climate change, Copenhagen, EMC, Essential Media, Essential Report, ETS, global warming, Greens, Labor, Liberals, peter lewis, scepticism, The Drum
First Published on The Drum 07/12/2010
It was a year ago today that the hottest gig in global warming opened in Copenhagen, amidst expectations that the world’s leaders would rise above their geographical interests and make a stand for the future.
Twelve months on and the hopes of Copenhagen seem as retro as a Midnight Oil album, the world has opted to sleep even when our beds are burning.
While the lack of political action over the past year has been well documented, this week’s Essential Report picks up another dynamic that is both a response to and a driver for this inertia. For the first time, we have found less than 50 per cent of Australians think climate change is real.
| Dec 10 | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Climate change is happening and is caused by human activity | 45% | 53% | 32% | 76% |
| We are just witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate | 36% | 27% | 53% | 14% |
| Don’t know | 19% | 20% | 15% | 10% |
2PP, EMC, ER, Essential Report, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,896
| First preference/leaning to | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 38% | 42% | 42% | 41% | 42% |
| National | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| Total Lib/Nat | 40% | 46% | 45% | 44% | 45% |
| Labor | 37% | 39% | 38% | 38% | 38% |
| Greens | 12% | 8% | 10% | 11% | 11% |
| Other/Independent | 10% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 6% |
| 2PP | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week
|
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 48% | 51% | 51% | 51% | 51% |
| Labor | 52% | 49% | 49% | 49% | 49% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
climate change, Earth's climate, EMC, ER, Essential Report, Greens, human activity, Labor, Liberals, normal fluctuation
Q. Do you agree that there is fairly conclusive evidence that climate change is happening and caused by human activity or do you believe that the evidence is still not in and we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the Earth’s climate which happens from time to time?ear
| Dec 10 | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Nov 09 | ||
| Climate change is happening and is caused by human activity | 45% | 53% | 32% | 76% | 53% | |
| We are just witnessing a normal fluctuation in the Earth’s climate | 36% | 27% | 53% | 14% | 34% | |
| Don’t know | 19% | 20% | 15% | 10% | 13% |
45% believe that climate change is happening and is caused by human activity (down 8% since last surveyed in Nov 2009), 36% think we are just witnessing a normal fluctuation in the Earth’s climate (up 2%) and 19% don’t know (up 6%).
Those most likely to think climate change is happening and is caused by human activity were Greens voters (76%), Labor voters (53%), women (49%) and aged 18-35 (50%).
Those most likely to think it is a normal fluctuation in the Earth’s climate were Liberal/National voters (53%), aged 55+ (47%) and men (40%).
climate change, EMC, ER, Essential Report, Greens, Labor, Liberals, tackling climate change
Q. Compared to other issues that are often raised in politics – like the economy, healthcare, immigration, etc – how important to you personally is the issue of tackling climate change?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total important | 61% | 73% | 50% | 87% |
| Total not important | 35% | 25% | 47% | 12% |
| Very important | 24% | 31% | 15% | 55% |
| Quite important | 37% | 42% | 35% | 32% |
| Not so important | 26% | 18% | 35% | 11% |
| Not at all important | 9% | 7% | 12% | 1% |
| Don’t know | 4% | 3% | 3% | – |
61% think tackling climate change is a very important (24%) or quite important (37%) issue – 35% think it is not important. 73% of Labor voters and 87% of Greens voters think it is important while Liberal/National voters are split (50% important/47% not important).
Those most likely to think it is important were women (65%) and aged 18-35 (68%).
Of those who believe that climate change is happening and is caused by human activity, 47% think it is a very important issue and 46% a quite important issue.
Bob Brown, climate change, EMC, ER, Essential Report, Greens, Julia Gillard, Labor, Liberals, tony abbott
Q. Which leader and party would you trust most to understand and deal with the climate change issue?
| Dec 10 | Dec 09 * | |
| Julia Gillard and Labor | 23% | 24% |
| Tony Abbott and the Coalition | 29% | 27% |
| Bob Brown and Greens | 19% | 17% |
| Don’t know | 29% | 32% |
* Note : Similar but not identical question asked in 2009.
29% trust Tony Abbott and the Coalition most to understand and deal with the climate change issue, 23% trust Julia Gillard and Labor and 19% trust Bob Brown and the Greens.
These figures are little changed since this question was previously asked in December 2009.
58% of Labor voters trust Labor most, 65% of Coalition voters trust the Liberals and 83% of Greens voters trust the Greens.
Of those who believe that climate change is happening and is caused by human activity, 31% trust the Greens, 27% Labor and 15% the Liberals.
Of those who believe that climate change is a very important issue, 38% trust the Greens, 31% Labor and 10% the Liberals.
Christmas, EMC, Essential Report, Greens, Labor, Liberal, nation-building, National Broadband Network, NBN, NBN rollout, peter lewis, technology
First Published on The Drum 30/11/2010
The magic of Christmas lies in the expectation. You hang out the stocking, leave a piece of cake and a stubbie for Santa and head off to bed.
When you wake up, there it is laid out for you, something shiny and new that you really, really wanted.
In this spirit it should come as no surprise that the Federal Parliament’s final act of the year was the passage of legislation enabling the rollout of the National Broadband Network, the embodiment of Labor’s hope that something better lies around the corner.
And there are grounds for optimism. In an era of cynicism with nearly every aspect of politics – and despite a concerted Opposition attack – this week’s Essential Report shows strong and increasing support for the network.
2PP, EMC, ER, Essential Report, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,858
| First preference/leaning to | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 39% | 41% | 42% | 42% | 41% |
| National | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| Total Lib/Nat | 41% | 44% | 45% | 45% | 44% |
| Labor | 39% | 41% | 39% | 38% | 38% |
| Greens | 9% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 11% |
| Other/Independent | 10% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 7% |
| 2PP | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week
|
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49% | 50% | 51% | 51% | 51% |
| Labor | 51% | 50% | 49% | 49% | 49% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
EMC, ER, Essential Report, Greens, Labor, Liberal, same sex marriage
Q. Do you think people of the same sex should or should not be allowed to marry?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Should be allowed to marry | 50% | 60% | 38% | 82% |
| Should not be allowed to marry | 37% | 28% | 50% | 13% |
| Don’t know | 13% | 12% | 12% | 4% |
50% think people of the same sex be allowed to marry and 37% think they should not be allowed to marry.
Strongest support for same sex marriage is shown by Greens voters (82%), Labor voters (60%), females (63%) and those aged 25-44 (61%).
50% of Coalition voters and 68% of those aged 65+ oppose same sex marriage.
By religion, Catholics (58%) and those with no religion (63%) are more likely to support same sex marriage. Anglicans are divided (47% support, 43% oppose) and other Christians are strongly opposed (68%).
Of those who think the issue is important, 60% think same sex marriage should be allowed and 37% think it should not be allowed.