17 December 2012, 171212, Julia Gillard, Labor Party
Q. Do you think Julia Gillard will still be leader of the Labor Party at the next election – due later next year?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Yes |
39% |
63% |
26% |
52% |
| No |
40% |
19% |
59% |
21% |
| Don’t know |
21% |
18% |
14% |
26% |
39% think Julia Gillard will still be leader of the Labor Party at the next election and 40% think she will not.
63% of Labor voters think she will still be leader.
17 December 2012, 171212, Liberal Party
Q. Do you think Tony Abbott will still be leader of the Liberal Party at the next election – due later next year?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Yes |
38% |
26% |
54% |
33% |
| No |
35% |
54% |
20% |
44% |
| Don’t know |
27% |
19% |
26% |
23% |
38% think Tony Abbott will still be leader of the Labor Party at the next election and 35% think he will not.
54% of Liberal/National voters think he will still be leader.
17 December 2012, 171212, AWU, carbom tax, ndis, rudd
Q. What do you think was the most significant political event of 2012?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Implementation of the carbon tax |
41% |
40% |
44% |
52% |
| Rudd leadership challenge |
14% |
16% |
14% |
12% |
| Reopening asylum seeker detention centres on Manus Island and Nauru |
9% |
7% |
11% |
8% |
| AWU slush fund allegations against the Prime Minister |
7% |
1% |
14% |
– |
| Julia Gillard’s sexism speech in Parliament |
6% |
11% |
2% |
3% |
| Bipartisan support for National Disability Insurance Scheme |
5% |
9% |
3% |
4% |
| Australia winning a seat on the UN Security Council |
5% |
8% |
3% |
4% |
| Don’t know |
13% |
8% |
8% |
16% |
41% think the most significant political event of the year was the implementation of the carbon tax and 14% think it was the Rudd leadership challenge.
All voter groups thought the implementation of the carbon tax was the most significant event.
Liberal/National voters were more likely to think the AWU slush fund allegations against the Prime Minister was most significant (14%) while Labor voters were more likely to think Julia Gillard’s sexism speech in Parliament was most significant (11%).
10 December 2012, 101212, 2PP, ALP, Liberals, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,888 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 12/11/12 |
2 weeks ago 26/11/12 |
Last week 3/12/12 |
This week 10/12/12 |
| Liberal |
|
42% |
44% |
44% |
45% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
45% |
47% |
47% |
48% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
37% |
36% |
37% |
36% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
10% |
9% |
8% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
8% |
8% |
7% |
8% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
52% |
53% |
53% |
54% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
48% |
47% |
47% |
46% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
10 December 2012, 101212, Approval of Julia Gillard, Prime Minister
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
|
|
19 |
20 Dec |
14 Mar |
14 June |
12 Sept |
12 Dec |
12 Mar 12 |
12 Jun |
10 Sept |
15 Oct |
12 Nov |
10 Dec |
| Total approve |
52% |
43% |
41% |
34% |
28% |
34% |
32% |
32% |
35% |
41% |
41% |
37% |
| Total disapprove |
30% |
40% |
46% |
54% |
64% |
54% |
61% |
56% |
54% |
51% |
49% |
53% |
| Strongly approve |
11% |
10% |
7% |
6% |
5% |
6% |
8% |
6% |
7% |
9% |
7% |
10% |
| Approve |
41% |
33% |
34% |
28% |
23% |
28% |
24% |
26% |
28% |
32% |
34% |
27% |
| Disapprove |
17% |
24% |
22% |
29% |
28% |
25% |
29% |
22% |
27% |
24% |
25% |
25% |
| Strongly disapprove |
13% |
16% |
24% |
25% |
36% |
29% |
32% |
34% |
27% |
27% |
24% |
28% |
| Don’t know |
18% |
17% |
13% |
13% |
8% |
11% |
7% |
12% |
11% |
8% |
10% |
11% |
37% (down 4%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 53% (up 4%) disapprove – an 8-point change in net rating from -8 to -16.
82% of Labor voters approve (down 3%) and 13% disapprove (up 5%).
By gender – men 36% approve/57% disapprove, women 38% approve/48% disapprove. In net terms this represents a shift with men from -16 to -21 and with women from 0 to -10.
10 December 2012, 101212, Approval of opposition leader, Approval of Tony Abbott
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
|
18 Jan |
5 |
20 Dec |
14 Mar |
14 Jun |
12 Sep |
12 Dec |
12 Mar 12 |
12 Jun |
10 Sept |
15 Oct |
12 Nov |
10 Dec |
|
| Total approve |
37% |
37% |
39% |
38% |
38% |
39% |
32% |
36% |
32% |
32% |
37% |
33% |
33% |
| Total disapprove |
37% |
47% |
39% |
47% |
48% |
50% |
53% |
52% |
54% |
55% |
54% |
58% |
56% |
| Strongly approve |
5% |
8% |
9% |
7% |
6% |
8% |
6% |
7% |
6% |
6% |
9% |
6% |
8% |
| Approve |
32% |
29% |
30% |
31% |
32% |
31% |
26% |
29% |
26% |
26% |
28% |
27% |
25% |
| Disapprove |
20% |
23% |
21% |
24% |
25% |
23% |
25% |
23% |
24% |
26% |
23% |
28% |
25% |
| Strongly disapprove |
17% |
24% |
18% |
23% |
23% |
27% |
28% |
29% |
30% |
29% |
31% |
30% |
31% |
| Don’t know |
26% |
16% |
22% |
16% |
15% |
11% |
14% |
12% |
13% |
13% |
9% |
10% |
12% |
33% (no change) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 56% (down 2%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -25 to -23 over the last 4 weeks.
63% (down 2%) of Coalition voters approve and 30% (up 1%) disapprove.
By gender – men 37% approve/55% disapprove, women 28% approve/56% disapprove. In net terms this represents a small improvement with men from -20 to -18 and with women from -30 to -28.
10 December 2012, 101212, Better Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, preferred PM, tony abbott
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
|
5 |
14 Mar 11 |
14 June |
12 Sept |
12 Dec |
12 Mar 12 |
12 Jun |
10 Sept |
15 Oct |
12 Nov |
10 Dec |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Julia Gillard |
53% |
44% |
41% |
36% |
39% |
40% |
37% |
40% |
43% |
45% |
43% |
92% |
6% |
80% |
| Tony Abbott |
26% |
33% |
36% |
40% |
35% |
37% |
37% |
37% |
36% |
32% |
34% |
4% |
71% |
1% |
| Don’t know |
21% |
23% |
24% |
24% |
26% |
23% |
26% |
24% |
20% |
23% |
23% |
5% |
23% |
19% |
43% (down 2%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 34% (up 2%) prefer Tony Abbott.
Men prefer Julia Gillard 40%/39% and women prefer Julia Gillard 46%/29%. Compared to last month’s figures, Julia Gillard’s margin over Tony Abbott has dropped 3 points among men (from 40%/36%) and 4 points among women (from 49%/28%).
10 December 2012, 101212, decrease in costs, electricity costs, gas costs, increase in costs
Q. Over the last few years, have your gas and/or electricity costs increased, decreased or stayed much the same?
| Total increased |
86% |
| Total decreased |
2% |
| Increased a lot |
45% |
| Increased a moderate amount |
26% |
| Increased a little |
15% |
| Stayed about the same |
8% |
| Decreased a little |
1% |
| Decreased a moderate amount |
* |
| Decreased a lot |
1% |
| Don’t know |
5% |
86% say their power costs have increased over the last few years including 45% who say their costs have increased a lot.
Those most likely to say their power costs have increased a lot were aged 45-54 (59%) and Liberal/National voters (50%).
There were no substantial differences across income groups.
88% of those with air conditioning or evaporative cooling said their power costs had increased including 47% who said they have increased a lot.
In comparison, 79% of those without air conditioning or evaporative cooling said their power costs had increased including 40% who said they have increased a lot.