16 September 2013, 160913, Austrlain economy
Q. From what you have read and heard, do you think the Australian economy is heading in the right direction or the wrong direction?
|
|
17 May 10 |
9 May 11 |
4 Jul 11 |
26 Mar 12 |
18 Jun 12 |
29 Apr 13 |
15 Jul 13 |
|
Total 16 Sep 13 |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
| The right direction |
51% |
45% |
37% |
36% |
43% |
36% |
38% |
44% |
40% |
52% |
33% |
||
| The wrong direction |
25% |
29% |
43% |
41% |
32% |
39% |
42% |
26% |
33% |
20% |
30% |
||
| Don’t know |
24% |
25% |
20% |
22% |
25% |
25% |
20% |
30% |
27% |
28% |
37% |
44% of respondents think that Australia’s economy is heading in the right direction – 26% think it is heading in the wrong direction. Since this question was asked in July, “right direction” has increased 6% and “wrong direction” decreased 16%.
40% (down 26%) of Labor voters, 52% (up 34%) of Liberal/National voters and 33% (down 13%) of Greens voters think the economy is heading in the right direction. 50% of men think the economy is heading in the right direction compared to 37% of women.
16 September 2013, 160913, Australian economy
Q. Over the next 12 months do you think economic conditions in Australia will get better, get worse or stay much the same?
|
|
1 Dec 08 |
5 Oct 09 |
18 Oct 10 |
3 Oct 11 |
27 Aug 12 |
29 Jan 13 |
|
Total 16 Sep 13 |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
| Total better |
21% |
66% |
40% |
16% |
22% |
29% |
38% |
16% |
68% |
13% |
||
| Total worse |
61% |
15% |
30% |
58% |
45% |
37% |
33% |
59% |
8% |
58% |
||
| Get a lot better |
2% |
8% |
6% |
2% |
3% |
4% |
7% |
4% |
14% |
– |
||
| Get a little better |
19% |
58% |
34% |
14% |
19% |
25% |
31% |
12% |
54% |
13% |
||
| Get a little worse |
45% |
11% |
20% |
41% |
30% |
28% |
23% |
40% |
7% |
40% |
||
| Get a lot worse |
16% |
4% |
10% |
17% |
15% |
9% |
10% |
19% |
1% |
18% |
||
| Stay much the same |
13% |
15% |
24% |
22% |
27% |
27% |
19% |
17% |
19% |
20% |
||
| Don’t know |
5% |
4% |
6% |
4% |
6% |
6% |
10% |
9% |
5% |
10% |
Confidence in the economic outlook has improved since January. The percentage of respondents believing conditions will get better increased 9 points to 38%, while those believing that economic conditions will get worse over the next 12 months dropped 4 points to 33%. This is the most positive outlook recorded since October 2010.
Shifts in opinion are strongly associated with voting intention – Labor voters have shifted from 50% better/22% worse (net +28) to 16% better/59% worse (net -43). Liberal/National voters have shifted from 21% better/51% worse (net -30) to 68% better/8% worse (net +60).
05 September 2013, 050913, 2PP, election 2013, Greens, Labor Party, Liberal Party, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. The Federal Election will be held next weekend on 7 September – to which party will you probably give your first preference in the House of Representatives? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
The table below shows weekly figures through the election campaign.
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
5/8/13 |
13/8/13 |
19/8/13 |
26/8/13 |
2/9/13 |
5/9/13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
| Liberal National |
43.6% |
43% |
44% |
43% |
43% |
44% |
43% |
|
| Labor |
38.0% |
37% |
41% |
39% |
36% |
35% |
35% |
|
| Greens |
11.8% |
10% |
7% |
9% |
11% |
10% |
10% |
|
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
11% |
9% |
8% |
10% |
11% |
12% |
| 2 Party Preferred |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
5/8/13 |
13/8/13 |
19/8/13 |
26/8/13 |
2/9/13 |
5/9/13 |
| Liberal National |
49.9% |
51% |
50% |
50% |
51% |
53% |
52% |
|
| Labor |
50.1% |
49% |
50% |
50% |
49% |
47% |
48% |
Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
05 September 2013, 050913, firmness of vote, Voting intention
Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind about who you vote for before the Federal election?
|
Total Gave voting intention |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Other party/ Independent |
|
5 Aug |
19 Aug |
26 Aug |
2 Sep |
|
| I will definitely not change my mind |
54% |
54% |
63% |
42% |
29% |
44% |
46% |
47% |
54% |
||
| It is very unlikely I will change my mind |
27% |
29% |
22% |
32% |
32% |
30% |
32% |
30% |
27% |
||
| It is quite possible I will change my mind as the campaign develops |
15% |
14% |
12% |
18% |
30% |
21% |
17% |
18% |
15% |
||
| Don’t know |
4% |
3% |
3% |
9% |
9% |
5% |
5% |
4% |
4% |
54% of those who gave their voting intention say they will definitely not change their mind before the election, 27% say it is very unlikely they will change their mind and 15% say it is quite possible they will change.
Other party and independent voters (30%) were most likely to say it is possible they will change their mind.
050913, 5 September 2013, better leader, change of government, economy, evironment policies, reason for vote, united party
Q. Which of the following are the main reasons why you will vote for that party? (up to 3 responses)
|
Total
|
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Other party/ Independent |
|
| Better at handling Australia’s economy |
42% |
29% |
69% |
7% |
13% |
|
| Better at looking after the interests people like me |
28% |
37% |
19% |
25% |
35% |
|
| They are more likely to represent the interests of all Australians |
33% |
37% |
24% |
33% |
51% |
|
| I always vote for the same party |
10% |
13% |
10% |
9% |
1% |
|
| They have a better leader |
20% |
35% |
14% |
5% |
13% |
|
| More trustworthy than the other parties |
22% |
21% |
15% |
45% |
33% |
|
| They are more united |
12% |
2% |
21% |
15% |
5% |
|
| They are more capable of governing effectively than the other parties |
15% |
10% |
26% |
6% |
3% |
|
| They have better policies on things like education and health |
15% |
29% |
4% |
21% |
9% |
|
| They have better policies on things like environment and climate change |
11% |
13% |
1% |
55% |
6% |
|
| They have better policies on things like industrial relations and supporting Australian workers |
8% |
16% |
3% |
8% |
8% |
|
| They have better policies on things like national security and immigration |
9% |
3% |
12% |
15% |
6% |
|
| We need a change of Government |
18% |
1% |
28% |
10% |
36% |
|
| No reason |
4% |
5% |
3% |
1% |
4% |
|
| Don’t know |
2% |
2% |
2% |
3% |
4% |
Main reasons for voting Labor were better at looking after the interests of people like me (37%), more likely to represent the interests of all Australians (37%) and have a better leader (35%).
Main reasons for voting Liberal or National were better at handling the economy (69%), need a change of Government (28%) and more capable of governing effectively (26%).
05 September 2013, 050913, election 2013, election poll, opinion of Kevin Rudd
Q. Since the election was called has your opinion of Kevin Rudd and the Labor Party gone up or down?
|
Total
|
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total gone up |
16% |
33% |
6% |
9% |
|
| Total gone down |
40% |
12% |
65% |
42% |
|
| Gone up a lot |
7% |
16% |
2% |
6% |
|
| Gone up a little |
9% |
17% |
4% |
3% |
|
| Stayed the same |
38% |
53% |
26% |
47% |
|
| Gone down a little |
14% |
9% |
16% |
25% |
|
| Gone down a lot |
26% |
3% |
49% |
17% |
|
| Don’t know |
5% |
2% |
3% |
2% |
16% say their opinion of Kevin Rudd has gone up since the election was called and 40% say it has gone down. Views follow party preferences with 65% of Liberal/national voters saying their opinion of Kevin Rudd had gone down and 33% of Labor voters saying their opinion had gone up. Greens voters opinions were more likely to have gone down.
050913, 5 September 2013, Election 2013 poll, opinion of tony abbott
Q. Since the election was called has your opinion of Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party gone up or down?
|
Total
|
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total gone up |
25% |
7% |
51% |
8% |
|
| Total gone down |
35% |
59% |
5% |
63% |
|
| Gone up a lot |
10% |
2% |
21% |
1% |
|
| Gone up a little |
15% |
5% |
30% |
7% |
|
| Stayed the same |
35% |
32% |
42% |
27% |
|
| Gone down a little |
11% |
15% |
3% |
19% |
|
| Gone down a lot |
24% |
44% |
2% |
44% |
|
| Don’t know |
5% |
2% |
3% |
1% |
25% say their opinion of Tony Abbott has gone up since the election was called and 35% say it has gone down. Views follow party preferences with 51% of Liberal/national voters saying their opinion of Tony Abbott had gone up and 59% of Labor voters saying their opinion had gone down. Greens voters opinions were more likely to have gone down.
02 September 2013, 020913, 2PP, Greens, Labor Party, Liberal Party, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,856 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
4 weeks ago 5/8/13 |
2 weeks ago 19/8/13 |
Last week 26/8/13 |
This week 2/9/13 |
| Liberal |
|
40% |
41% |
40% |
41% |
|
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
2% |
3% |
|
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
43% |
44% |
43% |
44% |
|
| Labor |
38.0% |
38% |
40% |
38% |
35% |
|
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
8% |
11% |
11% |
|
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
10% |
| 2 Party Preferred |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
4 weeks ago 5/8/13 |
2 weeks ago 19/8/13 |
Last week 26/8/13 |
This week 2/9/13 |
| Liberal National |
49.9% |
51% |
50% |
50% |
52% |
|
| Labor |
50.1% |
49% |
50% |
50% |
48% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.