Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,878 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 17/12/12 |
This week 14/01/13 |
| Liberal |
|
45% |
44% |
| National |
|
3% |
4% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
48% |
48% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
36% |
36% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
8% |
8% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
8% |
8% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
55% |
54% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
45% |
46% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
Approval of Julia Gillard
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
|
|
19 Jul 2010 |
20 Dec |
14 Mar 2011 |
14 June |
12 Sept |
12 Dec |
12 Mar 2012 |
12 Jun |
10 Sept |
10 Dec |
14 Jan 2013 |
| Total approve |
52% |
43% |
41% |
34% |
28% |
34% |
32% |
32% |
35% |
37% |
41% |
| Total disapprove |
30% |
40% |
46% |
54% |
64% |
54% |
61% |
56% |
54% |
53% |
49% |
| Strongly approve |
11% |
10% |
7% |
6% |
5% |
6% |
8% |
6% |
7% |
10% |
9% |
| Approve |
41% |
33% |
34% |
28% |
23% |
28% |
24% |
26% |
28% |
27% |
32% |
| Disapprove |
17% |
24% |
22% |
29% |
28% |
25% |
29% |
22% |
27% |
25% |
23% |
| Strongly disapprove |
13% |
16% |
24% |
25% |
36% |
29% |
32% |
34% |
27% |
28% |
26% |
| Don’t know |
18% |
17% |
13% |
13% |
8% |
11% |
7% |
12% |
11% |
11% |
10% |
41% (up 4%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 49% (down 4%) disapprove – an 8-point change in net rating from -16 to -8.
87% of Labor voters approve (up 5%) and 7% disapprove (down 6%).
By gender – men 40% approve/53% disapprove, women 42% approve/45% disapprove. In net terms this represents an improvement with men from -21 to -13 and with women from -10 to -3.
Approval of Tony Abbott
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
|
18 Jan 2010 |
5 Jul
|
20 Dec |
14 Mar 2011 |
14 June |
12 Sept |
12 Dec |
12 Mar 2012 |
12 Jun |
10 Sept |
10 Dec |
14 Jan 2013 |
|
| Total approve |
37% |
37% |
39% |
38% |
38% |
39% |
32% |
36% |
32% |
32% |
33% |
33% |
| Total disapprove |
37% |
47% |
39% |
47% |
48% |
50% |
53% |
52% |
54% |
55% |
56% |
57% |
| Strongly approve |
5% |
8% |
9% |
7% |
6% |
8% |
6% |
7% |
6% |
6% |
8% |
8% |
| Approve |
32% |
29% |
30% |
31% |
32% |
31% |
26% |
29% |
26% |
26% |
25% |
25% |
| Disapprove |
20% |
23% |
21% |
24% |
25% |
23% |
25% |
23% |
24% |
26% |
25% |
27% |
| Strongly disapprove |
17% |
24% |
18% |
23% |
23% |
27% |
28% |
29% |
30% |
29% |
31% |
30% |
| Don’t know |
26% |
16% |
22% |
16% |
15% |
11% |
14% |
12% |
13% |
13% |
12% |
10% |
33% (no change) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 57% (up 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -23 to -24 over the last 5 weeks.
62% (down 1%) of Coalition voters approve and 31% (up 1%) disapprove.
By gender – men 38% approve/53% disapprove, women 29% approve/60% disapprove. In net terms this represents a shift with men from -18 to -15 and with women from -28 to -31.
Better Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
|
5 Jul 2010 |
14 Mar 2011 |
14 June |
12 Sept |
12 Dec |
12 Mar 2012 |
12 Jun |
10 Sept |
10 Dec |
14 Jan 2013 |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Julia Gillard |
53% |
44% |
41% |
36% |
39% |
40% |
37% |
40% |
43% |
42% |
89% |
5% |
84% |
| Tony Abbott |
26% |
33% |
36% |
40% |
35% |
37% |
37% |
37% |
34% |
33% |
1% |
73% |
3% |
| Don’t know |
21% |
23% |
24% |
24% |
26% |
23% |
26% |
24% |
23% |
24% |
10% |
22% |
14% |
42% (down 1%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 33% (down 1%) prefer Tony Abbott.
Men prefer Julia Gillard 39%/38% and women prefer Julia Gillard 46%/29%.
Voluntary voting
Q. Voting in Federal and State elections in Australia is compulsory. Would you support or oppose making voting voluntary at Federal and State elections?
|
Total
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Support |
40% |
34% |
43% |
40% |
| Oppose |
49% |
56% |
49% |
53% |
| Don’t know |
11% |
9% |
8% |
8% |
40% support making voting voluntary at Federal and State elections and 49% oppose.
Highest support for voluntary voting was shown by Liberal/National voters (43%), respondents who don’t know which party they would vote for (48%), full-time workers (45%) and respondents aged 25-34 (49%).
Highest opposition to voluntary voting was shown by Labor voters (56%), and respondents aged 55+ (58%).
Likelihood of voting
Q. If voting at elections was voluntary, how likely would you be to vote in the next Federal election?
|
Total
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Would definitely vote |
58% |
61% |
67% |
67% |
| Would probably vote |
25% |
25% |
23% |
23% |
| Probably wouldn’t vote |
9% |
8% |
5% |
4% |
| Definitely wouldn’t vote |
4% |
4% |
2% |
2% |
| Don’t know |
5% |
2% |
3% |
3% |
If voting at elections was voluntary, 83% said they would definitely or probably vote in the next Federal election – 13% said they would probably or definitely not vote.
Those least likely to vote were aged under 45 (17%) and respondents who did not know which party they would vote for (38%).
Voting age
Q. Would you support or oppose lowering the voting age from 18 to 16?
|
Total
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Support |
13% |
17% |
10% |
24% |
| Oppose |
78% |
71% |
85% |
64% |
| No opinion |
9% |
11% |
4% |
12% |
Only 13% support lowering the voting age from 18 years to 16 years and 78% oppose.
Support was highest among Greens voters (24%) and respondents aged 25-34 (25%).
Preferred voting system
Q. Which of the following voting systems would you prefer when voting for the Federal House of Representatives.
- A preferential voting system where voters rank all candidates in order of preference.
- An optional preferential system where voters can rank one, some, or all candidates in order of preference.
- A “first past the post” system, where voters only vote for one candidate and the candidate with the most votes wins.
|
11 Jul 11 |
Total 14 Jan 13 |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Preferential |
22% |
23% |
29% |
20% |
32% |
| Optional preferential |
26% |
25% |
26% |
23% |
43% |
| First past the post |
44% |
44% |
40% |
52% |
24% |
| Don’t know |
7% |
8% |
5% |
5% |
1% |
Of the three voting options given, 44% favoured “first past the post”, 25% optional preferential and 23% the current preferential system – almost no change since the question was last asked in July 2011.
Optional preferential was most preferred by those aged under 35 (30%) while older groups strongly favoured first past the post (52% of aged 45+).
“First past the post” was preferred by 52% Liberal/National voters and 43% of Greens voters preferred optional preferential.
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