TRENDS: Half Yearly Report Card
EMC Director Peter Lewis runs the ruler over the first six months of polling and comes out wondering where all the bad vibes are coming from. When politics is toxic, he argues, the progressive side of politics loses.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,830 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 14/5/12 |
2 weeks ago 28/5/12 |
Last week 4/6/12 |
This week 12/6/12 |
| Liberal |
|
47% |
47% |
47% |
46% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
50% |
50% |
50% |
49% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
30% |
33% |
33% |
32% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
11% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
7% |
7% |
9% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
57% |
57% |
56% |
56% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
43% |
43% |
44% |
44% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.
Approval of Julia Gillard
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
|
|
19 Jul 2010 |
20 Dec 2010 |
14 Mar 2011 |
14 June |
12 Sept |
12 Dec |
16 Jan 2012 |
13 Feb |
12 Mar |
16 Apr |
14 May |
12 Jun |
| Total approve |
52% |
43% |
41% |
34% |
28% |
34% |
37% |
36% |
32% |
32% |
31% |
32% |
| Total disapprove |
30% |
40% |
46% |
54% |
64% |
54% |
52% |
53% |
61% |
58% |
60% |
56% |
| Strongly approve |
11% |
10% |
7% |
6% |
5% |
6% |
6% |
6% |
8% |
7% |
5% |
6% |
| Approve |
41% |
33% |
34% |
28% |
23% |
28% |
31% |
30% |
24% |
25% |
26% |
26% |
| Disapprove |
17% |
24% |
22% |
29% |
28% |
25% |
27% |
26% |
29% |
31% |
26% |
22% |
| Strongly disapprove |
13% |
16% |
24% |
25% |
36% |
29% |
25% |
27% |
32% |
27% |
34% |
34% |
| Don’t know |
18% |
17% |
13% |
13% |
8% |
11% |
12% |
11% |
7% |
10% |
10% |
12% |
Julia Gillard’s approval rating has improved a little since last month. 32% (up 1%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 56% (down 4%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -29 to -24 over the last 4 weeks.
74% of Labor voters approve (up 5%) and 16% disapprove (down 8%).
By gender – men 32% approve/57% disapprove, women 32% approve/54% disapprove.
Approval of Tony Abbott
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
|
18 Jan 2010 |
5 Jul 2010 |
20 Dec 2010 |
14 Mar 2011 |
14 June |
12 Sept |
12 Dec |
16 Jan 2012 |
13 Feb |
12 Mar |
16 Apr |
14 May |
12 Jun |
|
| Total approve |
37% |
37% |
39% |
38% |
38% |
39% |
32% |
35% |
35% |
36% |
38% |
36% |
32% |
| Total disapprove |
37% |
47% |
39% |
47% |
48% |
50% |
53% |
51% |
53% |
52% |
50% |
53% |
54% |
| Strongly approve |
5% |
8% |
9% |
7% |
6% |
8% |
6% |
7% |
6% |
7% |
7% |
7% |
6% |
| Approve |
32% |
29% |
30% |
31% |
32% |
31% |
26% |
28% |
29% |
29% |
31% |
29% |
26% |
| Disapprove |
20% |
23% |
21% |
24% |
25% |
23% |
25% |
25% |
23% |
23% |
23% |
24% |
24% |
| Strongly disapprove |
17% |
24% |
18% |
23% |
23% |
27% |
28% |
26% |
30% |
29% |
27% |
29% |
30% |
| Don’t know |
26% |
16% |
22% |
16% |
15% |
11% |
14% |
13% |
12% |
12% |
13% |
11% |
13% |
Tony Abbott’s approval rating has declined a little over the last month. 32% (down 4%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 54% (up 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -17 to -22 over the last 4 weeks.
67% (down 4%) of Coalition voters approve and 22% (up 3%) disapprove.
By gender – men 35% approve/56% disapprove, women 30% approve/52% disapprove.
Better Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
|
5 Jul 2010 |
14 Mar 2011 |
14 June |
12 Sept |
12 Dec |
16 Jan 2012 |
13 Feb |
12 Mar |
16 Apr |
14 May |
12 Jun |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Julia Gillard |
53% |
44% |
41% |
36% |
39% |
39% |
41% |
40% |
38% |
38% |
37% |
83% |
4% |
66% |
| Tony Abbott |
26% |
33% |
36% |
40% |
35% |
36% |
34% |
37% |
36% |
37% |
37% |
3% |
78% |
4% |
| Don’t know |
21% |
23% |
24% |
24% |
26% |
25% |
25% |
23% |
25% |
24% |
26% |
14% |
18% |
30% |
37% (down 1%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 37% (no change) prefer Tony Abbott.
Men prefer Tony Abbott 38%/35% and women prefer Julia Gillard 39%/35%.
Approval of Overseas Workers
Q. The Federal Government recently gave approval to Gina Rinehart’s mining company to bring in 1,700 overseas workers. Do you approve or disapprove of overseas workers being brought in to work in Australia’s mining industry?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total approve |
16% |
20% |
19% |
10% |
| Total disapprove |
60% |
55% |
61% |
58% |
| Strongly approve |
3% |
3% |
3% |
5% |
| Approve |
13% |
17% |
16% |
5% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove |
20% |
23% |
18% |
30% |
| Disapprove |
25% |
27% |
25% |
30% |
| Strongly disapprove |
35% |
28% |
36% |
28% |
| Don’t know |
5% |
3% |
2% |
2% |
16% approve of the Government’s approval for Gina Rinehart’s mining company to bring in 1,700 overseas workers and 60% disapprove.
A majority of all voter groups disapproved.
Highest approval came from men (20%), full-time workers (20%) and respondents aged 65+ (21%).
Reason for Bringing in Overseas Workers
Q. Why do you think mining companies would bring in overseas workers for Australia’s mines?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Australia doesn’t have enough skilled workers |
18% |
20% |
18% |
19% |
| Australians don’t want to work in the mining industry |
17% |
17% |
18% |
18% |
| It is cheaper to bring in overseas workers |
59% |
60% |
58% |
58% |
| Don’t know |
6% |
3% |
5% |
5% |
59% think that mining companies bring in overseas workers because it is cheaper, 18% think Australia doesn’t have enough skilled workers and 17% think Australians don’t want to work in the mining industry.
Views were similar across all voter and demographic groups.
Mining Investment
Q. Which of the following statements is closest to your view?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Labour costs and taxes threaten the future of mining investment in Australia |
32% |
19% |
47% |
16% |
| Mining companies want Australian resources and they will continue to invest here despite labour costs and taxes |
49% |
62% |
39% |
69% |
| Don’t know |
20% |
19% |
14% |
15% |
49% agree with the statement that mining companies want Australian resources and they will continue to invest here despite labour costs and taxes and 32% agree that labour costs and taxes threaten the future of mining investment in Australia.
Those most likely to agree that labour costs and taxes threaten the future of mining investment in Australia were Liberal/National voters (47%) and residents of Queensland (41%).
Mabo Decision
Q. This year is the 20th anniversary of the High Court’s “Mabo” decision which established land rights for Australia’s indigenous people.
Do you think this decision has been good or bad for the following -
|
Total good |
Total bad |
Very good |
Good |
Made no difference |
Bad |
Very bad |
Don’t know |
|
| Aboriginal people |
65% |
4% |
27% |
38% |
19% |
3% |
1% |
11% |
| Farmers |
15% |
35% |
4% |
11% |
32% |
28% |
7% |
17% |
| Miners |
13% |
35% |
3% |
10% |
35% |
26% |
9% |
17% |
| Regional communities |
30% |
23% |
6% |
24% |
32% |
17% |
6% |
15% |
| All Australians |
33% |
22% |
10% |
23% |
30% |
16% |
6% |
14% |
Two thirds (65%) believe that the “Mabo” decision has been good for aboriginal people and only 4% think it has been bad. A majority of all voter groups think it has been good for aboriginal people – 80% of Greens voters, 72% of Labor voters and 63% of Liberal/National voters.
Respondents were also more likely to think the decision was good for regional communities (30% good/23% bad) and all Australian (33%/22%).
35% think it has been bad for farmers and miners. However, 47% think it has been good or made no difference for farmers and 48% think it has been good or made no difference for miners.
Liberal/National voters were more inclined to think it was bad for all groups other than aboriginal people. For all Australians, 62% of Greens voters, 44% of Labor voters and 25% of Liberal/National voters think it has been good.
Republic
Q. Are you in favour or against Australia becoming a republic?
|
Jan 2010 |
March 2011 |
Oct 2011 |
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| In favour |
41% |
39% |
41% |
39% |
56% |
27% |
54% |
| Against |
32% |
34% |
33% |
35% |
22% |
51% |
21% |
| No opinion |
27% |
27% |
26% |
27% |
22% |
22% |
25% |
39% favour Australia becoming a republic and 35% are against – showing only a little change since this question was asked in October 2011 (from net +8 to net +4 in favour). 27% have no opinion.
Those most in favour were respondents aged 45-64 (45%), people earning $1,600+pw (45%), Labor voters (56%) and Greens voters (54%).
Those most against were aged 65+ (58%) and Liberal/National voters (51%).
36% of respondents aged under 35 had no opinion.
Will Australia ever become a Republic?
Q. Do you think that Australia is likely or unlikely to ever become a republic?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total likely |
52% |
65% |
48% |
57% |
| Total unlikely |
34% |
26% |
38% |
32% |
| Very likely |
12% |
16% |
9% |
16% |
| Somewhat likely |
40% |
49% |
39% |
41% |
| Somewhat unlikely |
25% |
21% |
26% |
28% |
| Very unlikely |
9% |
5% |
12% |
4% |
| Don’t know |
15% |
9% |
13% |
11% |
52% think that it is very or somewhat likely that Australia will ever become a republic – and 34% think it is somewhat or very unlikely.
For people aged 45+, 61%+ think it is likely and 29% unlikely while for those aged under 35, 42% think it is likely and 40% unlikely.
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 20 May 2013
In this week's report:
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Essential Report with EMC’s Peter Lewis and Jackie Woods
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-
Ships, trains and submarines — can we build them here?
Comments11 Sep 2012Tim Ayres wishes Clive Palmer and other mining giants would give local manufacturers a go instead of heading overseas.
-
Do we undervalue our public sector innovations?
Comments11 Sep 2012Nadine Flood questions whether governments take our science and other publicly funded breakthroughs for granted.
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