Q. If neither the Liberal National coalition nor the Labor Party wins a majority in the election, which of the following combinations of parties would you prefer to form Government?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other | ||
| Liberal National coalition with the Greens and independents | 8% | 1% | 19% | 3% | 4% | |
| Labor with the Greens and independents | 24% | 44% | 4% | 72% | 12% | |
| Liberal National coalition and Nick Xenophon Team and independents | 17% | 1% | 38% | 3% | 15% | |
| Labor with Nick Xenophon Team and independents | 13% | 27% | 1% | 8% | 28% | |
| None of them – hold a new election | 19% | 11% | 26% | 6% | 26% | |
| Don’t know | 18% | 15% | 11% | 7% | 15% |
If there is a hung Parliament the most favoured option is for a coalition of Labor with the Greens and independents (24%). 17% favour a coalition of the Liberals and Nationals with the Nick Xenophon Team and independents.
19% of respondents would prefer a new election – including 26% of Liberal/National voters.
Q. If yet to vote – To which party will you probably give your first preference vote in the Federal election being held this Saturday? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
If already voted – Which party did you give your first preference to?
| Total | Have voted | Have not voted | Last week
28/6/16 |
2 weeks ago
21/6/16 |
4 weeks ago
7/6/16 |
Election 7 Sep 13 | |||
| Liberal/LNP | 39.5% | 41% | 39% | 37% | 37% | 37% | |||
| National | 3% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 4% | |||
| Total Liberal/National | 42.5% | 45% | 41% | 39% | 40% | 41% | 45.6% | ||
| Labor | 34.5% | 33% | 35% | 37% | 37% | 36% | 33.4% | ||
| Greens | 11.5% | 10% | 12% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 8.6% | ||
| Nick Xenophon Team | 1.5% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 4% | 4% | – | ||
| Other/Independent | 10.5% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 10% | 12.4% | ||
| 2 party preferred | |||||||||
| Liberal National | 50.5% | 54% | 49% | 49% | 49% | 50% | 53.5% | ||
| Labor | 49.5% | 46% | 51% | 51% | 51% | 50% | 46.5% |
NB: Respondents who selected ‘don’t know’ or who were not enrolled to vote are not included in the results. Total percentages have been rounded to the nearest half per cent. The two-party preferred estimate has been calculated by distributing the votes of other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election. Nick Xenophon Team was only included for SA respondents. 22% of enrolled respondents said they had already voted.
Q. If yet to vote – Which party would you give your next preference to – out of the Liberal Party and the Labor Party.
If already voted – Which party did you give your next preference to – out of the Liberal Party and the Labor Party.
| Total | Vote Greens | Vote other | Vote Greens (excluding don’t know) | Vote other (excluding don’t know) | Vote Greens
2013 election |
Vote other
2013 election |
||||
| Liberal Party | 24% | 16% | 31% | 20% | 44% | 17% | 55% | |||
| Labor Party | 52% | 66% | 39% | 80% | 56% | 83% | 45% | |||
| Don’t know | 24% | 18% | 30% | – | – | – | – |
24% of minor parties and independent voters say they will preference the Liberals and 52% say they will preference Labor. 24% don’t know which party they will preference.
Excluding the “don’t knows”, Labor receives 80% of preferences of Greens voters and 56% of the preferences of other voters.
Q. Which leader and party do you think has performed best during the Federal election campaign?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other | Last week | |||
| Malcolm Turnbull and the Liberal Party | 38% | 6% | 79% | 12% | 32% | 30% | ||
| Bill Shorten and the Labor Party | 29% | 72% | 4% | 17% | 25% | 28% | ||
| Richard di Natale and the Greens. | 6% | 1% | 1% | 46% | 6% | 8% | ||
| Don’t know | 27% | 22% | 15% | 25% | 37% | 34% |
38% think that Malcolm Turnbull and the Liberal Party performed best during the election campaign and 29% think Bill Shorten and the Labor Party preformed best.
Opinions mainly reflected party preferences. 79% of Liberal/National voters thought Malcolm Turnbull performed best while 72% of Labor voters thought Bill Shorten performed best.
Q. Which party do you expect will win the Federal election?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other | Last week | |||
| Liberal National Coalition | 48% | 19% | 84% | 35% | 38% | 39% | ||
| Labor Party | 21% | 52% | 3% | 16% | 11% | 24% | ||
| Neither – there will be a hung Parliament | 15% | 13% | 5% | 38% | 35% | 16% | ||
| Don’t know | 17% | 16% | 8% | 12% | 16% | 21% |
48% think that the Coalition will win the election, 21% think the Labor Party will win and 15% think there will be a hung Parliament.
84% of Liberal National voters think the Coalition will win and 52% of Labor voters think the Labor Party will win.
38% of Greens voters and 35% of other voters think there will be a hung Parliament.
There has been a significant shift to the Coalition winning over the last week.
Q. Do you think the recent vote for the United Kingdom to leave the European Union will be good or bad for the Australian economy or will it make no difference?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other | ||
| Good for Australian economy | 14% | 13% | 17% | 13% | 16% | |
| Bad for Australian economy | 26% | 29% | 22% | 46% | 19% | |
| Will make no difference | 34% | 31% | 39% | 23% | 48% | |
| Don’t know | 25% | 27% | 21% | 18% | 17% |
26% think that the recent vote for the United Kingdom to leave the European Union
Q. Does the recent vote for the United Kingdom to leave the European Union make you more likely to vote Liberal or more likely to vote Labor in the Federal election – or does it make no difference to your vote?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other | ||
| More likely to vote Liberal | 15% | 2% | 35% | 4% | 6% | |
| More likely to vote Labor | 11% | 25% | 1% | 21% | 8% | |
| Makes no difference | 64% | 66% | 58% | 70% | 83% | |
| Don’t know | 9% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 3% |
15% say the recent vote for the United Kingdom to leave the European Union has made them more likely to vote Liberal and 11% say it has made them more likely to vote Labor. 64% say it makes no difference.
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
| Total | Last week
21/6/16 |
2 weeks ago
14/6/16 |
4 weeks ago
31/5/16 |
Election 7 Sep 13 | |||
| Liberal | 37% | 37% | 37% | 38% | |||
| National | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | |||
| Total Liberal/National | 39% | 40% | 41% | 41% | 45.6% | ||
| Labor | 37% | 37% | 37% | 35% | 33.4% | ||
| Greens | 10% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 8.6% | ||
| Nick Xenophon Team | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | – | ||
| Other/Independent | 10% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 12.4% | ||
| 2 party preferred | |||||||
| Liberal National | 49% | 49% | 49% | 51% | 53.5% | ||
| Labor | 51% | 51% | 51% | 49% | 46.5% |
Sample = 1,773. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.