Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,888 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 12/11/12 |
2 weeks ago 26/11/12 |
Last week 3/12/12 |
This week 10/12/12 |
| Liberal |
|
42% |
44% |
44% |
45% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
45% |
47% |
47% |
48% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
37% |
36% |
37% |
36% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
10% |
9% |
8% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
8% |
8% |
7% |
8% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
52% |
53% |
53% |
54% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
48% |
47% |
47% |
46% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
Approval of Julia Gillard
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
|
|
19 |
20 Dec |
14 Mar |
14 June |
12 Sept |
12 Dec |
12 Mar 12 |
12 Jun |
10 Sept |
15 Oct |
12 Nov |
10 Dec |
| Total approve |
52% |
43% |
41% |
34% |
28% |
34% |
32% |
32% |
35% |
41% |
41% |
37% |
| Total disapprove |
30% |
40% |
46% |
54% |
64% |
54% |
61% |
56% |
54% |
51% |
49% |
53% |
| Strongly approve |
11% |
10% |
7% |
6% |
5% |
6% |
8% |
6% |
7% |
9% |
7% |
10% |
| Approve |
41% |
33% |
34% |
28% |
23% |
28% |
24% |
26% |
28% |
32% |
34% |
27% |
| Disapprove |
17% |
24% |
22% |
29% |
28% |
25% |
29% |
22% |
27% |
24% |
25% |
25% |
| Strongly disapprove |
13% |
16% |
24% |
25% |
36% |
29% |
32% |
34% |
27% |
27% |
24% |
28% |
| Don’t know |
18% |
17% |
13% |
13% |
8% |
11% |
7% |
12% |
11% |
8% |
10% |
11% |
37% (down 4%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 53% (up 4%) disapprove – an 8-point change in net rating from -8 to -16.
82% of Labor voters approve (down 3%) and 13% disapprove (up 5%).
By gender – men 36% approve/57% disapprove, women 38% approve/48% disapprove. In net terms this represents a shift with men from -16 to -21 and with women from 0 to -10.
Approval of Tony Abbott
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
|
18 Jan |
5 |
20 Dec |
14 Mar |
14 Jun |
12 Sep |
12 Dec |
12 Mar 12 |
12 Jun |
10 Sept |
15 Oct |
12 Nov |
10 Dec |
|
| Total approve |
37% |
37% |
39% |
38% |
38% |
39% |
32% |
36% |
32% |
32% |
37% |
33% |
33% |
| Total disapprove |
37% |
47% |
39% |
47% |
48% |
50% |
53% |
52% |
54% |
55% |
54% |
58% |
56% |
| Strongly approve |
5% |
8% |
9% |
7% |
6% |
8% |
6% |
7% |
6% |
6% |
9% |
6% |
8% |
| Approve |
32% |
29% |
30% |
31% |
32% |
31% |
26% |
29% |
26% |
26% |
28% |
27% |
25% |
| Disapprove |
20% |
23% |
21% |
24% |
25% |
23% |
25% |
23% |
24% |
26% |
23% |
28% |
25% |
| Strongly disapprove |
17% |
24% |
18% |
23% |
23% |
27% |
28% |
29% |
30% |
29% |
31% |
30% |
31% |
| Don’t know |
26% |
16% |
22% |
16% |
15% |
11% |
14% |
12% |
13% |
13% |
9% |
10% |
12% |
33% (no change) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 56% (down 2%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -25 to -23 over the last 4 weeks.
63% (down 2%) of Coalition voters approve and 30% (up 1%) disapprove.
By gender – men 37% approve/55% disapprove, women 28% approve/56% disapprove. In net terms this represents a small improvement with men from -20 to -18 and with women from -30 to -28.
Better Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
|
5 |
14 Mar 11 |
14 June |
12 Sept |
12 Dec |
12 Mar 12 |
12 Jun |
10 Sept |
15 Oct |
12 Nov |
10 Dec |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Julia Gillard |
53% |
44% |
41% |
36% |
39% |
40% |
37% |
40% |
43% |
45% |
43% |
92% |
6% |
80% |
| Tony Abbott |
26% |
33% |
36% |
40% |
35% |
37% |
37% |
37% |
36% |
32% |
34% |
4% |
71% |
1% |
| Don’t know |
21% |
23% |
24% |
24% |
26% |
23% |
26% |
24% |
20% |
23% |
23% |
5% |
23% |
19% |
43% (down 2%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 34% (up 2%) prefer Tony Abbott.
Men prefer Julia Gillard 40%/39% and women prefer Julia Gillard 46%/29%. Compared to last month’s figures, Julia Gillard’s margin over Tony Abbott has dropped 3 points among men (from 40%/36%) and 4 points among women (from 49%/28%).
Change in gas/electricity costs
Q. Over the last few years, have your gas and/or electricity costs increased, decreased or stayed much the same?
| Total increased |
86% |
| Total decreased |
2% |
| Increased a lot |
45% |
| Increased a moderate amount |
26% |
| Increased a little |
15% |
| Stayed about the same |
8% |
| Decreased a little |
1% |
| Decreased a moderate amount |
* |
| Decreased a lot |
1% |
| Don’t know |
5% |
86% say their power costs have increased over the last few years including 45% who say their costs have increased a lot.
Those most likely to say their power costs have increased a lot were aged 45-54 (59%) and Liberal/National voters (50%).
There were no substantial differences across income groups.
88% of those with air conditioning or evaporative cooling said their power costs had increased including 47% who said they have increased a lot.
In comparison, 79% of those without air conditioning or evaporative cooling said their power costs had increased including 40% who said they have increased a lot.
Change in gas/electricity usage
Q. And as far as you know, over the last few years, has your gas and/or electricity usage increased, decreased or stayed much the same?
| Total increased |
54% |
| Total decreased |
16% |
| Increased a lot |
24% |
| Increased a moderate amount |
15% |
| Increased a little |
15% |
| Stayed about the same |
26% |
| Decreased a little |
11% |
| Decreased a moderate amount |
3% |
| Decreased a lot |
2% |
| Don’t know |
4% |
54% say their power usage has increased over the last few years, 16% say it has decreased and 26% think it has stayed much the same.
Change in usage was similar across all ages except the 65+ group where 39% thought their usage had increased, 22% decreased and 38% stayed much the same.
Among Greens voters, 42% said their usage had increased, 24% decreased and 30% stayed much the same. There were no substantial differences across income groups.
56% of those with air conditioning or evaporative cooling said their power usage had increased compared with 45% of those without air conditioning or evaporative cooling.
Responsibility for gas/electricity prices
Q. Who do you think is mainly responsible for electricity and gas prices?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| The Federal Government |
27% |
17% |
40% |
15% |
| The State Government |
16% |
18% |
14% |
18% |
| The power companies |
45% |
54% |
37% |
56% |
| Don’t know |
13% |
11% |
9% |
11% |
45% believe that power companies are mainly responsible for electricity and gas prices, 27% think the Federal Government is mainly responsible and 16% State Governments.
40% of Liberal/National voters think the Federal Government is mainly responsible. Answers were similar across the major states – NSW, Victoria, Queensland.
Operation of power generation and distribution
Q. Which is closer to your view?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Power generation and distribution should be operated by private companies, because they are more efficient and competition will keep prices down |
24% |
20% |
31% |
9% |
| Power generation and distribution should be operated by government, because it is not motivated by profit and will keep our energy supply secure |
56% |
66% |
52% |
68% |
| Don’t know |
19% |
13% |
17% |
23% |
56% agree that power generation and distribution should be operated by government and 24% think they should be operated by private companies.
Liberal/National voters (31%) were most likely to support operation by private companies while highest support for Government operation came from Labor voters (66%), Greens voters (68%) and respondents aged 45+ (63%).
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 14 May 2019
In this week's report:
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