11 February 2013, 110213, 2PP, Labor, Liberal, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,897 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 14/1/13 |
2 weeks ago 29/1/13 |
Last week 5/02/13 |
This week 11/02/13 |
| Liberal |
|
44% |
44% |
45% |
45% |
| National |
|
4% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
48% |
48% |
48% |
48% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
36% |
35% |
34% |
34% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
8% |
10% |
10% |
9% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
8% |
7% |
8% |
9% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week
|
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
54% |
54% |
54% |
55% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
46% |
46% |
46% |
45% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
11 February 2013, 110213, Julia Gillard approval
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
|
|
19 |
20 |
14 |
14 June |
12 Sept |
12 Dec |
12 |
12 |
10 Sept |
10 |
14 |
11 |
| Total approve |
52% |
43% |
41% |
34% |
28% |
34% |
32% |
32% |
35% |
37% |
41% |
36% |
| Total disapprove |
30% |
40% |
46% |
54% |
64% |
54% |
61% |
56% |
54% |
53% |
49% |
55% |
| Strongly approve |
11% |
10% |
7% |
6% |
5% |
6% |
8% |
6% |
7% |
10% |
9% |
7% |
| Approve |
41% |
33% |
34% |
28% |
23% |
28% |
24% |
26% |
28% |
27% |
32% |
29% |
| Disapprove |
17% |
24% |
22% |
29% |
28% |
25% |
29% |
22% |
27% |
25% |
23% |
25% |
| Strongly disapprove |
13% |
16% |
24% |
25% |
36% |
29% |
32% |
34% |
27% |
28% |
26% |
30% |
| Don’t know |
18% |
17% |
13% |
13% |
8% |
11% |
7% |
12% |
11% |
11% |
10% |
9% |
36% (down 5%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 55% (up 6%) disapprove – an 11-point change in net rating from -8 to -19 over the last 4 weeks.
75% of Labor voters approve (down 12%) and 19% disapprove (up 12%).
By gender – men 34% approve/57% disapprove, women 38% approve/52% disapprove. In net terms this represents a decline with men from -13 to -23 and with women from -3 to -14.
11 February 2013, 110213, Approval of Tony Abbott
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
|
18 |
5 Jul
|
20 Dec |
14 Mar |
14 June |
12 Sept |
12 Dec |
12 Mar 12 |
12 |
10 Sept |
10 Dec |
14 |
11 Feb |
|
| Total approve |
37% |
37% |
39% |
38% |
38% |
39% |
32% |
36% |
32% |
32% |
33% |
33% |
36% |
| Total disapprove |
37% |
47% |
39% |
47% |
48% |
50% |
53% |
52% |
54% |
55% |
56% |
57% |
53% |
| Strongly approve |
5% |
8% |
9% |
7% |
6% |
8% |
6% |
7% |
6% |
6% |
8% |
8% |
7% |
| Approve |
32% |
29% |
30% |
31% |
32% |
31% |
26% |
29% |
26% |
26% |
25% |
25% |
29% |
| Disapprove |
20% |
23% |
21% |
24% |
25% |
23% |
25% |
23% |
24% |
26% |
25% |
27% |
22% |
| Strongly disapprove |
17% |
24% |
18% |
23% |
23% |
27% |
28% |
29% |
30% |
29% |
31% |
30% |
31% |
| Don’t know |
26% |
16% |
22% |
16% |
15% |
11% |
14% |
12% |
13% |
13% |
12% |
10% |
11% |
36% (up 3%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 53% (down 4%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -24 to -17 over the last 4 weeks.
70% (up 8%) of Coalition voters approve and 21% (down 10%) disapprove.
By gender – men 38% approve/51% disapprove, women 34% approve/55% disapprove. In net terms this represents a shift with men from -15 to -13 and with women from -31 to -21.
11 February 2013, 110213, Better PM, Julia Gillard, tony abbott
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
|
5 |
14 |
14 June |
12 Sept |
12 Dec |
12 Mar 12 |
12 |
10 Sept |
10 Dec |
14 |
11 |
Vote |
Vote Lib |
Vote Greens |
|
| Julia Gillard |
53% |
44% |
41% |
36% |
39% |
40% |
37% |
40% |
43% |
42% |
39% |
82% |
5% |
69% |
| Tony Abbott |
26% |
33% |
36% |
40% |
35% |
37% |
37% |
37% |
34% |
33% |
37% |
6% |
75% |
6% |
| Don’t know |
21% |
23% |
24% |
24% |
26% |
23% |
26% |
24% |
23% |
24% |
24% |
12% |
20% |
25% |
39% (down 3%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 37% (up 4%) prefer Tony Abbott.
Men prefer Tony Abbott 41%/38% and women prefer Julia Gillard 39%/33%.
11 February 2013, 110213, current election system, fixed term elections
Q. Would you favour fixed term Federal Elections where elections are held on a set date or the current system where the Government chooses the date of each election?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Fixed term elections |
63% |
66% |
66% |
57% |
| Current system |
23% |
23% |
21% |
27% |
| Don’t know |
14% |
11% |
13% |
16% |
63% favour fixed term Federal Elections where elections are held on a set date and 23% favour the current system where the Government chooses the date of each election. There was majority support for fixed term elections across all demographic and voter groups. Strongest support came from older respondents with 73% of those aged 55+ preferring fixed term elections.
11 February 2013, 110213, asylum seekers, climate change, Education, environment, Housing affordability, management of the economy, war on terrorism
Q. Which are the three most important issues in deciding how you would vote at a Federal election?
|
Total 11 Feb 13 |
19 Nov 12 |
30 Jul 12 |
5 Dec 11 |
6 June 11 |
25 Jan 10 |
|
| Management of the economy |
62% |
66% |
64% |
62% |
61% |
63% |
| Ensuring a quality education for all children |
29% |
35% |
26% |
22% |
26% |
23% |
| Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system |
52% |
57% |
47% |
47% |
49% |
48% |
| Protecting the environment |
14% |
14% |
11% |
13% |
15% |
16% |
| A fair industrial relations system |
12% |
8% |
12% |
11% |
8% |
na |
| Political leadership |
14% |
15% |
25% |
18% |
17% |
23% |
| Addressing climate change |
9% |
9% |
9% |
10% |
15% |
16% |
| Controlling interest rates |
9% |
11% |
9% |
11% |
13% |
15% |
| Australian jobs and protection of local industries |
40% |
32% |
41% |
36% |
32% |
33% |
| Ensuring a quality water supply |
4% |
5% |
3% |
4% |
5% |
12% |
| Housing affordability |
11% |
14% |
13% |
13% |
16% |
14% |
| Ensuring a fair taxation system |
21% |
17% |
18% |
16% |
17% |
14% |
| Security and the war on terrorism |
6% |
5% |
5% |
4% |
8% |
9% |
| Treatment of asylum seekers |
6% |
6% |
10% |
8% |
5% |
na |
| Managing population growth |
9% |
7% |
8% |
8% |
12% |
na |
*Not asked
62% of people surveyed rated management of the economy as one of their three most important issues, followed by 52% ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system, 40% Australian jobs and protection of local industries and 29% ensuring a quality education for all children.
Since November, there has been an increase in the importance of Australian jobs and protection of local industries (+8%) and a decline in the importance of ensuring a quality education for all children (-6%) and ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system (-5%).
11 February 2013, 110213, asylum seekers, controlling interest rates, Education, eleciton issues, management of the economy, party trust, war on terrorism
Q. Which party would you trust most to handle the following issues?
|
Labor |
Liberal |
Greens |
Don’t know |
Diff |
Diff |
Diff |
|
| Management of the economy |
31% |
46% |
3% |
21% |
-15 |
-14 |
-18 |
| Ensuring a quality education for all children |
37% |
35% |
6% |
22% |
+2 |
+5 |
-2 |
| Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system |
33% |
36% |
6% |
25% |
-3 |
-3 |
-6 |
| Protecting the environment |
20% |
21% |
39% |
20% |
+18 |
+16 |
+17 |
| A fair industrial relations system |
39% |
33% |
4% |
23% |
+6 |
+9 |
+6 |
| Political leadership |
29% |
37% |
6% |
29% |
-8 |
-12 |
-16 |
| Addressing climate change |
21% |
24% |
29% |
26% |
+5 |
+9 |
+7 |
| Controlling interest rates |
27% |
41% |
3% |
30% |
-14 |
-11 |
-18 |
| Protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries |
33% |
36% |
4% |
27% |
-3 |
-2 |
-6 |
| Ensuring a quality water supply |
21% |
27% |
23% |
29% |
-6 |
-7 |
-12 |
| Housing affordability |
27% |
33% |
5% |
35% |
-6 |
-5 |
-11 |
| Ensuring a fair taxation system |
31% |
37% |
4% |
28% |
-6 |
-9 |
-10 |
| Security and the war on terrorism |
25% |
38% |
4% |
33% |
-13 |
-15 |
-22 |
| Treatment of asylum seekers |
20% |
37% |
14% |
30% |
-17 |
-18 |
-20 |
| Managing population growth |
21% |
33% |
7% |
39% |
-12 |
-15 |
-19 |
Note – Differences are calculated by subtracting Liberal % from Labor % – except for the two issues on which the Greens lead in which case it is Greens minus Liberal.
Labor has a significant lead over the Liberal Party only on ensuring a fair industrial relations system. The Liberal Party has maintained strong leads on management of the economy, controlling interest rates, political leadership, security and the war on terrorism, treatment of asylum seekers and managing population growth.
There is little difference between Labor and the Liberals on ensuring a quality education for all children, ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system and protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries. Since November, there has been very little shift on any issue.
11 February 2013, 110213, all working people, better policy, carers, low income earners, party policies, pensioners, people with disabilities, unemployed people
Q. Which party do you think has the better policies for the following groups of people?
|
Labor Party |
Liberal Party |
No difference |
Don’t know |
Net 11 Feb 13 |
Net 6 Aug 12 |
|
| Pensioners |
32% |
23% |
31% |
15% |
+9 |
+11 |
| Unemployed people |
34% |
21% |
30% |
15% |
+13 |
+18 |
| People with disabilities |
35% |
20% |
29% |
17% |
+15 |
+16 |
| Carers |
30% |
22% |
30% |
19% |
+8 |
+12 |
| People on low incomes |
37% |
21% |
26% |
16% |
+16 |
+22 |
| All working people |
32% |
31% |
23% |
14% |
+1 |
-1 |
The Labor Party was thought to have better policies than the Liberal Party on all issues except “all working people” where both parties had similar ratings. In particular the Labor Party was thought to have better policies for people on low incomes (37% Labor/21% Liberal), unemployed people (34%/21%) and people with disabilities (35%/20%).
Of those aged 55+, 31% thought Labor had better policies for pensioners and 30% thought the Liberals had better policies.
32% think Labor has better policies for all working people and 31% think the Liberals have better policies. Employed people are more likely to think the Liberals have the better policies (35% Liberal/31% Labor).