry will increase prices – 14% think industries will have to absorb the costs and 13% think industries will pay but consumers will be compensated for price increases.
Greens voters are least likely to think that consumers will end up paying for it (40%). Otherwise perceptions are similar across demographic groups.
Of those who think consumers will end up paying, 30% support the scheme and 58% oppose.
Of those who think industry will absorb the costs, 74% support the scheme and 21% oppose.
Of those who think Industries will pay and consumers will be compensated, 74% support the scheme and 19% oppose.
Essential Media, Essential Report, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, two party preferred, voting, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,881
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 43% | 44% | 43% | 44% | |
| National | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6 | 47% | 47% | 46% | 46% |
| Labor | 38.0 | 35% | 35% | 36% | 34% |
| Greens | 11.8 | 10% | 10% | 11% | 12% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6 | 8% | 8% | 7% | 8% |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 54% | 54% | 52% | 53% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 46% | 46% | 48% | 47% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
Essential Media, Essential Report, family payments, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, welfare
Q. The Federal Budget has frozen the income levels above which parents become ineligible for family payments. Do you approve or disapprove of this decision?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total approve | 52% | 65% | 47% | 56% |
| Total disapprove | 28% | 18% | 38% | 22% |
| Strongly approve | 17% | 25% | 12% | 24% |
| Approve | 35% | 40% | 35% | 32% |
| Disapprove | 20% | 13% | 25% | 19% |
| Strongly disapprove | 8% | 5% | 13% | 3% |
| Don’t know | 20% | 17% | 14% | 22% |
52% of respondents approve of freezing the income levels above which parents become ineligible for family payments and 28% oppose.
65% Labor and 56% of Greens voters approve – and Liberal/National voters are more likely to approve than disapprove (47%/38%).
Respondents with dependent children approve 47%/37% and households earning over $150,000 approve 48%/37%.