28 August 2012, 280812, 2PP, first preference vote, two party preferred
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,803 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 30/7/12 |
2 weeks ago 13/8/12 |
Last week 20/8/12 |
This week 27/8/12 |
| Liberal |
|
45% |
46% |
46% |
46% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
49% |
49% |
49% |
49% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
33% |
32% |
32% |
32% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
8% |
8% |
9% |
9% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
55% |
56% |
57% |
56% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
45% |
44% |
43% |
44% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
28 August 2012, 280812, Australian economy, better or worse, economic conditions
Q. Over the next 12 months do you think economic conditions in Australia will get better, get worse or stay much the same?
|
1 Dec 08 |
15 Jun 09 |
5 Oct 09 |
28 Jun 10 |
18 Oct 10 |
4 Apr 11 |
4 Jul 11 |
3 Oct 11 |
26 Mar 12 |
7 May 12 |
Total 27 Aug 12 |
Vote ALP |
Vote Lib/ Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total better |
21% |
43% |
66% |
33% |
40% |
27% |
22% |
16% |
25% |
23% |
22% |
34% |
18% |
23% |
| Total worse |
61% |
37% |
15% |
31% |
30% |
37% |
49% |
58% |
46% |
46% |
45% |
31% |
57% |
40% |
| Get a lot better |
2% |
5% |
8% |
5% |
6% |
4% |
3% |
2% |
3% |
2% |
3% |
7% |
2% |
2% |
| Get a little better |
19% |
38% |
58% |
28% |
34% |
23% |
19% |
14% |
22% |
21% |
19% |
27% |
16% |
21% |
| Get a little worse |
45% |
28% |
11% |
23% |
20% |
27% |
31% |
41% |
31% |
31% |
30% |
22% |
35% |
32% |
| Get a lot worse |
16% |
9% |
4% |
8% |
10% |
10% |
18% |
17% |
15% |
15% |
15% |
9% |
22% |
8% |
| Stay much the same |
13% |
17% |
15% |
30% |
24% |
27% |
25% |
22% |
21% |
25% |
27% |
30% |
23% |
29% |
| No opinion |
5% |
3% |
4% |
7% |
6% |
8% |
4% |
4% |
7% |
6% |
6% |
5% |
2% |
7% |
Confidence in the economic outlook has shown little change since May. The percentage of respondents believing conditions to be getting better declined a point to 22% and those believing that economic conditions will get worse over the next 12 months dropped a point to 45%. 27% think things will stay much the same (up 2 points).
Labor voters were the most optimistic overall – 34% better/31% worse. Coalition voters are the most pessimistic, with 57% believing that thing will get worse over the next 12 months and only 18% better.
Men (28% better/42% worse) were a little more optimistic than women (16% better/47% worse).
28 August 2012, 280812, better or worse, Personal financial situation
Q. Over the next 12 months do you think your personal financial situation will get better, get worse or stay much the same?
|
28 Jun 10 |
18 Oct 10 |
4 April 11 |
4 Jul 11 |
3 Oct 11 |
26 Mar 12 |
Total 27 Aug 12 |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total better |
29% |
33% |
32% |
28% |
24% |
28% |
29% |
36% |
23% |
39% |
| Total worse |
31% |
29% |
31% |
36% |
41% |
37% |
37% |
29% |
44% |
29% |
| Get a lot better |
5% |
6% |
7% |
5% |
4% |
5% |
6% |
8% |
4% |
9% |
| Get a little better |
24% |
27% |
25% |
23% |
20% |
23% |
23% |
28% |
19% |
30% |
| Get a little worse |
21% |
21% |
22% |
23% |
27% |
27% |
26% |
19% |
33% |
17% |
| Get a lot worse |
10% |
8% |
9% |
13% |
14% |
10% |
11% |
10% |
11% |
12% |
| Stay much the same |
37% |
32% |
32% |
32% |
32% |
29% |
30% |
32% |
31% |
27% |
| No opinion |
4% |
5% |
5% |
3% |
3% |
5% |
5% |
3% |
3% |
5% |
29% (up 1% since March) of respondents believe that their personal financial situation will get better in the next 12 months and 37% worse (no change). 30% (up 1%) expect it to stay much the same.
Greens voters (39% better) and Labor voters (36%) are the most likely to believe that their personal financial situation will get better over the next 12 months, whereas Coalition voters are the most likely to believe that theirs will get worse (44%).
People on lower incomes were more pessimistic about their personal financial outlook – those earning under $600 per week split 23% better/48% worse – compared to those earning more than $1,600pw who split 38% better/29% worse.
28 August 2012, 280812, immediate family, job cuts, job loss
Q. How concerned are you that you or some member of your immediate family will lose their job in the next year or so: very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not at all concerned?
|
|
8 Jun 09 |
5 Oct 09 |
28 Jun 10 |
18 Oct 10 |
4 Apr 11 |
4 Jul 11 |
3 Oct 11 |
26 Mar 12 |
Total 27 Aug 12 |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
| Total concerned |
52% |
49% |
43% |
40% |
43% |
45% |
47% |
49% |
47% |
44% |
52% |
43% |
| Very concerned |
13% |
14% |
9% |
11% |
11% |
13% |
14% |
13% |
13% |
10% |
14% |
14% |
| Somewhat concerned |
39% |
35% |
34% |
29% |
32% |
32% |
33% |
36% |
34% |
34% |
38% |
29% |
| Not at all concerned |
35% |
40% |
38% |
42% |
43% |
39% |
37% |
36% |
37% |
42% |
35% |
43% |
| Don’t know |
6% |
6% |
12% |
10% |
8% |
8% |
7% |
8% |
8% |
8% |
5% |
7% |
| No employees in the immediate family |
8% |
5% |
7% |
7% |
7% |
7% |
7% |
7% |
7% |
7% |
7% |
7% |
Concern over job security has fallen slightly since the last time the question was polled, declining 2 points up from 49% in March to 47% (total concerned).
Coalition voters are the most likely to be concerned that they or a member of their immediately family will lose their job in the next year or so (52% total concerned), whereas Greens (43%) and Labor voters (44%) are less likely to be concerned.
There were no major differences across income or age groups – except for the under 25’s where 43% were concerned and 48% not at all concerned.
28 August 2012, 280812, better or worse off, Coalition, financial situation, Liberals, Tony Abbott as Prime Minister
Q. Do you think you personally would be better off or worse off financially if Tony Abbott and the Liberals were in Government?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total better off |
30% |
4% |
64% |
6% |
| Total worse off |
32% |
69% |
3% |
52% |
| A lot better off |
10% |
1% |
22% |
– |
| A little better off |
20% |
3% |
42% |
6% |
| Make no difference |
24% |
18% |
27% |
21% |
| A little worse off |
10% |
19% |
2% |
11% |
| A lot worse off |
22% |
50% |
1% |
41% |
| No opinion |
14% |
9% |
6% |
21% |
30% of respondents think they would be personally better off financially if the Liberals were in Government and 32% think they would be financially worse off. 24% think it would make no difference to them financially.
Respondents aged 45-64 thought they would be more likely to be worse off (32% better/40% worse) while for those aged 65+, 47% thought they would be better off and 24% worse off.
28 August 2012, 280812, Government support, manufacturing industry
Q. Thinking about the Australian manufacturing industry, which of the following statements is closest to your view?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| With Government support, Australia can have a successful manufacturing industry |
63% |
67% |
63% |
68% |
| There is no future for manufacturing in Australia and Government support would be a waste of money |
17% |
15% |
21% |
14% |
| Don’t know |
21% |
18% |
16% |
18% |
63% agreed that “with Government support, Australia can have a successful manufacturing industry” and 17% agreed that “there is no future for manufacturing in Australia and Government support would be a waste of money”.
There was little difference by voting intention. Older respondents were more supportive of manufacturing than younger respondents – 68% of those aged 55+ agreed that “with Government support, Australia can have a successful manufacturing industry” compared to 55% of those aged 18-34.
28 August 2012, 280812, Australian materials, manufacturing industry, overseas competition, tax revenue
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the following types of Government support and assistance for Australia’s manufacturing industry?
|
Total approve |
Total disapprove |
Strongly approve |
Approve |
Disapprove |
Strongly disapprove |
Don’t know |
|
| Lower tax rates for Australian manufacturers, even though it would reduce tax revenue. |
55% |
23% |
10% |
45% |
18% |
5% |
22% |
| More direct subsidies and grants to manufacturers from taxpayers. |
35% |
41% |
4% |
31% |
30% |
11% |
24% |
| Take action to force down the Australian dollar |
25% |
46% |
6% |
19% |
32% |
14% |
28% |
| Protection from overseas competition |
66% |
20% |
25% |
41% |
15% |
5% |
13% |
| Joint ventures and partnerships between Government and manufacturing companies |
67% |
17% |
13% |
54% |
12% |
5% |
17% |
| Giving preference to Australian companies when purchasing manufactured products – even if they cost a little more |
78% |
11% |
29% |
49% |
9% |
2% |
12% |
| Governments bringing forward major infrastructure projects with greater preference for Australian materials and products |
82% |
7% |
33% |
49% |
6% |
1% |
11% |
| Require major project builders to give preference to Australian companies |
77% |
11% |
32% |
45% |
9% |
2% |
13% |
| Building more of our major defence requirements here in Australia |
77% |
8% |
33% |
44% |
6% |
2% |
15% |
There was very strong support for bringing forward major infrastructure projects with greater preference for Australian materials and products (82%), giving preference to Australian companies when purchasing manufactured products (78%), building more of our major defence requirements in Australia (77%) and requiring major project builders to give preference to Australian companies (77%).
Respondents were more likely to disapprove of forcing down the Australian dollar (46%) and more direct subsidies and grants to manufacturers from taxpayers (41%).
28 August 2012, 280812, Australian people, better or worse service, job cuts, public service jobs
Q. The Liberal and National Parties have said they will cut between $50 billion and $70 billion from the Commonwealth public sector if they win the next election and the Treasurer Joe Hockey has said at least 12,000 jobs will be cut.
Do you think cutting at least 12,000 jobs from the Commonwealth public sector will result in better or worse service to the people of Australia?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total better service |
14% |
7% |
25% |
3% |
| Total worse service |
53% |
77% |
31% |
74% |
| Much better service |
6% |
1% |
13% |
1% |
| A little better service |
8% |
6% |
12% |
2% |
| Make no difference |
23% |
10% |
37% |
12% |
| A little worse service |
19% |
19% |
19% |
19% |
| Much worse service |
34% |
58% |
12% |
55% |
| Don’t know |
10% |
6% |
8% |
12% |
53% thought that cutting 12,000 jobs from the Commonwealth public sector would result in worse service and 14% thought it result in better service. 23% thought it would make no difference.
Those mostly likely to think it would result in worse service were aged 18-24 (64%), Labor voters (77%), Greens voters (74%) and those on incomes under $600pw (62%). Only 31% of Liberal/National voters thought it would result in worse service.