Essential Facts For Reading Our Poll

Aug 11, 2010

The Essential Report has been drawing a bit of comment in recent days, notably for failing to chart a perceived collapse in Labor support in week two of the campaign.

We were in the firing line on the Insiders on Saturday, where George Megalogenis noted that ,as an online poll, we have a different methodology to the major poll, so should not be treated with the same level of credence.

It is true that the Essential Poll uses a different model to the established pollsters – unlike phone-polling, we draw on a community panel of about 100,00 votes established by Your Source.

So why are the Essential numbers different to the phone pollsters? Comments »

The Punch: Remembering ‘Abbott’s dad’: top 10 Howard era memories

Aug 11, 2010

First Published on The Punch 10/8/2010

Goldfish have a neat survival mechanism to prevent them ever getting bored – by the time they have swum around the bowl they have forgotten the previous lap. It makes them a lot like voters at election time.

This is why we are grateful when our failed candidates enter the fray to remind us of why we voted against them. And while Mark Latham has rightly been drawing attention, like onlookers to a car crash, another leader took centre stage over the weekend to take us back to meaner and trickier times.

As he moved in to give Tony Abbott a man-hug at the Liberal launch, John Howard reminded us of many of Australia’s most forgettable moments. Given that Abbott is running on a “re-elect the Howard Government” ticket it is worth dwelling on our former Prime Minister’s Ten Most Notable Contributions to the Nation.

Downward Envy – John Howard trained Australians to look down the chain when we were feeling low – welfare cheats, single mums, dole bludgers, these were the people making life hard for decent Australians. As profit levels soared and CEO wages sky-rocketed, we tut-tutted the Paxtons. Comments »

Federal politics – voting intention

Aug 9, 2010

Q. The Federal Election will be held on 21 August –  to which party will you probably give your first preference in the House of Representatives? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to for the House of Representatives?

 2,763 sample size

First preference/leaning to  6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week

 

Liberal 35% 36% 37% 37% 39%
National 3% 3% 2% 2% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 38% 38% 39% 39% 42%
Labor 44% 41% 41% 40% 41%
Greens 10% 13% 13% 13% 10%
Family First 2% 2% 2% 3% 3%
Other/Independent 6% 6% 5% 5% 5%

 

2PP 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week

 

Total Lib/Nat 45% 45% 45% 46% 48%
Labor 55% 55% 55% 54% 52%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.

* Sample is the aggregation of two weeks’ polling data.   Comments »

Approval of Julia Gillard

Aug 9, 2010

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

Kevin Rudd Julia Gillard
29 Mar 31 May 5 Jul 19 Jul 26 Jul 2 Aug 9 Aug
Total approve 53% 41% 48% 52% 49% 46% 45%
Total disapprove 36% 47% 27% 30% 33% 38% 40%
Strongly approve 12% 7% 14% 11% 12% 10% 13%
Approve 41% 34% 34% 41% 37% 36% 32%
Disapprove 22% 25% 13% 17% 19% 23% 24%
Strongly disapprove 14% 22% 14% 13% 14% 15% 16%
Don’t know 12% 12% 26% 18% 17% 15% 15%

45% approve Julia Gillard’s performance as Prime Minister and 40% disapprove. Since this question was asked last week, approval has decreased by 1% and disapproval increased by 2%. 87% of Labor voters approve and only 5% disapprove. Among Liberal/National voters, 14% approve and 77% disapprove.

By gender – men 42% approve/45% disapprove and women 47% approve/34% disapprove. Comments »

Approval of Tony Abbott

Aug 9, 2010

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

18 Jan 22 Feb 29 Mar 3 May 31 May 28 Jun 5 Jul 19 Jul 26 Jul 2 Aug 9 Aug
Total approve 37% 45% 33% 39% 35% 40% 37% 40% 35% 38% 40%
Total disapprove 37% 36% 50% 43% 50% 39% 47% 44% 46% 48% 45%
Strongly approve 5% 12% 8% 5% 5% 9% 8% 6% 6% 8% 8%
Approve 32% 33% 25% 34% 30% 31% 29% 34% 29% 30% 32%
Disapprove 20% 20% 28% 24% 28% 20% 23% 22% 22% 27% 25%
Strongly disapprove 17% 16% 22% 19% 22% 19% 24% 22% 24% 21% 20%
Don’t know 26% 18% 16% 18% 16% 20% 16% 16% 19% 14% 15%

40% approve Tony Abbott’s performance as Opposition Leader and 45% disapprove. Since this question was asked last week, approval has increased by 2% and disapproval decreased by 3%. 80% of Liberal/National voters approve and 11% disapprove. Among Labor voters, 14% approve and 77% disapprove.

By gender – men 46% approve/45% disapprove and women 34% approve/47% disapprove. Comments »

Better Prime Minister

Aug 9, 2010

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

  5 Jul 10 19 Jul 10 26 Jul 10 2 Aug 10 9 Aug 10 Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens   Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott

21 Jun 10

Julia Gillard 53% 50% 51% 48% 45% 90% 6% 70%   47%
Tony Abbott 26% 27% 26% 30% 33% 3% 78% 4%   30%
Don’t know 21% 23% 23% 22% 21% 8% 15% 25%   23%

 45% think Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 33% prefer Tony Abbott – a narrowing of the gap between the two (from 18% to 12%) since polled last week.

 Julia Gillard is preferred 90% to 3% by Labor voters – and Tony Abbott is preferred 78% to 6% by Liberal/National voters. Greens voters prefer Julia Gillard 70% to 4%.

 Men prefer Julia Gillard 41%/39% and women 49%/28%. Comments »

Party Best at

Aug 9, 2010

Q. Which of the major parties – Labor or Liberal – do you think is the best party when it comes to –

  Labor Liberal Don’t know Labor margin
Making sure large companies pay their fair share of taxation 47% 25% 28% +22
Looking after the needs of low income earners and pensioners 42% 23% 34% +19
Understanding the needs of the average Australian 43% 28% 29% +15
Ensuring a quality education for all children 42% 27% 31% +15
Handling environmental and climate change issues 38% 24% 38% +14
Handling the economy in a way that helps working people in Australia 44% 35% 21% +9
Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system  38% 29% 33% +9
Representing the interests of you and people like you 43% 35% 22% +8
Having a vision for Australia’s future 36% 33% 31% +3
Providing strong leadership 33% 33% 34%
Handling Australia’s relations with other countries 33% 38% 29% -5
Handling Australia’s economy 38% 44% 18% -6
Being a stable and reliable Government 30% 38% 31% -8
Dealing with the issue of immigration 25% 43% 32% -18

 Main strengths for Labor are making sure large companies pay their fair share of taxation, looking after the needs of low income earners and pensioners, understanding the needs of the average Australian, ensuring a quality education for all children and handling environmental and climate change issues.

 The Liberal Party is considered to be best at dealing with the issue of immigration, being a stable and reliable Government and handling Australia’s economy. Comments »

Opinion of Julia Gillard

Aug 9, 2010

Q. Since the election was called has your opinion of Julia Gillard and the Labor Party gone up or down?

  Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total gone up 19% 38% 8% 18%
Total gone down 42% 16% 68% 38%
Gone up a lot 6% 15% 1% 2%
Gone up a little 13% 23% 7% 16%
Stayed the same 32% 43% 22% 41%
Gone down a little 20% 15% 25% 24%
Gone down a lot 22% 1% 43% 14%
Don’t know 7% 2% 1% 3%

 19% say their opinion of Julia Gillard and the Labor Party has gone up during the election campaign and 42% say it has gone down.

 Among Labor voters 38% say their opinion has gone up and 18% say it has gone down.

 By gender – men 22% up/44% down and women 16% up/40% down. Comments »

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