economics, economy, EMC, ER, Essential Media, Essential Report, finances, Greens, Labor, Liberal, money, Nationals, Polling, polls, the economy
Q. Over the next 12 months do you think economic conditions in Australia will get better, get worse or stay much the same?
| 1 Dec 08 | 15 Jun 09 | 5 Oct 09 | 18 Jan 10 | 29 Mar 10 | 28 Jun 10 | 18 Oct 10 | 4 April 11 | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total better | 21% | 43% | 66% | 53% | 54% | 33% | 40% | 27% | 38% | 25% | 23% |
| Total worse | 61% | 37% | 15% | 19% | 19% | 31% | 30% | 37% | 26% | 48% | 33% |
| Get a lot better | 2% | 5% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 7% | 3% | 3% |
| Get a little better | 19% | 38% | 58% | 44% | 45% | 28% | 34% | 23% | 31% | 22% | 20% |
| Get a little worse | 45% | 28% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 23% | 20% | 27% | 22% | 33% | 27% |
| Get a lot worse | 16% | 9% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 4% | 15% | 6% |
| Stay much the same | 13% | 17% | 15% | 24% | 22% | 30% | 24% | 27% | 32% | 23% | 35% |
| No opinion | 5% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 8% | 4% | 5% | 8% |
Optimism about Australia’s economic outlook has declined substantially in the last 6 months. 27% think economic conditions in Australia will get better over the next 12 months and 37% think they will get worse – a net decline of 20% since this question was last asked in October. This is the most negative result recorded since December 2008.
Younger people are more optimistic than older people – of those aged under 35, 34% think conditions will get better and 27% worse.
38% of Labor voters think conditions will get better and 26% worse while 25% of Coalition voters think conditions will get better and 48% worse.
EMC, ER, Essential Media, Essential Report, finances, financial situation, Greens, Labor, Liberal, money, Nationals, Personal financial situation, Polling, polls
Q. Over the next 12 months do you think your personal financial situation will get better, get worse or stay much the same?
| 29 Mar 10 | 28 Jun 10 | 18 Oct 10 | 4 April 11 | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total better | 40% | 29% | 33% | 32% | 37% | 29% | 40% |
| Total worse | 23% | 31% | 29% | 31% | 28% | 35% | 21% |
| Get a lot better | 8% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% |
| Get a little better | 32% | 24% | 27% | 25% | 30% | 22% | 33% |
| Get a little worse | 17% | 21% | 21% | 22% | 21% | 24% | 16% |
| Get a lot worse | 6% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 11% | 5% |
| Stay much the same | 33% | 37% | 32% | 32% | 32% | 33% | 34% |
| No opinion | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 6% |
32% think their own personal financial situation will get better over the next 12 months and 31% worse – 32% think they will stay much the same.
This is a little less optimistic than the October result – a decrease from net +4% to +1%.
Among full-time workers, 40% think their situation will get better and 27% worse while those who are not working are more pessimistic – 25% better/32% worse/36% much the same.
For those aged 55+, 15% expect their financial situation to get better and 39% worse while for those aged under 35, 48% expect it to get better and 24% worse.
EMC, employment, ER, Essential Media, Essential Report, Greens, job loss, job security, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls
Q. How concerned are you that you or some member of your immediate family will lose their job in the next year or so: very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not at all concerned?
| 16 Feb 09 | 27 Apr 09 | 8 Jun 09 | 5 Oct 09 | 18 Jan 10 | 29 Mar 10 | 28 Jun 10 | 18 Oct 10 | 4 April 11 | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total concerned | 62% | 67% | 52% | 49% | 45% | 39% | 43% | 40% | 43% | 39% | 46% | 42% |
| Very concerned | 22% | 24% | 13% | 14% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 11% | 11% | 9% | 12% | 7% |
| Somewhat concerned | 40% | 43% | 39% | 35% | 33% | 29% | 34% | 29% | 32% | 30% | 34% | 35% |
| Not at all concerned | 29% | 23% | 35% | 40% | 40% | 45% | 38% | 42% | 43% | 43% | 44% | 53% |
| Don’t know | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 8% | 7% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 4% | 2% |
| No employees in the immediate family | 5% | 5% | 8% | 5% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 9% | 5% | 3% |
43% were concerned that they or some member of their immediate family will lose their job in the next year or so and 43% were not at all concerned – a net negative movement of 2% since the last survey in June.
Those on higher incomes (40% concerned/54% not concerned for incomes of $1,600+) were more optimistic than those on lower incomes (46% concerned/40% not concerned for incomes of $600-$1,000).
carbon pollution, carbon pricing scheme, Carbon Tax, Carbon Tax Compensation, EMC, ER, Essential Media, Essential Report, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls
Q. If the Government compensated households by cutting income tax and increasing welfare payments, would you be more likely or less likely to support the proposed carbon tax?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Men | Women | Age
18-34 |
Aged
35-54 |
Aged 55+ | |
| Total more likely | 38% | 58% | 26% | 49% | 37% | 40% | 43% | 38% | 34% |
| Total less likely | 16% | 10% | 23% | 14% | 20% | 12% | 16% | 16% | 15% |
| Much more likely | 14% | 26% | 7% | 20% | 15% | 14% | 16% | 15% | 12% |
| Somewhat more likely | 24% | 32% | 19% | 29% | 22% | 25% | 27% | 23% | 22% |
| Somewhat less likely | 5% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 7% | 3% | 6% | 6% | 4% |
| Much less likely | 11% | 4% | 17% | 10% | 13% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 11% |
| Makes no difference | 35% | 24% | 46% | 26% | 35% | 35% | 26% | 36% | 46% |
| Don’t know | 11% | 8% | 5% | 11% | 8% | 13% | 15% | 10% | 6% |
38% of respondents agreed they would be more likely to support the proposed carbon tax if the Government compensated households by cutting income tax and increasing welfare payments, 16% said they would be less likely to support it and 35% said it would make no difference.
Those most likely to support the tax were Labor voters (58%), Greens voters (49%) and younger respondents (43% of people aged 18-34). 46% of Coalition voters and 46% of those aged 55+ said it would make no difference to their view.
carbon pollution, Carbon Pricing, carbon pricing scheme, Carbon Tax, EMC, ER, Essential Media, Essential Report, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls
Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s recent announcement to introduce a carbon pricing scheme from 1 July 2012, which will require industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?
| 7 March | 14 March | Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total support | 35% | 38% | 34% | 63% | 14% | 56% |
| Total oppose | 48% | 49% | 51% | 23% | 80% | 24% |
| Strongly support | 9% | 12% | 12% | 22% | 4% | 29% |
| Support | 26% | 26% | 22% | 41% | 10% | 27% |
| Oppose | 19% | 17% | 19% | 12% | 24% | 13% |
| Strongly oppose | 29% | 32% | 32% | 11% | 56% | 11% |
| Don’t know | 18% | 13% | 15% | 14% | 7% | 19% |
Support for the Government’s carbon pricing scheme has fallen over the last 2 weeks. 34% now support the scheme and 51% are opposed.
Opinion has polarized among voters for the major parties. Support among Labor voters has increased from 55% to 63% while opposition from Coalition voters has increased from 73% to 80%. Support has fallen among Greens voters – 2 weeks ago they split 78% support/11% oppose compared to this week’s 56% support/24% oppose.
2PP, Election, EMC, ER, Essential Media, Essential Report, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, two party preferred, voting, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size =1,917
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 42% | 45% | 44% | 43% | |
| National | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6 | 45% | 47% | 46% | 46% |
| Labor | 38.0 | 37% | 35% | 36% | 37% |
| Greens | 11.8 | 11% | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6 | 7% | 8% | 8% | 7% |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 52% | 54% | 53% | 52% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 48% | 46% | 47% | 48% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
carbon compensation, carbon pollution, Carbon Tax, Compensation, EMC, ER, Essential Media, Essential Report, Federal Government, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, price increases
Q. The Federal Government says that the funds raised from the carbon tax will be used to compensate those affected by price increases. Which of the following forms of compensation do you favour?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| A direct payment to households | 39% | 44% | 37% | 50% |
| An income tax cut | 33% | 36% | 34% | 26% |
| A cut to the GST rate | 13% | 11% | 17% | 8% |
| Cuts to corporate taxes | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| Don’t know | 13% | 8% | 10% | 14% |
39% favour compensation as a direct payment to households and 33% favour income tax cuts. Greens voters (50%) and Labor voters (44%) are most likely to favour a direct payment while Coalition voters split 37% direct payment/34% tax cut.
Older people strongly favour a direct payment – among those aged 55+, 51% favour direct payment and 21% a tax cut, while for those aged 18-44, 39% favour a tax cut and 33% favour a direct payment.
Carbon Tax, early election, Election, EMC, ER, Essential Media, Essential Report, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls
Q. Do you think the Government should call an early election over the carbon tax?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Yes | 40% | 16% | 67% | 17% |
| No | 44% | 72% | 20% | 69% |
| Don’t know | 17% | 11% | 13% | 13% |
40% think that the Government should call an early election over the carbon tax and 44% think they should not. 67% of Coalition voters favour an early election while 72% of Labor voters and 69% of Greens voters do not.
Men favour an early election 47%/41% while women oppose 46%/33%.