The Essential Report Archive Read the latest report
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ER, Essential Report, Greens, Labor, Liberal, politicians, Politicians Lie, Politicians trust, truth
Circumstances in which Politicians Lie
Q. In which of the following situations do you think it is acceptable for a politician to lie:
The most acceptable situation in which respondents condoned lying is ‘where an individual’s safety is concerned’ (43%) and ‘when the information impacts on national security’ (42%). Twenty four (24%) regard it as acceptable to lie ‘when the information impacts on the nation’s economic interests’ and 20% see it as acceptable to lie ‘when new information about a situation comes to hand’.
The most unacceptable circumstance in which a politician can lie is ‘where a change of position is required for political considerations’ (81% not acceptable).
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2PP, Essential Report, Federal Government, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, two party preferred, voting, Voting intention
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1909 respondents
First preference/leaning to Election 21 Aug 10
4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week Liberal 46% 46% 46% 45% National 3% 3% 3% 3% Total Lib/Nat 43.6% 49% 49% 49% 48% Labor 38.0% 30% 32% 32% 33% Greens 11.8% 11% 10% 12% 11% Other/Independent 6.6% 10% 9% 8% 9% 2PP Election 21 Aug 10
4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 57% 56% 56% 55% Labor 50.1% 43% 44% 44% 45% NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
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economy, Essential Report, Polling
The Economy
Q. Over the next 12 months do you think economic conditions in Australia will get better, get worse or stay much the same?
1 Dec 08
15 Jun 09 5 Oct 09
28 Jun 10
18 Oct 10
4 April 11
4 Jul 11
3 Oct 11
Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Total better 21% 43% 66% 33% 40% 27% 22% 16% 26% 12% 15% Total worse 61% 37% 15% 31% 30% 37% 49% 58% 39% 72% 58% Get a lot better 2% 5% 8% 5% 6% 4% 3% 2% 5% 1% 3% Get a little better 19% 38% 58% 28% 34% 23% 19% 14% 21% 11% 12% Get a little worse 45% 28% 11% 23% 20% 27% 31% 41% 34% 47% 44% Get a lot worse 16% 9% 4% 8% 10% 10% 18% 17% 5% 25% 14% Stay much the same 13% 17% 15% 30% 24% 27% 25% 22% 33% 15% 27% No opinion 5% 3% 4% 7% 6% 8% 4% 4% 3% 1% 1% Confidence in the economic outlook has weakened with the percentage of respondents believing conditions to be getting worse increasing 9 points to 58% (total worse), from 49% in July this year. Those believing that economic conditions will get better over the next 12 months has fallen 6 points from 22% to 16% (total better).
Compared to 12 months ago, respondents are far less likely to think things will get better, having fallen from 40% (total better) in October 2010 to 16% (total better). Conversely, pessimism has risen since this time last year, with the proportion of respondents believing conditions to get worse increasing from 30% (total worse) in October 2010 to 58% (total worse).
Labor voters are far less likely to think that things will get worse (39% total worse). Coalition voters are the most pessimistic, with 72% (total worse) believing that thing will get worse over the next 12 months.
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Essential Report, Personal financial situation, Polling
Personal financial situation
Q, Over the next 12 months do you think your personal financial situation will get better, get worse or stay much the same?
28 Jun 10
18 Oct 10
4 April 11
4 Jul 11
3 Oct 11
Vote Labor
Vote Lib/Nat
Vote Greens
Total better 29% 33% 32% 28% 24% 30% 23% 32% Total worse 31% 29% 31% 36% 41% 27% 52% 35% Get a lot better 5% 6% 7% 5% 4% 6% 3% 7% Get a little better 24% 27% 25% 23% 20% 24% 20% 25% Get a little worse 21% 21% 22% 23% 27% 16% 34% 29% Get a lot worse 10% 8% 9% 13% 14% 11% 18% 6% Stay much the same 37% 32% 32% 32% 32% 41% 24% 31% No opinion 4% 5% 5% 3% 3% 2% 1% 2% Twenty four per cent (24%) of respondents believe that their personal financial situation will get a lot better (4%) or a little better (20%) in the next 12 months. A larger proportion of respondents believe that their personal financial situation will get a little worse (27%) or a lot worse (14%) over the next 12 months (41% total worse).
Compared to 12 months ago, individual optimism over personal financial situations has weakened, falling from 33% (total better) in October 2010 to 24% (total better).
The proportion of respondents believing their personal financial situation will get worse over the next 12 months has risen 12% from 29% (total worse) in October 2010 to 41% (total worse).
Greens voters are the most likely to believe that their personal financial situation will get better over the next 12 months (32% total better), whereas Coalition voters are the most likely to believe that theirs will get worse (52% total worse).
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Essential Report, job security, Polling
Job security
Q. How concerned are you that you or some member of your immediate family will lose their job in the next year or so: very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not at all concerned?
8 Jun 09
5 Oct 09
28 Jun 10 18 Oct 10 4 Apr 11
4 Jul 11
3 Oct 11
Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Total concerned 52% 49% 43% 40% 43% 45% 47% 43% 55% 38% Very concerned 13% 14% 9% 11% 11% 13% 14% 11% 19% 7% Somewhat concerned 39% 35% 34% 29% 32% 32% 33% 32% 36% 31% Not at all concerned 35% 40% 38% 42% 43% 39% 37% 40% 34% 51% Don’t know 6% 6% 12% 10% 8% 8% 7% 8% 6% 4% No employees in the immediate family 8% 5% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 9% 5% 7% Concern over job security has risen slightly since the last time the question was polled, increasing 2 points up from 45% in July 2011 to 47% (total concerned).
In the 12 months from October 2010, total concern has increased from 40% to 47%.
Coalition voters are the most likely to be concerned that they or a member of their immediately family will lose their job in the next year or so (55% total concerned), whereas Greens voters are less likely to be concerned (38% total concerned).
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Carbon Tax, Essential Report, GST, Mining tax, negative gearing, Polling, tax, tax reform
Tax reform
Q. For each of the following proposals around tax reform, please indicate whether you strongly support, support, oppose or strongly oppose the suggestion.
Total Support Total Oppose Strongly support Support Oppose Strongly Oppose Don’t know Decreasing income tax for low income earners 81% 11% 34% 47% 8% 3% 7% Improving tax breaks for small-medium business 76% 10% 20% 56% 7% 3% 13% Increasing the mining tax 47% 37% 16% 31% 22% 15% 16% Abolishing negative gearing on new property purchases 33% 37% 8% 25% 20% 17% 29% Cutting the company tax rate 32% 41% 6% 26% 29% 12% 28% Repealing the fringe benefits tax 30% 28% 7% 23% 19% 9% 42% Increasing the carbon tax 19% 68% 5% 14% 21% 47% 13% Introducing an inheritance tax 10% 75% 3% 7% 24% 51% 15% Increasing the goods and services tax (GST) 9% 84% 1% 8% 31% 53% 7% Decreasing income tax for low income earners has the strongest support from respondents, with 81% either strongly supporting or supporting the suggestion. Improving tax breaks for small-medium business also attracted a similar amount of endorsement (76% total support).
Increasing the mining tax has a significant amount of support (47% total support).
Whilst the proposed reforms of abolishing negative gearing on new property purchases and cutting the company tax rate attracted a significant amount of support, more respondents are opposed to these measures than in favour of them: with 37% opposed to abolishing negative gearing and 41% opposed to cutting the company tax rate.
Strongest opposition is registered against the proposal to increase the GST, with 84% opposed to the idea and only 9% in favour of it. Introducing an inheritance tax is similarly unpopular (75% total opposed).
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Carbon Tax, Essential Report, GST, income tax, Mining tax, negative gearing, Polling, tax
Tax reform by Voting Intention
Q. For each of the following proposals around tax reform, please indicate whether you strongly support, support, oppose or strongly oppose the suggestion.
Total Support Total Support – Labor Total Support – Lib/Nat Total Support – Greens Decreasing income tax for low income earners 81% 85% 81% 81% Improving tax breaks for small-medium business 76% 74% 85% 71% Increasing the mining tax 47% 67% 35% 72% Abolishing negative gearing on new property purchases 33% 37% 33% 38% Cutting the company tax rate 32% 24% 43% 25% Repealing the fringe benefits tax 30% 25% 40% 22% Increasing the carbon tax 19% 29% 8% 60% Introducing an inheritance tax 10% 14% 10% 18% Increasing the goods and services tax (GST) 9% 7% 12% 12% Labor voters are far more likely to support increasing the mining tax (47% total support) and increasing the carbon tax (29% total support).
Coalition voters are more likely to support improving tax breaks for small-medium business (85% total support), cutting the company tax rate (43% total support), repealing the fringe benefits tax (40% total support) and increasing the GST (12% total support).
Greens voters are the most likely to support increasing the mining tax (72%) and by far the most likely to support increasing the carbon tax (60% total support). They are also more likely to support introducing an inheritance tax (18% total support) and increasing the GST (12% total support).
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Australian jobs, employment, Industrial Relations, investment, job creation
Jobs reform
Q. To what extent do you agree that the following measures will improve job creation and investment in Australia?
Total Agree Total Disagree Strongly Agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know Increasing the number of apprenticeships 88% 4% 38% 50% 4% 0% 7% Giving incentives to companies that invest in research and development 79% 8% 26% 53% 7% 1% 12% Boosting investment in renewable energy technologies 75% 11% 30% 45% 8% 3% 14% Requiring companies to use Australian made steel in large infrastructure projects 73% 11% 27% 46% 9% 2% 15% Implementing industrial relations changes that give more flexibility to business 57% 19% 13% 44% 14% 5% 24% Bringing back tariffs on products imported from overseas 52% 29% 16% 36% 20% 9% 19% Introducing industrial relations reforms to make it easier to hire and fire people 41% 41% 13% 28% 29% 12% 18% Increasing the number of apprenticeships (88% total agree) is the most popular measure for improving job creation and investment in Australia, followed by giving incentives to companies that invest in research and development (79% total agree) and boosting investment in renewable energy technologies (75%).
Requiring companies to use Australian made steel in large infrastructure projects is also strongly endorsed by respondents (73% total agree).
The least popular measure is introducing industrial relations reforms to make it easier to hire and fire people (41% total disagree). Asked with a different emphasis, there is significantly less opposition to the suggestion of implementing industrial relations changes that give more flexibility to business (19% total disagree).