bloke voters, Bradley Effect, EMC, Essential Media, Essential Report, female PM, Greens, Julia Gillard, Labor, Liberal, peter lewis, The Drum
First Published on The Drum 23/11/2010
As if dealing with four independent blokes, a Green bloke and a blokey bloke in charge of the Opposition is not enough, now Julia Gillard is developing a problem with blokes outside the Parliament.
Having politely indicated that they were happy with a female Prime Minister in the lead-up to the federal election, this week’s Essential Report picks up sharp moves in the attitudes of the brotherhood.
In the absence of any compelling policy development to explain the surge, we are left with the Bradley Effect, the theory created to explain why an African-American candidate lost the 1982 race for Governor of California despite having a massive lead in the polls.
The details of the Bradley Effect later, first some numbers from this week’s Essential Report.
ALP, EMC, essential report, Gillard approval, Julia Gillard, Labor, PM, Prime Minister
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
| Kevin Rudd | Julia Gillard | |||||||||
| 31 May | 5 Jul | 19 Jul | 26 Jul | 2 Aug | 9 Aug | 16 Aug | 20 Sep | 18 Oct | 22 Nov | |
| Total approve | 41% | 48% | 52% | 49% | 46% | 45% | 46% | 45% | 45% | 43% |
| Total disapprove | 47% | 27% | 30% | 33% | 38% | 40% | 40% | 37% | 37% | 38% |
| Strongly approve | 7% | 14% | 11% | 12% | 10% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 7% |
| Approve | 34% | 34% | 41% | 37% | 36% | 32% | 33% | 33% | 36% | 36% |
| Disapprove | 25% | 13% | 17% | 19% | 23% | 24% | 24% | 21% | 20% | 23% |
| Strongly disapprove | 22% | 14% | 13% | 14% | 15% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 17% | 15% |
| Don’t know | 12% | 26% | 18% | 17% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 19% | 18% | 18% |
43% (down 2%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 38% (up 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from +8 to +5.
87% of Labor voters approve and 4% disapprove.
By gender – men 39% approve/44% disapprove, women 47% approve/33% disapprove. Men have shifted from a net rating of +4 to -5 while women have changed from +10 to +14.
EMC, essential report, Greens, Julia Gillard, Labor, Liberal, PM, Prime Minister, tony abbott
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul 10 | 19 Jul 10 | 26 Jul 10 | 2 Aug 10 | 9 Aug 10 | 16 Aug 10 | 20 Sep 10 | 18 Oct 10 | 22 Nov 10 | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott
21 Jun 10 |
||
| Julia Gillard | 53% | 50% | 51% | 48% | 45% | 46% | 47% | 49% | 45% | 94% | 6% | 76% | 47% | |
| Tony Abbott | 26% | 27% | 26% | 30% | 33% | 35% | 35% | 33% | 34% | 1% | 78% | 3% | 30% | |
| Don’t know | 21% | 23% | 23% | 22% | 21% | 19% | 18% | 17% | 21% | 5% | 17% | 21% | 23% |
45% (down 4%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 34% (up 1%) prefer Tony Abbott – a closing of the gap from 16% to 11% since last month’s figures.
Men favour Julia Gillard over Tony Abbott 41%/40% and women 49%/28%.
ALP, asylum seekers, Chris Bowen, detention centres, EMC, Federal Labor Government, immigration, Immigration minister, Julia Gillard, Labor, peter lewis, The Drum
First Published on The Drum 26/10/2010
If political progressives want to stop the ALP from drifting to the Right, energetically backing the decision to move women and children out of immigration detention looks like a good place to start.
Prime Minister Julia Gillard and Immigration minister Chris Bowen took the new minority government’s first truly brave decision last week, yet all they got was a sullen acceptance from a Left still acting like jilted lovers after the disappointments of the election campaign.
afghanistan, Afghanistan involvement, Julia Gillard, Labor Party, Liberal Party, tony abbott, war in Afghanistan
Q. Which leader and party would you trust most to handle our involvement in the war in Afghanistan?
| Julia Gillard and the Labor Party | 33% |
| Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party | 32% |
| Bob Brown and the Greens | 7% |
| Don’t know | 28% |
Respondents were split over which leader and party they would trust most to handle our involvement in the war in Afghanistan. 33% prefer Julia Gillard and the Labor Party and 32% prefer Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party.
Those aged 55+ prefer the Liberal Party over the Labor Party 40% to 34%.
approval, Approval of Julia Gillard, approval of PM, Gillard, Julia Gillard
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
| Kevin Rudd | Julia Gillard | ||||||||
| 31 May | 5 Jul | 19 Jul | 26 Jul | 2 Aug | 9 Aug | 16 Aug | 20 Sep | 18 Oct | |
| Total approve | 41% | 48% | 52% | 49% | 46% | 45% | 46% | 45% | 45% |
| Total disapprove | 47% | 27% | 30% | 33% | 38% | 40% | 40% | 37% | 37% |
| Strongly approve | 7% | 14% | 11% | 12% | 10% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 10% |
| Approve | 34% | 34% | 41% | 37% | 36% | 32% | 33% | 33% | 36% |
| Disapprove | 25% | 13% | 17% | 19% | 23% | 24% | 24% | 21% | 20% |
| Strongly disapprove | 22% | 14% | 13% | 14% | 15% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 17% |
| Don’t know | 12% | 26% | 18% | 17% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 19% | 18% |
45% approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 37% disapprove – showing no change from last months ratings.
89% of Labor voters approve and 3% disapprove.
By gender – men 45% approve/41% disapprove, women 45% approve/35% disapprove. Comments »
Abbott, Gillard, Julia Gillard, preferred PM, tony abbott
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul 10 | 19 Jul 10 | 26 Jul 10 | 2 Aug 10 | 9 Aug 10 | 16 Aug 10 | 20 Sep 10 | 18 Oct 10 | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott21 Jun 10 | ||
| Julia Gillard | 53% | 50% | 51% | 48% | 45% | 46% | 47% | 49% | 92% | 9% | 81% | 47% | |
| Tony Abbott | 26% | 27% | 26% | 30% | 33% | 35% | 35% | 33% | 2% | 75% | 4% | 30% | |
| Don’t know | 21% | 23% | 23% | 22% | 21% | 19% | 18% | 17% | 6% | 16% | 15% | 23% |
49% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 33% prefer Tony Abbott – a widening of the gap from 12% to 16% since last month’s figures. This is the largest gap since the 2 August survey.
Men favour Julia Gillard over Tony Abbott 50%/34% and women 49%/33%. Comments »
EMC, Essential Report, government leaders, Julia Gillard, peter lewis, The Drum, tony abbott
First Published on The Drum 05/10/2010
New paradigms notwithstanding, the first week of the 43rd Parliament of Australia has confirmed a continuation of the gladiatorial contests that have characterised Australia’s model of presidential politics.
And that means a confronting truth for both Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott: the public’s perceptions of their personal strengths and weakness are central to the success of their respective political projects.
There was a time when character research was a dark art, the province of party focus groups, only dusted of at election time when attacks would be constructed around a candidate’s lack of ticker (read weight) or stubbornness (read age). The modern opinion polling means today it’s all out in the open.