Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,906 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 19/3/12 |
2 weeks ago 2/4/12 |
Last week 10/4/12 |
This week 16/4/12 |
| Liberal |
|
45% |
46% |
47% |
45% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
48% |
48% |
50% |
48% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
32% |
33% |
31% |
31% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
11% |
11% |
11% |
11% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
8% |
9% |
9% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
56% |
55% |
57% |
56% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
44% |
45% |
43% |
44% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
Approval of Julia Gillard
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
|
|
19 Jul 2010 |
20 Dec 2010 |
14 Mar 2011 |
14 June |
12 Sept |
17 Oct |
14 Nov |
12 Dec |
16 Jan 2012 |
13 Feb |
12 Mar |
16 Apr |
| Total approve |
52% |
43% |
41% |
34% |
28% |
34% |
37% |
34% |
37% |
36% |
32% |
32% |
| Total disapprove |
30% |
40% |
46% |
54% |
64% |
59% |
55% |
54% |
52% |
53% |
61% |
58% |
| Strongly approve |
11% |
10% |
7% |
6% |
5% |
7% |
8% |
6% |
6% |
6% |
8% |
7% |
| Approve |
41% |
33% |
34% |
28% |
23% |
27% |
29% |
28% |
31% |
30% |
24% |
25% |
| Disapprove |
17% |
24% |
22% |
29% |
28% |
27% |
25% |
25% |
27% |
26% |
29% |
31% |
| Strongly disapprove |
13% |
16% |
24% |
25% |
36% |
32% |
30% |
29% |
25% |
27% |
32% |
27% |
| Don’t know |
18% |
17% |
13% |
13% |
8% |
7% |
9% |
11% |
12% |
11% |
7% |
10% |
Julia Gillard’s approval rating has changed little since last month. 32% (no change) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 58% (down 3%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -29 to -26 over the last 5 weeks.
67% of Labor voters approve (down 8%) and 21% disapprove (up 1%).
By gender – men 32% approve/60% disapprove, women 32% approve/55% disapprove.
Approval of Tony Abbott
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
|
18 Jan 2010 |
5 Jul 2010 |
20 Dec 2010 |
14 Mar 2011 |
14 June |
12 Sept |
17 Oct |
14 Nov |
12 Dec |
16 Jan 2012 |
13 Feb |
12 Mar |
16 Apr |
|
| Total approve |
37% |
37% |
39% |
38% |
38% |
39% |
40% |
36% |
32% |
35% |
35% |
36% |
38% |
| Total disapprove |
37% |
47% |
39% |
47% |
48% |
50% |
51% |
52% |
53% |
51% |
53% |
52% |
50% |
| Strongly approve |
5% |
8% |
9% |
7% |
6% |
8% |
8% |
6% |
6% |
7% |
6% |
7% |
7% |
| Approve |
32% |
29% |
30% |
31% |
32% |
31% |
32% |
30% |
26% |
28% |
29% |
29% |
31% |
| Disapprove |
20% |
23% |
21% |
24% |
25% |
23% |
23% |
26% |
25% |
25% |
23% |
23% |
23% |
| Strongly disapprove |
17% |
24% |
18% |
23% |
23% |
27% |
28% |
26% |
28% |
26% |
30% |
29% |
27% |
| Don’t know |
26% |
16% |
22% |
16% |
15% |
11% |
9% |
12% |
14% |
13% |
12% |
12% |
13% |
Tony Abbott’s approval rating has improved a little over the last month. 38% (up 2%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 50% (down 2%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -16 to -12 over the last 5 weeks. This is Tony Abbott’s best rating since October.
72% (up 2%) of Coalition voters approve and 17% (down 4%) disapprove.
By gender – men 44% approve/47% disapprove, women 30% approve/52% disapprove.
Better Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
|
5 Jul 2010 |
14 Mar 2011 |
14 June |
12 Sept |
17 Oct |
14 Nov |
12 Dec |
16 Jan 2012 |
13 Feb |
12 Mar |
16 Apr |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Julia Gillard |
53% |
44% |
41% |
36% |
38% |
41% |
39% |
39% |
41% |
40% |
38% |
81% |
6% |
69% |
| Tony Abbott |
26% |
33% |
36% |
40% |
39% |
36% |
35% |
36% |
34% |
37% |
36% |
2% |
74% |
7% |
| Don’t know |
21% |
23% |
24% |
24% |
23% |
24% |
26% |
25% |
25% |
23% |
25% |
16% |
20% |
24% |
38% (down 2%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 36% (down 1%) prefer Tony Abbott – a net change from +3% to +2% for Julia Gillard.
Men prefer Tony Abbott 41%/36% and women prefer Julia Gillard 41%/32%.
Opinion of NBN
Q. From what you’ve heard, do you favour or oppose the planned national broadband network (NBN)?
|
27 Sep 2010 |
14 Feb 2011 |
18 Apr 2011 |
20 Feb 2012 |
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total favour |
56% |
48% |
54% |
56% |
57% |
80% |
42% |
68% |
| Total oppose |
18% |
31% |
28% |
25% |
22% |
4% |
40% |
9% |
| Strongly favour |
27% |
19% |
22% |
20% |
18% |
31% |
8% |
32% |
| Favour |
29% |
29% |
32% |
36% |
39% |
49% |
34% |
36% |
| Oppose |
12% |
16% |
13% |
15% |
15% |
4% |
26% |
9% |
| Strongly oppose |
6% |
15% |
15% |
10% |
7% |
– |
14% |
– |
| Don’t know |
26% |
22% |
18% |
19% |
21% |
16% |
18% |
23% |
Opposition to the NBN has declined a little since this question was last asked in February.
57% (+1%) favour the NBN and 22% (-3%) oppose it. There is overwhelming majority support from Labor and Greens voters and Liberal/National voters now support the NBN 42%/40%.
By age group, those aged under 35 were 63% favour/13% oppose and those aged 55+ were 53% favour/35% oppose.
79% of those that believe their area will be connected to the NBN in the next three years favour the NBN and only 12% oppose. Those who think they will not be connected in the next three years split 51% support/35% oppose.
Connection to NBN
Q. The Government recently announced the areas that will be connected to the NBN over the next 3 years? As far as you know, will the area where you live be connected to the NBN in the next 3 years?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Yes |
29% |
40% |
25% |
27% |
| No |
19% |
13% |
26% |
20% |
| Don’t know |
52% |
48% |
49% |
53% |
29% think their area will be connected to the NBN in the next three years – 19% think it will not be connected and 52% don’t know.
Older respondents tended to be better informed about the NBN than younger respondents. 59% of those aged under 35 said they don’t know compared to 45% of those aged 55+.
Whether Sign up for Access to NBN
Q. When the NBN becomes available in your area, will you sign up for internet access?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Definitely will |
15% |
22% |
11% |
24% |
| Probably will |
31% |
39% |
24% |
34% |
| Probably not |
16% |
8% |
24% |
7% |
| Definitely not |
6% |
1% |
10% |
2% |
| Don’t know |
33% |
29% |
31% |
34% |
46% say they will definitely or probably sign up for internet access when the NBN becomes available in their area – 22% will probably or definitely not and 33% don’t know.
Younger respondents were only a little more likely to sign up – 48% of those aged under 35 compared to 46% of aged 35-54 and 41% of those aged 55+.
There were no major demographic differences. The main differences were by voting intention – 61% of Labor voters and 58% of Greens voters said they would definitely/probably sign up compared to only 35% of Liberal/National voters.
Government Responsibilities
Q. Which of the following should be mainly the responsibility of the Federal Government and which should be mainly the responsibility of the State Governments – or should they have equal responsibility?
|
Mainly Federal |
Mainly State |
Both equally |
Don’t know |
|
| Constructing new roads and highways |
20% |
27% |
49% |
4% |
| Investing in public transport |
9% |
57% |
31% |
3% |
| Improving the health system |
46% |
8% |
42% |
3% |
| Improving the education system |
40% |
12% |
44% |
4% |
| Managing mining projects and mining profits |
45% |
17% |
30% |
7% |
| Investing in regional areas |
15% |
41% |
40% |
4% |
| Managing the environment |
35% |
9% |
52% |
4% |
| Managing our water resources |
26% |
21% |
49% |
4% |
| Addressing climate change |
42% |
3% |
47% |
8% |
| Industrial relations issues |
37% |
15% |
42% |
5% |
Issues which were considered mainly Federal responsibilities were the health system, mining projects/profits, climate change and education.
Public transport and regional investment were considered to be more the responsibilities of the State Governments.
The environment, managing water resources and constructing new roads and highways were more likely to be considered a shared responsibility.
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