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  • Jan, 2013

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    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    Sample size = 1,878 respondents

    First preference/leaning to

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago

    17/12/12

    This week

    14/01/13

    Liberal

    45%

    44%

    National

    3%

    4%

    Total Lib/Nat

    43.6%

    48%

    48%

    Labor

    38.0%

    36%

    36%

    Greens

    11.8%

    8%

    8%

    Other/Independent

    6.6%

    8%

    8%

     

    2PP

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago

    This week

    Total Lib/Nat

    49.9%

    55%

    54%

    Labor

    50.1%

    45%

    46%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

  • Jan, 2013

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    Approval of Julia Gillard

    Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

     

    19 Jul 2010

    20 Dec

    14 Mar

    2011

    14 June

    12 Sept

    12 Dec

    12 Mar 2012

    12 Jun

    10 Sept

    10 Dec

    14 Jan 2013

    Total approve

    52%

    43%

    41%

    34%

    28%

    34%

    32%

    32%

    35%

    37%

    41%

    Total disapprove

    30%

    40%

    46%

    54%

    64%

    54%

    61%

    56%

    54%

    53%

    49%

    Strongly approve

    11%

    10%

    7%

    6%

    5%

    6%

    8%

    6%

    7%

    10%

    9%

    Approve

    41%

    33%

    34%

    28%

    23%

    28%

    24%

    26%

    28%

    27%

    32%

    Disapprove

    17%

    24%

    22%

    29%

    28%

    25%

    29%

    22%

    27%

    25%

    23%

    Strongly disapprove

    13%

    16%

    24%

    25%

    36%

    29%

    32%

    34%

    27%

    28%

    26%

    Don’t know

    18%

    17%

    13%

    13%

    8%

    11%

    7%

    12%

    11%

    11%

    10%

    41% (up 4%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 49% (down 4%) disapprove – an 8-point change in net rating from -16 to -8.

    87% of Labor voters approve (up 5%) and 7% disapprove (down 6%).

    By gender – men 40% approve/53% disapprove, women 42% approve/45% disapprove.  In net terms this represents an improvement with men from -21 to -13 and with women from -10 to -3.

  • Jan, 2013

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    Approval of Tony Abbott

    Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

     

    18 Jan

    2010

    5 Jul

     

    20 Dec

    14 Mar

    2011

    14 June

    12 Sept

    12 Dec

    12 Mar 2012

    12 Jun

    10 Sept

    10 Dec

    14 Jan 2013

    Total approve

    37%

    37%

    39%

    38%

    38%

    39%

    32%

    36%

    32%

    32%

    33%

    33%

    Total disapprove

    37%

    47%

    39%

    47%

    48%

    50%

    53%

    52%

    54%

    55%

    56%

    57%

    Strongly approve

    5%

    8%

    9%

    7%

    6%

    8%

    6%

    7%

    6%

    6%

    8%

    8%

    Approve

    32%

    29%

    30%

    31%

    32%

    31%

    26%

    29%

    26%

    26%

    25%

    25%

    Disapprove

    20%

    23%

    21%

    24%

    25%

    23%

    25%

    23%

    24%

    26%

    25%

    27%

    Strongly disapprove

    17%

    24%

    18%

    23%

    23%

    27%

    28%

    29%

    30%

    29%

    31%

    30%

    Don’t know

    26%

    16%

    22%

    16%

    15%

    11%

    14%

    12%

    13%

    13%

    12%

    10%

    33% (no change) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 57% (up 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -23 to -24 over the last 5 weeks.

    62% (down 1%) of Coalition voters approve and 31% (up 1%) disapprove.

    By gender – men 38% approve/53% disapprove, women 29% approve/60% disapprove. In net terms this represents a shift with men from -18 to -15 and with women from -28 to -31.

  • Jan, 2013

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    Better Prime Minister

    Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

     

    5 Jul 2010

    14 Mar 2011

    14 June

    12 Sept

    12 Dec

    12 Mar 2012

    12 Jun

    10 Sept

    10 Dec

    14 Jan 2013

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Julia Gillard

    53%

    44%

    41%

    36%

    39%

    40%

    37%

    40%

    43%

    42%

    89%

    5%

    84%

    Tony Abbott

    26%

    33%

    36%

    40%

    35%

    37%

    37%

    37%

    34%

    33%

    1%

    73%

    3%

    Don’t know

    21%

    23%

    24%

    24%

    26%

    23%

    26%

    24%

    23%

    24%

    10%

    22%

    14%

    42% (down 1%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 33% (down 1%) prefer Tony Abbott.

    Men prefer Julia Gillard 39%/38% and women prefer Julia Gillard 46%/29%.

  • Jan, 2013

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    Voluntary voting

    Q. Voting in Federal and State elections in Australia is compulsory. Would you support or oppose making voting voluntary at Federal and State elections?

     

    Total

     

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Support

    40%

    34%

    43%

    40%

    Oppose

    49%

    56%

    49%

    53%

    Don’t know

    11%

    9%

    8%

    8%

    40% support making voting voluntary at Federal and State elections and 49% oppose.

    Highest support for voluntary voting was shown by Liberal/National voters (43%), respondents who don’t know which party they would vote for (48%), full-time workers (45%) and respondents aged 25-34 (49%).

    Highest opposition to voluntary voting was shown by Labor voters (56%), and respondents aged 55+ (58%).

  • Jan, 2013

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    Likelihood of voting

    Q. If voting at elections was voluntary, how likely would you be to vote in the next Federal election?

     

    Total

     

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Would definitely vote

    58%

    61%

    67%

    67%

    Would probably vote

    25%

    25%

    23%

    23%

    Probably wouldn’t vote

    9%

    8%

    5%

    4%

    Definitely wouldn’t vote

    4%

    4%

    2%

    2%

    Don’t know

    5%

    2%

    3%

    3%

    If voting at elections was voluntary, 83% said they would definitely or probably vote in the next Federal election – 13% said they would probably or definitely not vote.

    Those least likely to vote were aged under 45 (17%) and respondents who did not know which party they would vote for (38%).

  • Jan, 2013

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    Voting age

    Q. Would you support or oppose lowering the voting age from 18 to 16?

     

    Total

     

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Support

    13%

    17%

    10%

    24%

    Oppose

    78%

    71%

    85%

    64%

    No opinion

    9%

    11%

    4%

    12%

    Only 13% support lowering the voting age from 18 years to 16 years and 78% oppose.

    Support was highest among Greens voters (24%) and respondents aged 25-34 (25%).

  • Jan, 2013

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    Preferred voting system

    Q. Which of the following voting systems would you prefer when voting for the Federal House of Representatives.

    • A preferential voting system where voters rank all candidates in order of preference.
    • An optional preferential system where voters can rank one, some, or all candidates in order of preference.
    • A “first past the post” system, where voters only vote for one candidate and the candidate with the most votes wins.
     

    11 Jul 11

    Total

    14 Jan 13

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Preferential

    22%

    23%

    29%

    20%

    32%

    Optional preferential

    26%

    25%

    26%

    23%

    43%

    First past the post

    44%

    44%

    40%

    52%

    24%

    Don’t know

    7%

    8%

    5%

    5%

    1%

    Of the three voting options given, 44% favoured “first past the post”, 25% optional preferential and 23% the current preferential system – almost no change since the question was last asked in July 2011.

    Optional preferential was most preferred by those aged under 35 (30%) while older groups strongly favoured first past the post (52% of aged 45+).

    “First past the post” was preferred by 52% Liberal/National voters and 43% of Greens voters preferred optional preferential.

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