Essential Report

Better Prime Minister

Aug 15, 2011

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

5 Jul 2010 17 Jan 2011 14 Feb 14 Mar 11 Apr 9 May 14 June 11 July 15 Aug Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Julia Gillard 53% 47% 48% 44% 42% 43% 41% 37% 38% 82% 7% 73%
Tony Abbott 26% 32% 31% 33% 33% 35% 36% 39% 36% 1% 73% 7%
Don’t know 21% 21% 20% 23% 24% 22% 24% 24% 26% 17% 20% 20%

38% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 36% prefer Tony Abbott – a net improvement for Julia Gillard of 4% on last month’s figures (from -2% to +2%).

Men prefer Tony Abbott 41%/35% and women favour Julia Gillard 40%/32%.

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Preferred Leader of the Labor Party

Aug 3, 2011

Q. If you were able to choose any politician to be leader of the Labor Party, which of the following would you prefer? (This question was commissioned by Network Ten).

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Men Women Age

18-34

Aged

35-54

Aged 55+
Kevin Rudd 37% 43% 36% 35% 40% 33% 40% 39% 30%
Julia Gillard 12% 31% 2% 24% 10% 13% 12% 12% 12%
Malcolm Turnbull 11% 6% 17% 7% 12% 10% 10% 9% 15%
Stephen Smith 7% 6% 9% 2% 7% 6% 3% 6% 12%
Bob Brown 3% 2% 2% 11% 3% 3% 2% 3% 4%
Greg Combet 2% 2% 1% 2% 3% 2% 2% 1% 3%
Bill Shorten 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 2%
Don’t know 28% 9% 32% 18% 22% 33% 31% 28% 22%

37% of respondents prefer Kevin Rudd as leader of the Labor Party, 12% prefer Julia Gillard and 11% Malcolm Turnbull.

Among Labor voters, 43% prefer Kevin Rudd and 31% Julia Gillard.

Kevin Rudd is more preferred by younger respondents while those aged 55+ were more likely than the average to prefer Malcolm Turnbull (15%) and Stephen Smith (12%).

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Better Prime Minister

Jul 11, 2011

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

5 Jul 2010 17 Jan 2011 14 Feb 14 Mar 11 Apr 9 May 14 June 11 July Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott

21 Jun 10

Julia Gillard 53% 47% 48% 44% 42% 43% 41% 37% 85% 6% 68% 47%
Tony Abbott 26% 32% 31% 33% 33% 35% 36% 39% 5% 75% 9% 30%
Don’t know 21% 21% 20% 23% 24% 22% 24% 24% 10% 19% 24% 23%

37% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 39% prefer Tony Abbott – the first time that Tony Abbott has been preferred over Julia Gillard – a net decrease for Julia Gillard of 7% on last month’s figures (from +5% to -2%).

Men prefer Tony Abbott 42%/36% and women favour Julia Gillard 38%/36%.

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Vote if Kevin Rudd Labor Leader

Jun 27, 2011

Q. If Kevin Rudd was the leader of the Labor Party (and Tony Abbott was leader of the Liberal Party), to which party will you probably give your first preference vote if a Federal Election was held today? If not sure, which party would you lean toward?

First preference Total Gave vote
Liberal 36% 39%
National 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 39% 42%
Labor 41% 45%
Greens 7% 8%
Other/Independent 5% 6%
Don’t know 8%

If Kevin Rudd was leader of the Labor Party (and Tony Abbott was leader of the Liberal Party) 45% said they would give their first preference vote to Labor (up 13%) and 42% to the Liberal or National Parties (down 6%). The Greens vote drops 3% to 8%.

In two party preferred terms, this equates to 53% Labor/47% Liberal/National – a swing of 8% to Labor.

Most of the increased Labor vote comes from Liberal/National voters  – 12% of Liberal/National voters said they would vote Labor if Kevin Rudd was leader.

Groups with the largest shifts to Labor were women, aged under 35, NSW and lower incomes.

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Vote if Malcolm Turnbull Liberal Leader

Jun 27, 2011

Q. If Malcolm Turnbull was the leader of the Liberal Party (and Julia Gillard was leader of the Labor Party), to which party will you probably give your first preference vote if a Federal Election was held today? If not sure, which party would you lean toward?

First preference Total Gave vote
Liberal 44% 49%
National 4% 4%
Total Lib/Nat 48% 53%
Labor 28% 31%
Greens 7% 8%
Other/Independent 7% 8%
Don’t know 10%

If Malcolm Turnbull was leader of the Liberal Party (and Julia Gillard was leader of the Labor Party) 31% said they would give their first preference vote to Labor (down 1%) and 53% to the Liberal or National Parties (up 5%). The Greens vote drops 3% to 8%.

In two party preferred terms, this equates to 41% Labor/59% Liberal/National – a swing of 4% to Liberal/National.

Most of the increased Liberal/National vote comes from Labor voters  – 13% of Labor voters said they would vote Liberal if Malcolm Turnbull was leader.

The group with the largest shift to Liberal/National was people on higher incomes.

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Better Prime Minister

Jun 14, 2011

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

5 Jul 2010 17 Jan 2011 14 Feb 14 Mar 11 Apr 9 May 14 June Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott

21 Jun 10

Julia Gillard 53% 47% 48% 44% 42% 43% 41% 84% 7% 65% 47%
Tony Abbott 26% 32% 31% 33% 33% 35% 36% 5% 73% 11% 30%
Don’t know 21% 21% 20% 23% 24% 22% 24% 11% 20% 24% 23%

41% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 36% prefer Tony Abbott – a net decrease for Julia Gillard of 3% on last month’s figures (from +8% to +5%).

Men are split 40%/40% and women favour Julia Gillard 41%/32%.

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Party trusted to handle important election issues

Jun 6, 2011

Q. And which party would you trust most to handle the following issues?

Labor Liberal Greens Don’t know
Management of the economy 29% 47% 3% 22%
Ensuring a quality education for all children 38% 35% 5% 23%
Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system 33% 35% 6% 25%
Protecting the environment 18% 21% 39% 23%
A fair industrial relations system 40% 31% 4% 24%
Political leadership 26% 38% 5% 31%
Addressing climate change 21% 24% 29% 26%
Controlling interest rates 26% 44% 3% 28%
Protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries 35% 35% 4% 26%
Ensuring a quality water supply 21% 28% 22% 29%
Housing affordability 26% 34% 4% 35%
Ensuring a fair taxation system 29% 37% 4% 30%
Security and the war on terrorism 25% 40% 3% 32%
Treatment of asylum seekers 19% 39% 11% 31%
Managing population growth 21% 36% 7% 36%

Labor is the most trusted party on only one issue – a fair industrial relations system. There is little difference between Labor and the Liberals for ensuring a quality education for all children, ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system and protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries.

This represents a weakening in Labor’s position over the last few months. In January Labor was trusted most to handle ensuring a quality education for all children and in October Labor also had a significant lead on protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries.

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Best Leader of the Labor Party

May 30, 2011

Q. Which of the following do you think would make the best leader of the Labor Party?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Julia Gillard 23% 51% 10% 26%
Kevin Rudd 32% 31% 31% 31%
Wayne Swan 2% 1% 3% 3%
Greg Combet 4% 5% 3% 6%
Bill Shorten 3% 3% 3% 4%
Someone else 19% 5% 31% 11%
Don’t know 17% 5% 18% 19%

32% think Kevin Rudd would make the best leader of the Labor Party and 23% prefer Julia Gillard. Julia Gillard is preferred by 51% of Labor voters compared to 31% for Kevin Rudd. Men prefer Kevin Rudd over Julia Gillard 34% to 21% and women by 30% to 25%.

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