12 November 2012, 121112, 2PP, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,905 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 15/10/12 |
2 weeks ago 29/10/12 |
Last week 7/11/12 |
This week 12/11/12 |
| Liberal |
|
44% |
44% |
43% |
42% |
| National |
|
3% |
4% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
47% |
48% |
46% |
45% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
36% |
36% |
37% |
37% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
8% |
7% |
8% |
8% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
53% |
54% |
53% |
52% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
47% |
46% |
47% |
48% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
12 November 2012, 121112, Approval of Julia Gillard, approval of PM, Julia Gillard
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
|
|
19 Jul 2010 |
20 Dec |
14 Mar 2011 |
14 June |
12 Sept |
12 Dec |
12 Mar 2012 |
12 Jun |
10 Sept |
15 Oct |
12 Nov |
| Total approve |
52% |
43% |
41% |
34% |
28% |
34% |
32% |
32% |
35% |
41% |
41% |
| Total disapprove |
30% |
40% |
46% |
54% |
64% |
54% |
61% |
56% |
54% |
51% |
49% |
| Strongly approve |
11% |
10% |
7% |
6% |
5% |
6% |
8% |
6% |
7% |
9% |
7% |
| Approve |
41% |
33% |
34% |
28% |
23% |
28% |
24% |
26% |
28% |
32% |
34% |
| Disapprove |
17% |
24% |
22% |
29% |
28% |
25% |
29% |
22% |
27% |
24% |
25% |
| Strongly disapprove |
13% |
16% |
24% |
25% |
36% |
29% |
32% |
34% |
27% |
27% |
24% |
| Don’t know |
18% |
17% |
13% |
13% |
8% |
11% |
7% |
12% |
11% |
8% |
10% |
41% (no change) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 49% (down 2%) disapprove – a 2-point change in net rating from -10 to -8. This is Julia Gillard’s best approval rating since May 2011.
85% of Labor voters approve (down 2%) and 8% disapprove (down 1%).
By gender – men 37% approve/53% disapprove, women 44% approve/44% disapprove. In net terms this represents a decline with men from -14 to -16 and an improvement with women from -4 to 0.
12 November 2012, 121112, Abbott, Abbott approval, Approval of opposition leader
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
|
18 Jan 2010 |
5 Jul
|
20 Dec |
14 Mar 2011 |
14 June |
12 Sept |
12 Dec |
12 Mar 2012 |
12 Jun |
10 Sept |
15 Oct |
12 Nov |
|
| Total approve |
37% |
37% |
39% |
38% |
38% |
39% |
32% |
36% |
32% |
32% |
37% |
33% |
| Total disapprove |
37% |
47% |
39% |
47% |
48% |
50% |
53% |
52% |
54% |
55% |
54% |
58% |
| Strongly approve |
5% |
8% |
9% |
7% |
6% |
8% |
6% |
7% |
6% |
6% |
9% |
6% |
| Approve |
32% |
29% |
30% |
31% |
32% |
31% |
26% |
29% |
26% |
26% |
28% |
27% |
| Disapprove |
20% |
23% |
21% |
24% |
25% |
23% |
25% |
23% |
24% |
26% |
23% |
28% |
| Strongly disapprove |
17% |
24% |
18% |
23% |
23% |
27% |
28% |
29% |
30% |
29% |
31% |
30% |
| Don’t know |
26% |
16% |
22% |
16% |
15% |
11% |
14% |
12% |
13% |
13% |
9% |
10% |
Tony Abbott’s approval rating has dropped over the last month. 33% (down 4%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 58% (up 4%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -17 to -25 over the last 4 weeks. This is Tony Abbott’s lowest rating since he became Opposition Leader.
65% (down 9%) of Coalition voters approve and 29% (up 7%) disapprove.
By gender – men 36% approve/56% disapprove, women 29% approve/59% disapprove. In net terms this represents a decline with men from -16 to -20 and with women from -19 to -30.
12 November 2012, 121112, Better PM, Julia Gillard, tony abbott
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
|
5 Jul 2010 |
14 Mar 2011 |
14 June |
12 Sept |
12 Dec |
12 Mar 2012 |
12 Jun |
10 Sept |
15 Oct |
12 Nov |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Julia Gillard |
53% |
44% |
41% |
36% |
39% |
40% |
37% |
40% |
43% |
45% |
86% |
6% |
81% |
| Tony Abbott |
26% |
33% |
36% |
40% |
35% |
37% |
37% |
37% |
36% |
32% |
4% |
71% |
4% |
| Don’t know |
21% |
23% |
24% |
24% |
26% |
23% |
26% |
24% |
20% |
23% |
10% |
23% |
15% |
45% (up 2%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 32% (down 4%) prefer Tony Abbott. This is Julia Gillard’s best result since February 2011.
Men prefer Julia Gillard 40%/36% and women prefer Julia Gillard 49%/28%. Compared to last month’s figures, Julia Gillard’s margin over Tony Abbott has changed 4 points in her favour among men (from 40%/40%) and 7 points among women (from 47%/33%).
12 November 2012, 121112, Aged Care, Gonski, Murray river, National Disability Insurance Scheme, ndis, water for the Murray
Q. The Federal Government are proposing to implement a number of reforms , which will require funding of billions of dollars. Which of the following reforms do you think is most important?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| National disability insurance scheme |
16% |
20% |
16% |
10% |
| Extra school funding recommended by the Gonski Review |
31% |
35% |
28% |
41% |
| Increased resources for aged care |
29% |
25% |
37% |
20% |
| Returning water to the Murray River |
12% |
12% |
9% |
18% |
| Don’t know |
12% |
8% |
10% |
9% |
31% think that the Government’s most important proposed reform is extra school funding as recommended by the Gonski Review and 29% favour increased resources for aged care.
Extra school, funding is supported more by Labor voters, (35%), Greens voters (41%) and those aged under 45 (40%).
Increased resources for aged care is favoured by Liberal/National voters (37%) and those aged 45+ (42%).
12 November 2012, 121112, family tax benefit, family trust tax, private health rebate, reduce baby bonus
Q. If the Government decided to reduce spending in other areas to pay for these reforms, which of the following options would you favour?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Reduce the Baby Bonus to $2000 or eliminate it for people earning over $75,000 |
53% |
52% |
56% |
55% |
| Eliminate Family Tax Benefit A for families earning over $75,000 |
13% |
15% |
12% |
12% |
| Increase taxation of family trusts |
13% |
16% |
12% |
14% |
| Remove the private health insurance rebate altogether |
4% |
4% |
4% |
6% |
| None of them |
11% |
7% |
14% |
1% |
| Don’t know |
6% |
6% |
2% |
11% |
53% favour reducing the Baby Bonus to $2000 or eliminating it for people earning over $75,000 if the Government decided to reduce spending to pay for reforms. More than half of all voter groups support this measure. It is favoured by 57% of women and 49% of men.
43% of those aged under 35 support it compared to 62% of those aged 45+.
Only 4% favour removing the private health insurance rebate altogether.
12 November 2012, 121112, extend GST, high income earners, increase GST, increase taxes
Q. If the Government decided to increase its revenue to pay for these reforms, which of the following options would you favour?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Increase income taxes for those on high incomes |
46% |
53% |
40% |
51% |
| Increase the GST rate to 11 or 12% |
10% |
11% |
12% |
14% |
| Extend the GST to goods and services like food and health which are currently exempt |
5% |
4% |
6% |
8% |
| Increase income taxes overall |
5% |
6% |
5% |
5% |
| None of them |
27% |
20% |
32% |
14% |
| Don’t know |
7% |
6% |
4% |
7% |
46% favour increasing income taxes for those on high incomes if the Government decided to increase its revenue to pay for reforms.
Increasing the GST rate (10%) has greater support than extending the GST to food and health (5%).
Increasing income taxes for those on high incomes is favoured by 53% of those earning less than $1,600 pw compared to 35% of those earning over $1,600 pw.