Labor should tread (water) warily
First Published on The Drum 19/10/2010
As the Federal Government attempts to quell the backlash to its plans to save the Murray Darling by slowing the process to a crawl, it would do well to consider the lessons of the recently aborted Emissions Trading Scheme.
If there were a structured training program for politicians (and maybe there should be) the former Rudd government’s failure to deliver on its commitment to address climate change would be a required text.
It is a story of how tortured process can kill off reform, confuse would-be supporters, drain the public of confidence in their government and ultimately leave leaders in a no-win situation.
Most important environmental problem
Q. Which of these do you think is the most important environmental problem facing Australia today?
Q. And which would you say is the second most important?
| Most important | Second most important | Total | |
| Water supply | 33% | 20% | 53% |
| The health of rivers and waterways | 17% | 21% | 38% |
| Pollution | 14% | 17% | 31% |
| Climate change | 16% | 14% | 30% |
| Loss of native habitat | 8% | 11% | 19% |
| Logging of native forests | 4% | 8% | 12% |
| Greenhouse gases | 2% | 6% | 8% |
| Don’t know | 6% | 2% | 6% |
Water supply (53%) and the health of rivers and waterways (38%) were considered the most important environmental problems facing Australia today.
Younger respondents were more likely to nominate climate change (36% of aged under 45) while 47% of those aged 45+ nominated the health of rivers and waterways. Water supply was the top issue for all segments except Green voters who nominated climate change as their most important issue (51%).
Important election issues
Q. Which are the three most important issues in deciding how you would vote at a Federal election? (Number from 1 to 3 where 1 is the most important, 2 the second most important, etc)
| One | Two | Three | Total | Total 10th May 10 | Total 25th Jan 10 | |
| Management of the economy | 38% | 15% | 9% | 62% | 62% | 63% |
| Ensuring a quality education for all children | 6% | 12% | 14% | 32% | 19% | 23% |
| Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system | 14% | 21% | 13% | 48% | 50% | 48% |
| Protecting the environment | 3% | 4% | 5% | 12% | 13% | 16% |
| A fair industrial relations system | 3% | 5% | 3% | 11% | 10% | * |
| Political leadership | 6% | 5% | 5% | 16% | 12% | 23% |
| Addressing climate change | 4% | 3% | 4% | 11% | 12% | 16% |
| Controlling interest rates | 4% | 6% | 7% | 17% | 16% | 15% |
| Australian jobs and protection of local industries | 8% | 10% | 12% | 30% | 29% | 33% |
| Ensuring a quality water supply | 1% | 3% | 2% | 6% | 7% | 12% |
| Housing affordability | 5% | 4% | 8% | 17% | 17% | 14% |
| Ensuring a fair taxation system | 4% | 5% | 7% | 16% | 17% | 14% |
| Security and the war on terrorism | 1% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 7% | 9% |
| Treatment of asylum seekers | 1% | 2% | 2% | 5% | * | * |
| Managing population growth | 2% | 3% | 5% | 10% | 14% | * |
*Not asked
62% of people surveyed rate management of the economy as one of their three most important issues, followed by 48% ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system, 32% ensuring a quality education for all children and 30% Australian jobs and protection of local industries.
Only 11% rate addressing climate change as one of their three most important issues and 6% rate ensuring a quality water supply. The major change since the previous survey in May, was an increase in the importance of ensuring a quality education for all children from 19% to 32%.
Important election issues
Q. Which are the three most important issues in deciding how you would vote at a Federal election? (Number from 1 to 3 where 1 is the most important, 2 the second most important, etc)
| Total | Labor | Liberal | Green | |
| Management of the economy | 62% | 59% | 74% | 46% |
| Ensuring a quality education for all children | 32% | 37% | 26% | 23% |
| Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system | 48% | 53% | 47% | 43% |
| Protecting the environment | 12% | 12% | 8% | 27% |
| A fair industrial relations system | 11% | 18% | 6% | 14% |
| Political leadership | 16% | 16% | 17% | 10% |
| Addressing climate change | 11% | 15% | 4% | 35% |
| Controlling interest rates | 17% | 11% | 22% | 12% |
| Australian jobs and protection of local industries | 30% | 34% | 27% | 15% |
| Ensuring a quality water supply | 6% | 4% | 8% | 13% |
| Housing affordability | 17% | 12% | 16% | 20% |
| Ensuring a fair taxation system | 16% | 12% | 20% | 16% |
| Security and the war on terrorism | 6% | 3% | 8% | 2% |
| Treatment of asylum seekers | 5% | 3% | 5% | 10% |
| Managing population growth | 10% | 7% | 13% | 9% |
Labor voters are more likely to rate ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system (53%), ensuring a quality education for all children (37%) and a fair industrial relations system (18%) as important.
Liberal/National voters attach more importance to management of the economy (74%) and controlling interest rates (22%) while Greens voters are more likely to nominate addressing climate change (35%) and protecting the environment (27%).
Importance of ETS
Q. How important for Australia do you think it is for the new Labor Government to move quickly to implement an emissions trading scheme or some other scheme (such as a tax on carbon) to address climate change?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens
|
|
| Very Important | 37% | 54% | 20% | 72% |
| Not that Important | 27% | 12% | 47% | 5% |
| A top priority | 13% | 18% | 6% | 40% |
| Very important | 24% | 36% | 14% | 32% |
| Somewhat important | 26% | 29% | 24% | 19% |
| Not that important | 14% | 6% | 24% | 3% |
| Not important at all | 13% | 6% | 23% | 2% |
| Don’t know | 10% | 5% | 8% | 4% |
37% of people think it is very important to implement an ETS or other scheme to address climate change.
54% of Labor voters, compared with 20% of Lib/Nat voters think it is very important to implement an ETS or other scheme to address climate change. 72% of Green voters think it is very important to implement an ETS or other scheme to address climate change.
48% of those aged 18-24, compared with 26% of those aged 65+ it is very important to implement an ETS or other scheme to address climate change.
42% of Victorians, compared with 30% of Queenslanders it is very important to implement an ETS or other scheme to address climate change.
There was no significant difference between the genders.
Importance of Issues in Voting
Q. How important are the following in deciding which party you will vote for?
| Top priority | Very important | Quite important | Not so important | Don’t know | |
| Better at handling Australia’s economy | 37% | 48% | 10% | 1% | 4% |
| They have better policies on things like education and health | 31% | 47% | 16% | 1% | 4% |
| They are more capable of governing effectively than the other parties | 30% | 47% | 16% | 1% | 6% |
| They are more likely to represent the interests of all Australians | 30% | 45% | 18% | 3% | 5% |
| They will do things that help me and my family | 28% | 42% | 21% | 4% | 5% |
| They have better policies on things like national security and immigration | 24% | 42% | 22% | 6% | 5% |
| Better at looking after the interests people like me | 23% | 47% | 22% | 4% | 4% |
| They have better policies on things like industrial relations and supporting Australian workers | 23% | 44% | 24% | 4% | 5% |
| More trustworthy than the other parties | 22% | 44% | 21% | 5% | 8% |
| They have better policies on things like environment and climate change | 21% | 41% | 23% | 9% | 5% |
| They have a better leader | 16% | 40% | 28% | 8% | 7% |
| I always vote for them | 9% | 15% | 24% | 42% | 10% |
Key factors in deciding which party to vote for are handling the economy (37% top priority), policies on education and health (31%), capable of governing effectively (30%) and representing the interests of all Australians (30%). Comments »
Important Issues
Q. Which are the three most important issues in deciding how you would vote at a Federal election?
| First | Second | Third | Total | Total
10 May 10 |
Difference | |
| Management of the economy | 38% | 18% | 7% | 63% | 62% | +1% |
| Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system | 16% | 20% | 19% | 55% | 50% | +5% |
| Australian jobs and protection of local industries | 7% | 8% | 9% | 24% | 29% | -5% |
| Ensuring a quality education for all children | 4% | 11% | 9% | 24% | 19% | +5% |
| Ensuring a fair taxation system | 4% | 6% | 8% | 18% | 22% | -4% |
| Protecting the environment | 5% | 5% | 5% | 15% | 13% | +2% |
| Political leadership | 6% | 3% | 4% | 13% | 12% | +1% |
| Housing affordability | 4% | 4% | 5% | 13% | 17% | -4% |
| Addressing climate change | 4% | 4% | 4% | 12% | 12% | – |
| Controlling interest rates | 3% | 5% | 4% | 12% | 16% | -4% |
| Managing population growth | 1% | 4% | 7% | 12% | 14% | -2% |
| Treatment of asylum seekers | 4% | 3% | 4% | 11% | * | |
| A fair industrial relations system | 2% | 4% | 5% | 11% | 9% | +2% |
| Security and the war on terrorism | 1% | 2% | 5% | 8% | 7% | +1% |
| Ensuring a quality water supply | 1% | 1% | 4% | 6% | 7% | -1% |
*Not asked in May 2010 poll
The most important election issues were management of the economy, the quality of the health system, jobs and local industry and a quality education for all children.
Since this issue was last polled in May, health and education have increased in importance (both +5%) and Australian jobs and protection of local industry declined 5%. Comments »
Party best at Handling Issues
Q. And which party would you trust most to handle the following issues?
| Labor | Liberal | Greens | Don’t know | |
| A fair industrial relations system | 45% | 24% | 5% | 26% |
| Ensuring a quality education for all children | 41% | 25% | 4% | 29% |
| Australian jobs and protection of local industries | 42% | 28% | 3% | 27% |
| Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system | 38% | 27% | 4% | 31% |
| Ensuring a fair taxation system | 36% | 28% | 4% | 32% |
| Housing affordability | 30% | 24% | 4% | 41% |
| Political leadership | 33% | 30% | 5% | 33% |
| Ensuring a quality water supply | 23% | 23% | 22% | 32% |
| Managing population growth | 24% | 27% | 9% | 40% |
| Security and the war on terrorism | 25% | 30% | 3% | 42% |
| Management of the economy | 32% | 38% | 3% | 27% |
| Treatment of asylum seekers | 23% | 29% | 11% | 37% |
| Controlling interest rates | 28% | 35% | 2% | 35% |
| Addressing climate change | 18% | 16% | 36% | 29% |
| Protecting the environment | 17% | 13% | 47% | 23% |
Labor have a substantial lead over the Liberal Party as the best party to handle a fair industrial relations system (+21%), quality education for all (+16%), Australian jobs and protection of industries (+14%) and ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system (+11%).
The Liberal Party’s main strengths were controlling interest rates (+7%), treatment of asylum seekers (+6%) and management of the economy (+6%).
The Greens were thought to be the best party for protecting the environment (47%) and addressing climate change (36%). Comments »
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