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  • Jul, 2012

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    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    Sample size = 1,857 respondents

    First preference/leaning to

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago

    18/6/12

    2 weeks ago

    2/7/12

    Last week

    9/7/12

    This week

    16/7/12

    Liberal

    46%

    45%

    46%

    46%

    National

    3%

    3%

    4%

    3%

    Total Lib/Nat

    43.6%

    49%

    49%

    49%

    49%

    Labor

    38.0%

    33%

    32%

    31%

    31%

    Greens

    11.8%

    10%

    10%

    11%

    10%

    Other/Independent

    6.6%

    8%

    9%

    9%

    9%

    2PP

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago

    2 weeks ago

    Last week

    This week

    Total Lib/Nat

    49.9%

    56%

    56%

    56%

    57%

    Labor

    50.1%

    44%

    44%

    44%

    43%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.

  • Jul, 2012

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    Approval of Julia Gillard

    Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

     

    19 Jul 2010

    20 Dec

    14 Mar

    2011

    14 June

    12 Sept

    12 Dec

    12 Mar 2012

    12 Jun

    16 Jul

    Total approve

    52%

    43%

    41%

    34%

    28%

    34%

    32%

    32%

    32%

    Total disapprove

    30%

    40%

    46%

    54%

    64%

    54%

    61%

    56%

    58%

    Strongly approve

    11%

    10%

    7%

    6%

    5%

    6%

    8%

    6%

    5%

    Approve

    41%

    33%

    34%

    28%

    23%

    28%

    24%

    26%

    27%

    Disapprove

    17%

    24%

    22%

    29%

    28%

    25%

    29%

    22%

    26%

    Strongly disapprove

    13%

    16%

    24%

    25%

    36%

    29%

    32%

    34%

    32%

    Don’t know

    18%

    17%

    13%

    13%

    8%

    11%

    7%

    12%

    10%

    Julia Gillard’s approval rating has changed little since last month. 32% (no change) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 58% (up 2%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -24 to -26 over the last 5 weeks.

    73% of Labor voters approve (down 1%) and 19% disapprove (up 3%).

    By gender – men 32% approve/60% disapprove, women 33% approve/57% disapprove.

  • Jul, 2012

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    Approval of Tony Abbott

    Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

     

    18 Jan

    2010

    5 Jul

     

    20 Dec

    14 Mar

    2011

    14 June

    12 Sept

    12 Dec

    12 Mar 2012

    12 Jun

    16 Jul

    Total approve

    37%

    37%

    39%

    38%

    38%

    39%

    32%

    36%

    32%

    35%

    Total disapprove

    37%

    47%

    39%

    47%

    48%

    50%

    53%

    52%

    54%

    53%

    Strongly approve

    5%

    8%

    9%

    7%

    6%

    8%

    6%

    7%

    6%

    7%

    Approve

    32%

    29%

    30%

    31%

    32%

    31%

    26%

    29%

    26%

    28%

    Disapprove

    20%

    23%

    21%

    24%

    25%

    23%

    25%

    23%

    24%

    23%

    Strongly disapprove

    17%

    24%

    18%

    23%

    23%

    27%

    28%

    29%

    30%

    30%

    Don’t know

    26%

    16%

    22%

    16%

    15%

    11%

    14%

    12%

    13%

    12%

    Tony Abbott’s approval rating has improved a little over the last month. 35% (up 3%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 53% (down 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -22 to -18 over the last 5 weeks.

    67% (no change) of Coalition voters approve and 26% (up 4%) disapprove.

    By gender – men 38% approve/53% disapprove, women 32% approve/53% disapprove.

  • Jul, 2012

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    Better Prime Minister

    Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

     

    5 Jul 2010

    14 Mar 2011

    14 June

    12 Sept

    12 Dec

    12 Mar 2012

    12 Jun

    Total

    16 Jul

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Julia Gillard

    53%

    44%

    41%

    36%

    39%

    40%

    37%

    37%

    76%

    5%

    83%

    Tony Abbott

    26%

    33%

    36%

    40%

    35%

    37%

    37%

    38%

    4%

    76%

    5%

    Don’t know

    21%

    23%

    24%

    24%

    26%

    23%

    26%

    26%

    19%

    19%

    13%

    37% (no change) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 38% (up 1%) prefer Tony Abbott.

    Men prefer Tony Abbott 40%/36% and women prefer Julia Gillard 37%/35%.

  • Jul, 2012

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    Performance of the Greens

    Q. Do you think the performance of the Greens in Federal Parliament has been good or poor?

     

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Total good

    17%

    21%

    7%

    71%

    Total poor

    47%

    37%

    65%

    4%

    Very good

    3%

    4%

    *

    18%

    Good

    14%

    17%

    7%

    53%

    Neither good nor poor

    27%

    35%

    21%

    21%

    Poor

    19%

    22%

    21%

    1%

    Very poor

    28%

    15%

    44%

    3%

    Don’t know

    10%

    7%

    7%

    4%

    17% think the performance of The Greens in Federal Parliament has been good or very good and 47% think it has been poor or very poor.

    Labor voters tend to think The Greens’ performance has been poor/very poor  (37%) or neither good nor poor (35%) – and only 21% think it has been good/very good.

    Among respondents aged under 35, 24% think The Greens’ performance has been good/very good and 29% think it has been poor/very poor.

  • Jul, 2012

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    Greens Policies

    Q. Do you think that The Greens’ policies are too extreme or do they represent the views of many voters?

     

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Too extreme

    53%

    50%

    70%

    4%

    Represent the views of many voters

    26%

    27%

    18%

    87%

    Don’t know

    21%

    23%

    12%

    9%

    53% think The Greens’ policies are too extreme and 26% think they represent the views of many voters.

    Those most likely to think The Greens’ policies are too extreme were men (61%), aged 55+ (77%) and Liberal/National voters (70%).

    37% of respondents aged under 35 think they represent the views of many voters and 35% think they are too extreme.

  • Jul, 2012

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    Support for Julian Assange

    Q. Julian Assange faces extradition from the UK to Sweden for an investigation into sexual assault allegations. In Sweden he will be detained while the investigation continues, and he may be extradited to the United States to face charges relating to WikiLeaks’s release of US diplomatic cables.

    Do you think the Australian government has provided appropriate support to Assange given he faces investigation for sexual assault in Sweden and possible extradition to the US?

     

    19 Mar 2012

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Government have provided appropriate support

    22%

    28%

    37%

    30%

    16%

    Government have not provided appropriate support

    36%

    33%

    34%

    32%

    42%

    Don’t know

    41%

    38%

    29%

    38%

    41%

    33% (down 3% since March) believe that Julian Assange has not received appropriate support from the Australian Government and 28% (up 6%) think he has received appropriate support. 38% could not give an opinion.

    39% of men think the Government has not provided appropriate support compared to 28% of women – mainly due the 47% of women who said they “don’t know”.  34% of respondents aged 18-34 think Julian Assange has not received appropriate support compared to 21% who think the Government has provided appropriate support.

  • Jul, 2012

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    Government Response if Julian Assange is Charged by US

    Q. Recently US government figures have indicated they want Julian Assange to be prosecuted. If he is charged by the US, what do you think the Australian Government should do?

     

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Support US attempts to prosecute him

    9%

    8%

    10%

    4%

    Call for the US to observe due process and offer consular support

    34%

    40%

    33%

    30%

    Offer him protection from extradition and prosecution.

    24%

    26%

    19%

    41%

    Do nothing

    13%

    12%

    17%

    7%

    Don’t know

    20%

    13%

    21%

    19%

    34% think that if Julian Assange is charged by the US, the Australian Government should call for the US to observe due process and offer consular support and 24% think the Government should offer him protection from extradition and prosecution. Only 9% think the Government should support US attempts to prosecute him and 13% think they should do nothing.

    Support for offering Assange protection was highest among older respondents – 31% of respondents aged 55+ compared to 22% of those aged under 35.

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