Federal politics – voting intention

Mar 4, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,894 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

5/2/13

2 weeks ago

18/2/13

Last week

25/2/13

This week

4/3/13

Liberal

45%

44%

46%

46%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

48%

47%

49%

49%

Labor

38.0%

34%

35%

34%

32%

Greens

11.8%

10%

9%

9%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

8%

8%

8%

8%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

 

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

54%

54%

56%

56%

Labor

50.1%

46%

46%

44%

44%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Greens agreement with Labor Government

Mar 4, 2013

Q. The Greens have announced an end to their formal arrangement to support Labor in Government. Do you think this decision is good or bad for the Greens and the Labor Party?

 

Total good

Total bad

Very good

Good

Neither good nor bad

Bad

Very bad

Don’t know

The Greens

33%

26%

12%

21%

27%

14%

12%

14%

The Labor Party

26%

40%

11%

15%

21%

22%

18%

13%

 

 

Total

Labor voters

Lib/Nat voters

Greens voters

 

Total good

Total bad

Total good

Total bad

Total good

Total bad

Total good

Total bad

The Greens

33%

26%

17%

40%

42%

22%

50%

14%

The Labor Party

26%

40%

43%

27%

20%

49%

16%

58%

33% think that the Greens decision to end to their formal arrangement to support Labor in Government is good for the Greens and 26% think it is bad.

26% think it is good for the Labor Party and 40% think it is bad.

50% of Greens voters think it is good for the Greens and 14% think it is bad.

43% of Labor voters think it is good for the Labor Party and 27% think it is bad.

Among Liberal/National voters, 42% think it is good (and 22% bad) for the Greens while 49% think it is bad (and 20% good) for the Labor Party.

Approval of Christine Milne

Mar 4, 2013

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Christine Milne is doing as leader of the Greens?

 

7 Nov 12

Total

4 Mar 13

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total approve

20%

22%

26%

16%

67%

Total disapprove

33%

29%

25%

41%

6%

Strongly approve

2%

3%

4%

1%

16%

Approve

18%

19%

22%

15%

51%

Disapprove

18%

14%

14%

18%

4%

Strongly disapprove

15%

15%

11%

23%

2%

Don’t know

47%

48%

50%

44%

27%

22% approve of the job Christine Milne is doing as leader of the Greens and 29% disapprove – nearly half could not give an opinion. This is an improvement since November – from net -13 to -7.

Among Greens voters 67% (down 4%) approve and 6% (up 1%) disapprove.

Performance of the Greens

Mar 4, 2013

Q. Do you think the performance of the Greens in Federal Parliament has been good or poor?

 

16 Jul 12

7 Nov 12

Total

4 Mar 13

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total good

17%

16%

17%

21%

8%

62%

Total poor

47%

40%

41%

36%

55%

6%

Very good

3%

3%

3%

2%

1%

12%

Good

14%

13%

14%

19%

7%

50%

Neither good nor poor

27%

25%

24%

28%

23%

24%

Poor

19%

18%

18%

23%

20%

6%

Very poor

28%

22%

23%

13%

35%

Don’t know

10%

19%

18%

15%

13%

8%

17% think the performance of The Greens in Federal Parliament has been good or very good and 41% think it has been poor or very poor. These results are very similar to those of November when this question was last asked.

36% (up 9%) of Labor voters think the Greens’ performance has been poor/very poor and 28% (down 4%) neither good nor poor – only 21% (down 1%) think it has been good/very good. 55% (down 6%) of Liberal/National voters think it has been poor/very poor and 62% (down 3%) of Greens voters think it has been good/very good.

Among respondents aged under 35, 22% think The Greens’ performance has been good/very good and 27% think it has been poor/very poor.

Greens policies

Mar 4, 2013

Q. Do you think that The Greens’ policies are too extreme or do they represent the views of many voters?

 

16 Jul 12

7 Nov 12

Total

4 Mar 13

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Too extreme

53%

47%

52%

48%

68%

7%

Represent the views of many voters

26%

25%

24%

29%

13%

79%

Don’t know

21%

28%

24%

23%

19%

15%

52% think The Greens’ policies are too extreme and 24% think they represent the views of many voters. Since this question was last asked in November, the percentage thinking they are extreme has increased 5%. This increase is mainly due to more Labor voters thinking the Greens are too extreme, which has increased from 38% to 48%

Those most likely to think The Greens’ policies are too extreme were men (61%), aged 55+ (67%) and Liberal/National voters (68%).

Firmness of vote

Mar 4, 2013

Q. Thinking about the Federal election to be held on September 14, which of the following statements best describes you how you will vote?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

I have firmly made up my mind

46%

52%

58%

38%

I am leaning in one direction, but it could change

31%

37%

30%

45%

I haven’t made up my mind

16%

9%

7%

16%

Don’t know

6%

3%

4%

1%

46% of respondents said they had firmly made up their mind about how they will vote in the September election. 31% say they are leaning in one direction but could change and 22% haven’t made up their mind or don’t know.

58% of those indicating they would currently vote Liberal/National said they had firmly made up their mind compared to 52% of current Labor voters and only 38% of current Greens voters.

65% of those aged 55+ said they had firmly made up their mind compared to 35% of those aged under 35.

Mining tax

Mar 4, 2013

Q. The Minerals Resource Rent tax (Mining tax) raised $126 million from the three biggest mining companies in its first six months of operation. Which is closer to your view?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

The mining tax should be dumped

28%

9%

49%

5%

The mining tax should be amended to raise more money

29%

43%

18%

49%

The mining tax should be maintained in its current form

21%

34%

12%

30%

Don’t know

21%

14%

21%

15%

Views about what to do with the mining tax were mixed. 29% think it should be amended to raise more money, 21% think it should be maintained in its current form and 28% think it should be dumped.

43% of Labor voters and 49% of Greens voters think it should be amended to raise more money while 49% of Liberal/National voters think it should be dumped. Queensland respondents were more likely to think it should be dumped (35%) while Victorian respondents favoured amending it to raise more money (35%).

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