Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other | Nov 2013 | Dec 2014 | Dec 2015 | Mar 2016 | 14 Jun 2016 | 28 Jun 2016 | |||
| Total approve | 39% | 78% | 18% | 40% | 23% | 31% | 35% | 27% | 27% | 34% | 37% | ||
| Total disapprove | 41% | 10% | 67% | 36% | 66% | 27% | 39% | 47% | 47% | 40% | 39% | ||
| Strongly approve | 11% | 27% | 2% | 9% | 1% | 5% | 7% | 4% | 3% | 7% | 8% | ||
| Approve | 28% | 51% | 16% | 31% | 22% | 26% | 28% | 23% | 24% | 27% | 29% | ||
| Disapprove | 21% | 9% | 26% | 28% | 38% | 17% | 23% | 26% | 29% | 22% | 23% | ||
| Strongly disapprove | 20% | 1% | 41% | 8% | 28% | 10% | 16% | 21% | 18% | 18% | 16% | ||
| Don’t know | 20% | 13% | 16% | 23% | 11% | 43% | 26% | 25% | 26% | 25% | 24% |
39% (up 2% in last 2 weeks) of respondents approve of the job Bill Shorten is doing as opposition leader and 41% (up 2%) disapprove – no change in his net rating of -2.
78% (up 4%) of Labor voters approve of the job Bill Shorten is doing and 10% (no change) disapprove.
43% of men and 35% of women approve of Bill Shorten. 41% of men and 41% of women disapprove.
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other | Sep 2015 | Dec 2015 | Mar 2016 | 14 Jun 2016 | 28 Jun 2016 | |||
| Malcolm Turnbull | 39% | 6% | 80% | 21% | 35% | 53% | 54% | 48% | 40% | 40% | ||
| Bill Shorten | 31% | 73% | 3% | 44% | 17% | 17% | 15% | 19% | 29% | 29% | ||
| Don’t know | 30% | 22% | 16% | 35% | 49% | 30% | 31% | 33% | 32% | 30% |
39% (down 1% in last 2 weeks) of respondents think Malcolm Turnbull would make the better Prime Minister and 31% (up 2%) think Bill Shorten would make the better Prime Minister.
42% of men prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 34% prefer Bill Shorten.
35% of women prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 29% prefer Bill Shorten.
Q. If neither the Liberal National coalition nor the Labor Party wins a majority in the election, which of the following would you prefer to form Government?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other | ||
| Liberal National coalition with minor parties and independents | 33% | 4% | 70% | 13% | 31% | |
| Labor with minor parties and independents | 36% | 76% | 4% | 62% | 26% | |
| Neither – hold a new election | 21% | 16% | 20% | 19% | 35% | |
| Don’t know | 11% | 4% | 6% | 6% | 8% |
If neither the Liberal National coalition nor the Labor Party wins a majority in the election, 36% would prefer Labor to form a Government with the minor parties and independents and 33% would prefer the Coalition to form a Government with the minor parties and independents.
21% favour a new election.
62% of Greens voters prefer a Labor-led Government while 35% of other voters think there should be a new election.
Q. How likely is it that Australia will need to have another Federal election within the next 12 months?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other | ||
| Total likely | 51% | 60% | 50% | 46% | 53% | |
| Total not likely | 28% | 21% | 36% | 28% | 29% | |
| Very likely | 17% | 20% | 17% | 12% | 19% | |
| Quite likely | 34% | 40% | 33% | 34% | 34% | |
| Not very likely | 20% | 17% | 26% | 23% | 16% | |
| Not at all likely | 8% | 4% | 10% | 5% | 13% | |
| Don’t know | 21% | 19% | 14% | 26% | 18% |
51% think that it is likely Australia will have another Federal election within the next 12 months and 28% think it is not likely.
60% of Labor voters and 50% of Liberal/National voters think it is likely.
Q. Do you think people of the same sex should or should not be allowed to marry?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other | Nov 2010 | Jul 2011 | Sep 2012 | Oct 2013 | Jun 2014 | Oct 2015 | Mar 2016 | |||
| Should be allowed to marry | 58% | 67% | 50% | 91% | 46% | 53% | 54% | 55% | 57% | 60% | 59% | 64% | ||
| Should not be allowed to marry | 28% | 22% | 37% | 7% | 47% | 36% | 35% | 36% | 31% | 28% | 30% | 26% | ||
| Don’t know | 14% | 11% | 14% | 2% | 7% | 11% | 11% | 9% | 12% | 12% | 11% | 10% |
58% agreed that people of the same sex should be allowed to marry and 28% think they should not. This is a 6% drop in support since March but similar to average level of support over the last 3 years.
Support for same sex marriage is 54% among men and 62% among women. 67% of under 35’s support same sex marriage – while those aged 65+ split 40% in favour/49% against.
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
| Total | Last week
28/6/16 |
2 weeks ago
21/6/16 |
4 weeks ago
7/6/16 |
Election 7 Sep 13 | |||
| Liberal | 38% | 37% | 37% | 37% | |||
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% | |||
| Total Liberal/National | 41% | 39% | 40% | 41% | 45.6% | ||
| Labor | 37% | 37% | 37% | 36% | 33.4% | ||
| Greens | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 8.6% | ||
| Nick Xenophon Team | 2% | 4% | 4% | 4% | – | ||
| Other/Independent | 10% | 10% | 9% | 10% | 12.4% | ||
| 2 party preferred | |||||||
| Liberal National | 50% | 49% | 49% | 50% | 53.5% | ||
| Labor | 50% | 51% | 51% | 50% | 46.5% |
Sample = 1,723. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.
Q. When did you make your decision about which party to vote for in the Federal election?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other | 2013 election | |||
| More than 4 weeks before the election | 54% | 51% | 62% | 57% | 46% | 66% | ||
| 2-4 weeks before the election | 15% | 18% | 13% | 12% | 18% | 13% | ||
| In the last week before the election | 14% | 15% | 12% | 15% | 13% | 10% | ||
| The day before the election | 4% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 1% | 4% | ||
| The day of the election but before I went to vote | 3% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 1% | ||
| When I got to the polling booth | 4% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 10% | 3% | ||
| Don’t know | 6% | 8% | 3% | 4% | 9% | 2% |
54% made up their mind about which party to vote for more than 4 weeks before the election. 33% made up their mind during the election campaign and 7% on election day.
Liberal/National voters were more likely to have decided more than 4 weeks before the election compared to 51% of Labor voters. 37% of Labor voters made their decision during the election campaign compared to 29% of Liberal/National voters.
Q. Which ever party wins the election, what should be the main priorities for the new Government? (up to 3)
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other | ||
| Invest more in hospitals and health services | 45% | 54% | 38% | 39% | 49% | |
| Invest more in education | 26% | 32% | 21% | 30% | 24% | |
| Cut spending to reduce the deficit | 24% | 10% | 46% | 5% | 16% | |
| Ensuring big businesses pay their fair share of tax | 22% | 25% | 19% | 18% | 32% | |
| Do more to address unemployment | 18% | 22% | 13% | 18% | 21% | |
| Legalise same sex marriage | 15% | 17% | 10% | 36% | 15% | |
| Invest more in infrastructure e.g. rail and roads | 14% | 9% | 22% | 8% | 11% | |
| Invest more in renewable energy | 13% | 12% | 10% | 36% | 15% | |
| Do more to address climate change | 12% | 14% | 6% | 35% | 8% | |
| Build the NBN | 12% | 15% | 11% | 12% | 10% | |
| Do more to assist first home buyers | 9% | 10% | 8% | 10% | 13% | |
| More support for local industries | 9% | 6% | 13% | 3% | 9% |
The main priorities for the new Government are investing in hospitals and health, investing in education and cutting the deficit.
Liberal/National voters are more likely to want the Government to cut the deficit (46%), invest in health and hospitals (38%) and invest in infrastructure (22%).
Labor voters are more likely to want the Government to invest in health and hospitals (54%), invest in education (32%) and ensure big businesses pay their share of tax (25%).