10 December 2012, 101212, 2PP, ALP, Liberals, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,888 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 12/11/12 |
2 weeks ago 26/11/12 |
Last week 3/12/12 |
This week 10/12/12 |
| Liberal |
|
42% |
44% |
44% |
45% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
45% |
47% |
47% |
48% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
37% |
36% |
37% |
36% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
10% |
9% |
8% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
8% |
8% |
7% |
8% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
52% |
53% |
53% |
54% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
48% |
47% |
47% |
46% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
10 December 2012, 101212, Approval of Julia Gillard, Prime Minister
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
|
|
19 |
20 Dec |
14 Mar |
14 June |
12 Sept |
12 Dec |
12 Mar 12 |
12 Jun |
10 Sept |
15 Oct |
12 Nov |
10 Dec |
| Total approve |
52% |
43% |
41% |
34% |
28% |
34% |
32% |
32% |
35% |
41% |
41% |
37% |
| Total disapprove |
30% |
40% |
46% |
54% |
64% |
54% |
61% |
56% |
54% |
51% |
49% |
53% |
| Strongly approve |
11% |
10% |
7% |
6% |
5% |
6% |
8% |
6% |
7% |
9% |
7% |
10% |
| Approve |
41% |
33% |
34% |
28% |
23% |
28% |
24% |
26% |
28% |
32% |
34% |
27% |
| Disapprove |
17% |
24% |
22% |
29% |
28% |
25% |
29% |
22% |
27% |
24% |
25% |
25% |
| Strongly disapprove |
13% |
16% |
24% |
25% |
36% |
29% |
32% |
34% |
27% |
27% |
24% |
28% |
| Don’t know |
18% |
17% |
13% |
13% |
8% |
11% |
7% |
12% |
11% |
8% |
10% |
11% |
37% (down 4%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 53% (up 4%) disapprove – an 8-point change in net rating from -8 to -16.
82% of Labor voters approve (down 3%) and 13% disapprove (up 5%).
By gender – men 36% approve/57% disapprove, women 38% approve/48% disapprove. In net terms this represents a shift with men from -16 to -21 and with women from 0 to -10.
10 December 2012, 101212, Approval of opposition leader, Approval of Tony Abbott
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
|
18 Jan |
5 |
20 Dec |
14 Mar |
14 Jun |
12 Sep |
12 Dec |
12 Mar 12 |
12 Jun |
10 Sept |
15 Oct |
12 Nov |
10 Dec |
|
| Total approve |
37% |
37% |
39% |
38% |
38% |
39% |
32% |
36% |
32% |
32% |
37% |
33% |
33% |
| Total disapprove |
37% |
47% |
39% |
47% |
48% |
50% |
53% |
52% |
54% |
55% |
54% |
58% |
56% |
| Strongly approve |
5% |
8% |
9% |
7% |
6% |
8% |
6% |
7% |
6% |
6% |
9% |
6% |
8% |
| Approve |
32% |
29% |
30% |
31% |
32% |
31% |
26% |
29% |
26% |
26% |
28% |
27% |
25% |
| Disapprove |
20% |
23% |
21% |
24% |
25% |
23% |
25% |
23% |
24% |
26% |
23% |
28% |
25% |
| Strongly disapprove |
17% |
24% |
18% |
23% |
23% |
27% |
28% |
29% |
30% |
29% |
31% |
30% |
31% |
| Don’t know |
26% |
16% |
22% |
16% |
15% |
11% |
14% |
12% |
13% |
13% |
9% |
10% |
12% |
33% (no change) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 56% (down 2%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -25 to -23 over the last 4 weeks.
63% (down 2%) of Coalition voters approve and 30% (up 1%) disapprove.
By gender – men 37% approve/55% disapprove, women 28% approve/56% disapprove. In net terms this represents a small improvement with men from -20 to -18 and with women from -30 to -28.
10 December 2012, 101212, Better Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, preferred PM, tony abbott
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
|
5 |
14 Mar 11 |
14 June |
12 Sept |
12 Dec |
12 Mar 12 |
12 Jun |
10 Sept |
15 Oct |
12 Nov |
10 Dec |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Julia Gillard |
53% |
44% |
41% |
36% |
39% |
40% |
37% |
40% |
43% |
45% |
43% |
92% |
6% |
80% |
| Tony Abbott |
26% |
33% |
36% |
40% |
35% |
37% |
37% |
37% |
36% |
32% |
34% |
4% |
71% |
1% |
| Don’t know |
21% |
23% |
24% |
24% |
26% |
23% |
26% |
24% |
20% |
23% |
23% |
5% |
23% |
19% |
43% (down 2%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 34% (up 2%) prefer Tony Abbott.
Men prefer Julia Gillard 40%/39% and women prefer Julia Gillard 46%/29%. Compared to last month’s figures, Julia Gillard’s margin over Tony Abbott has dropped 3 points among men (from 40%/36%) and 4 points among women (from 49%/28%).
10 December 2012, 101212, decrease in costs, electricity costs, gas costs, increase in costs
Q. Over the last few years, have your gas and/or electricity costs increased, decreased or stayed much the same?
| Total increased |
86% |
| Total decreased |
2% |
| Increased a lot |
45% |
| Increased a moderate amount |
26% |
| Increased a little |
15% |
| Stayed about the same |
8% |
| Decreased a little |
1% |
| Decreased a moderate amount |
* |
| Decreased a lot |
1% |
| Don’t know |
5% |
86% say their power costs have increased over the last few years including 45% who say their costs have increased a lot.
Those most likely to say their power costs have increased a lot were aged 45-54 (59%) and Liberal/National voters (50%).
There were no substantial differences across income groups.
88% of those with air conditioning or evaporative cooling said their power costs had increased including 47% who said they have increased a lot.
In comparison, 79% of those without air conditioning or evaporative cooling said their power costs had increased including 40% who said they have increased a lot.
10 December 2012, 101212, electricity, gas, power usage decrease, power usage increase
Q. And as far as you know, over the last few years, has your gas and/or electricity usage increased, decreased or stayed much the same?
| Total increased |
54% |
| Total decreased |
16% |
| Increased a lot |
24% |
| Increased a moderate amount |
15% |
| Increased a little |
15% |
| Stayed about the same |
26% |
| Decreased a little |
11% |
| Decreased a moderate amount |
3% |
| Decreased a lot |
2% |
| Don’t know |
4% |
54% say their power usage has increased over the last few years, 16% say it has decreased and 26% think it has stayed much the same.
Change in usage was similar across all ages except the 65+ group where 39% thought their usage had increased, 22% decreased and 38% stayed much the same.
Among Greens voters, 42% said their usage had increased, 24% decreased and 30% stayed much the same. There were no substantial differences across income groups.
56% of those with air conditioning or evaporative cooling said their power usage had increased compared with 45% of those without air conditioning or evaporative cooling.
10 December 2012, 101212, Federal Government, power companies, responsibility for power price, state government
Q. Who do you think is mainly responsible for electricity and gas prices?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| The Federal Government |
27% |
17% |
40% |
15% |
| The State Government |
16% |
18% |
14% |
18% |
| The power companies |
45% |
54% |
37% |
56% |
| Don’t know |
13% |
11% |
9% |
11% |
45% believe that power companies are mainly responsible for electricity and gas prices, 27% think the Federal Government is mainly responsible and 16% State Governments.
40% of Liberal/National voters think the Federal Government is mainly responsible. Answers were similar across the major states – NSW, Victoria, Queensland.
10 December 2012, 101212, electricity, low cost, operate by government, power generation, private companies, secure energy
Q. Which is closer to your view?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Power generation and distribution should be operated by private companies, because they are more efficient and competition will keep prices down |
24% |
20% |
31% |
9% |
| Power generation and distribution should be operated by government, because it is not motivated by profit and will keep our energy supply secure |
56% |
66% |
52% |
68% |
| Don’t know |
19% |
13% |
17% |
23% |
56% agree that power generation and distribution should be operated by government and 24% think they should be operated by private companies.
Liberal/National voters (31%) were most likely to support operation by private companies while highest support for Government operation came from Labor voters (66%), Greens voters (68%) and respondents aged 45+ (63%).