Support for Carbon Tax
Q. Does the Government’s decision to exempt fuel from the carbon tax for households, trade and small business make you more or less likely to support a carbon tax or does it make no difference?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Men | Women | Age
18-34 |
Aged
35-54 |
Aged 55+ | |
| Total more likely to support | 30% | 50% | 20% | 44% | 30% | 31% | 41% | 26% | 24% |
| Total less likely to support | 11% | 8% | 11% | 19% | 14% | 8% | 12% | 13% | 10% |
| A lot more likely to support | 7% | 18% | 2% | 12% | 9% | 6% | 8% | 7% | 6% |
| A little more likely to support | 23% | 32% | 18% | 32% | 21% | 25% | 33% | 19% | 18% |
| A little less likely to support | 6% | 8% | 5% | 13% | 7% | 4% | 8% | 7% | 5% |
| A lot less likely to support | 5% | * | 8% | 8% | 7% | 4% | 4% | 6% | 5% |
| Makes no difference | 52% | 36% | 66% | 29% | 50% | 53% | 37% | 55% | 63% |
| Don’t know | 6% | 6% | 2% | 5% | 5% | 7% | 9% | 6% | 3% |
More than half the respondents (52%) said the Government’s decision to exempt fuel from the carbon tax for households, trade and small business makes no difference to their support for the carbon tax. 30% say it makes them more likely to support the tax and 11% less likely.
Those more likely to support the tax were Labor voters (50%), Greens voters (44%) and people aged under 35 (41%).
Those most likely to say it makes no difference were Coalition voters (66%) and people aged 55+ (63%).
Support for Carbon Pricing
Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s proposal to introduce a carbon pricing scheme from 1 July 2012, which will require industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?
| 7 March | 14 March | 28 March | 18 April | 23 May | 30 May | 14 June | 11 July | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total support | 35% | 38% | 34% | 39% | 41% | 38% | 38% | 35% | 65% | 15% | 73% |
| Total oppose | 48% | 49% | 51% | 49% | 44% | 48% | 49% | 53% | 20% | 79% | 21% |
| Strongly support | 9% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 11% | 23% | 3% | 35% |
| Support | 26% | 26% | 22% | 26% | 27% | 24% | 25% | 24% | 42% | 12% | 38% |
| Oppose | 19% | 17% | 19% | 15% | 15% | 19% | 19% | 19% | 15% | 23% | 16% |
| Strongly oppose | 29% | 32% | 32% | 34% | 29% | 29% | 30% | 34% | 5% | 56% | 5% |
| Don’t know | 18% | 13% | 15% | 12% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 12% | 16% | 7% | 7% |
35% (down 3%) support the Government’s proposed carbon pricing scheme and 53% (up 4%) oppose. It is supported by 65% of Labor voters and 73% of Greens voters but opposed by 79% of coalition voters.
By age, those aged under 35 split 40% support/43% oppose, and those aged 55+ split 33% support/59% oppose.
- note that these result reflect opinions prior to the announcement of the details of carbon pricing.
Credibility of Scientists
Q. Do you agree or disagree that the current public campaign against action on climate change in Australia is undermining the credibility of scientists and science research in general?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total agree | 32% | 43% | 26% | 44% |
| Total disagree | 23% | 14% | 29% | 31% |
| Strongly agree | 12% | 15% | 10% | 22% |
| Agree | 20% | 28% | 16% | 22% |
| Neither agree nor disagree | 30% | 29% | 33% | 19% |
| Disagree | 15% | 10% | 18% | 21% |
| Strongly disagree | 8% | 4% | 11% | 10% |
| Don’t know | 15% | 13% | 12% | 6% |
32% agree that the current public campaign against action on climate change in Australia is undermining the credibility of scientists and science research in general and 23% disagree. 45% either don’t know or neither agree nor disagree.
Those most likely to agree were Labor voters (43%), Greens voters (44%) and those aged 18-34 (39%).
Attitude to Scientific Evidence for Climate Change
Q. Which of the following statements best reflects your attitude to doubts recently expressed by opponents of action on climate change about the science evidence?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Doubts are valid because nothing is certain in science | 15% | 14% | 18% | 9% |
| Doubts are valid because man made climate change has not been proven | 29% | 15% | 43% | 11% |
| Doubts are misleading because the science evidence of man made climate change is overwhelming | 21% | 33% | 14% | 36% |
| Doubts are misleading because the science evidence has been rigorously tested and reviewed | 11% | 15% | 7% | 27% |
| Don’t know | 23% | 24% | 17% | 17% |
Overall, 44% believe doubts about the science evidence for climate change are valid (mainly because man made climate change has not been proven) and 33% think doubts are misleading (mainly because the science evidence of man made climate change is overwhelming).
Those most likely to think the doubts are valid were Liberal/National voters (61%), men (50%), aged 55+ (59%) and incomes under $600pw (54%).
Those most likely to think doubts are misleading were Greens voters (63%), Labor voters (48%) and those on incomes over $1,600pw (41%).
Position on Climate Change
Q. Do you believe that there is fairly conclusive evidence that climate change is happening and caused by human activity or do you believe that the evidence is still not in and we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate which happens from time to time?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Men | Women | Aged 18-34 | Aged 35-54 | Aged 55+ | Nov 09 | Dec 10 | 30 May 11 | ||
| Climate change is happening and is caused by human activity | 50% | 64% | 34% | 83% | 45% | 54% | 60% | 49% | 38% | 53% | 45% | 52% | |
| We are just witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate | 39% | 28% | 55% | 10% | 44% | 33% | 27% | 37% | 55% | 34% | 36% | 36% | |
| Don’t know | 12% | 9% | 11% | 6% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 14% | 8% | 13% | 19% | 12% |
50% agree that climate change is happening and is caused by human activity and 39% believe that we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate. This is little changed since this question was last asked in May.
By age groups, those aged under 35 split 60%/27% and those aged 55+ split 38%/55%.
Confidence in Taking Action on Climate Change
Q. How confident are you that climate change can be averted if we take action now?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Very confident | 13% | 16% | 11% | 18% |
| Somewhat confident | 48% | 52% | 45% | 45% |
| Not very confident | 30% | 27% | 32% | 30% |
| Not at all confident | 6% | 2% | 10% | 5% |
| Don’t know | 2% | 3% | 1% | 3% |
*Based on those who believe “climate change is happening”
Of those who believe climate change is happening, 61% are very or somewhat confident that climate change can be averted if we take action now. A majority of all voter groups are very/somewhat confident.
By age, 68% of aged under 35 are confident compared to 58% of those aged 55+.
Important election issues
Q. Which are the three most important issues in deciding how you would vote at a Federal election?
| One | Two | Three | Total | 24 Jan 11 | 11 Oct 10 | 25 Jan 10 | |
| Management of the economy | 34% | 18% | 9% | 61% | 65% | 62% | 63% |
| Ensuring a quality education for all children | 6% | 10% | 10% | 26% | 26% | 32% | 23% |
| Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system | 15% | 15% | 19% | 49% | 49% | 48% | 48% |
| Protecting the environment | 4% | 6% | 5% | 15% | 13% | 12% | 16% |
| A fair industrial relations system | 2% | 3% | 3% | 8% | 10% | 11% | * |
| Political leadership | 6% | 6% | 5% | 17% | 16% | 16% | 23% |
| Addressing climate change | 6% | 4% | 5% | 15% | 10% | 11% | 16% |
| Controlling interest rates | 3% | 5% | 5% | 13% | 21% | 17% | 15% |
| Australian jobs and protection of local industries | 9% | 11% | 12% | 32% | 30% | 30% | 33% |
| Ensuring a quality water supply | 1% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 12% |
| Housing affordability | 4% | 6% | 6% | 16% | 16% | 17% | 14% |
| Ensuring a fair taxation system | 3% | 6% | 8% | 17% | 18% | 16% | 14% |
| Security and the war on terrorism | 2% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 5% | 6% | 9% |
| Treatment of asylum seekers | 1% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 5% | 5% | * |
| Managing population growth | 2% | 4% | 6% | 12% | 11% | 10% | * |
*Not asked
61% of people surveyed rated management of the economy as one of their three most important issues, followed by 49% ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system and 32% Australian jobs and protection of local industries.
Since January, there has been an increase in the importance of addressing climate change (from 10% to 15%) and a decrease in the importance of controlling interest rates (from 21% to 13%).
Important election issues
Q. Which are the three most important issues in deciding how you would vote at a Federal election?
| Total | Labor | Liberal/ National | Green | |
| Management of the economy | 61% | 60% | 76% | 28% |
| Ensuring a quality education for all children | 26% | 29% | 24% | 27% |
| Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system | 49% | 50% | 50% | 51% |
| Protecting the environment | 15% | 17% | 10% | 52% |
| A fair industrial relations system | 8% | 12% | 4% | 4% |
| Political leadership | 17% | 16% | 20% | 16% |
| Addressing climate change | 15% | 23% | 6% | 45% |
| Controlling interest rates | 13% | 15% | 13% | 6% |
| Australian jobs and protection of local industries | 32% | 28% | 36% | 12% |
| Ensuring a quality water supply | 5% | 5% | 3% | 7% |
| Housing affordability | 16% | 16% | 13% | 16% |
| Ensuring a fair taxation system | 17% | 14% | 19% | 16% |
| Security and the war on terrorism | 8% | 4% | 13% | 1% |
| Treatment of asylum seekers | 5% | 3% | 5% | 12% |
| Managing population growth | 12% | 12% | 12% | 9% |
There were few substantial differences between voters on issues they considered important. Compared to the average, Labor voters are more likely to rate addressing climate change (23%) as important.
Liberal/National voters attach more importance to management of the economy (76%) and security and the war on terrorism (13%) while Greens voters are more likely to nominate protecting the environment (52%), addressing climate change (45%) and treatment of asylum seekers (12%).
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 14 May 2019
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