01 July 2013, 010713, 2PP, Greens, Labor Party, Liberal Party, Nationals, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,865 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
|
This week (single week result) |
| Liberal |
|
45% |
44% |
44% |
43% |
42% |
||
| National |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
4% |
|||
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
48% |
47% |
47% |
46% |
46% |
||
| Labor |
38.0% |
35% |
35% |
34% |
36% |
38% |
||
| Greens |
11.8% |
8% |
8% |
8% |
9% |
9% |
||
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
9% |
11% |
9% |
7% |
| 2 Party Preferred |
Election |
|
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
|
This week (single week result) |
| Liberal National |
49.9% |
55% |
54% |
55% |
53% |
52% |
||
| Labor |
50.1% |
45% |
46% |
45% |
47% |
48% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
01 July, 010713, approval of leadership change, Julia Gillard, kevin rudd
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of Kevin Rudd replacing Julia Gillard as leader of the Labor Party?
|
Total |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total approve |
55% |
77% |
40% |
48% |
|
| Total disapprove |
31% |
13% |
49% |
37% |
|
| Strongly approve |
24% |
45% |
12% |
8% |
|
| Approve |
31% |
32% |
28% |
40% |
|
| Disapprove |
15% |
8% |
22% |
23% |
|
| Strongly disapprove |
16% |
5% |
27% |
14% |
|
| Don’t know |
14% |
10% |
12% |
16% |
55% approve Kevin Rudd replacing Julia Gillard as leader of the Labor Party and 31% disapprove.
77% of Labor voters approve and 13% disapprove.
63% of men approve and 27% disapprove compared to 46% of women approve and 36% disapprove.
01 July 2013, 010713, Labor, Likelihood of voting labor
Q. Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for the Labor Party now that Kevin Rudd is leader?
|
Total |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total more likely |
33% |
61% |
14% |
21% |
|
| Total less likely |
19% |
4% |
33% |
26% |
|
| Much more likely |
20% |
46% |
3% |
10% |
|
| A little more likely |
13% |
15% |
11% |
11% |
|
| Makes no difference |
42% |
34% |
50% |
44% |
|
| A little less likely |
4% |
2% |
4% |
15% |
|
| Much less likely |
15% |
2% |
29% |
11% |
|
| Don’t know |
6% |
2% |
3% |
11% |
33% say they are more likely to vote Labor now the Kevin Rudd is leader, 19% are less likely and 42% say it makes no difference.
For men, 34% say they are more likely and 19% less likely compared to 32% more likely and 19% less likely with women.
01 July 2013, 010713, the economy, value of australian dollar
Q. Over the last few weeks the value of the Australian dollar has fallen against other currencies. Do you think this is good or bad for the Australian economy?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
||
| Total good |
37% |
42% |
36% |
29% |
|
| Total bad |
25% |
17% |
34% |
23% |
|
| Very good |
6% |
8% |
5% |
– |
|
| Good |
31% |
34% |
31% |
29% |
|
| Neither good nor bad |
28% |
32% |
25% |
39% |
|
| Bad |
20% |
15% |
26% |
15% |
|
| Very bad |
5% |
2% |
8% |
8% |
|
| Don’t know |
10% |
9% |
5% |
9% |
37% think that the falling value of the dollar is good for the Australian economy and 25% think it is bad for the economy.
49% of those aged 55+ think it is good for the economy.
010713, 07 July 2013, good or bad, Value of the dollar
Q. Do you think it is good or bad for you personally?
|
Total |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total good |
14% |
15% |
14% |
14% |
|
| Total bad |
42% |
36% |
49% |
43% |
|
| Very good |
3% |
4% |
2% |
– |
|
| Good |
11% |
11% |
12% |
14% |
|
| Neither good nor bad |
38% |
43% |
34% |
36% |
|
| Bad |
31% |
29% |
35% |
30% |
|
| Very bad |
11% |
7% |
14% |
13% |
|
| Don’t know |
7% |
5% |
3% |
6% |
14% think that the falling value of the dollar is good for them personally and 42% think it is bad for them personally. 38% think it is neither good nor bad.
49% of those on income above $1,600pw think it is bad for them personally while 49% of those earning less than $1,000pw think it is neither good nor bad.
01 July 2013, 010713, Better off under Labor or Liberal government, disabilities, low incomes, Single parents, unemployed people
Q. Do you think the following groups of people would be better off under a Labor Government or a Liberal Government?
|
Better off under a Labor Government |
Better off under a Liberal Government |
Makes |
Don’t know |
|
Difference |
Difference |
|
| People with disabilities |
41% |
20% |
23% |
16% |
+21 |
+20 |
|
| People and families on low incomes |
42% |
21% |
21% |
16% |
+21 |
+27 |
|
| Single parents |
35% |
20% |
25% |
20% |
+15 |
+23 |
|
| Unemployed people |
35% |
21% |
27% |
18% |
+14 |
+27 |
|
| Families with children at public school |
36% |
22% |
23% |
19% |
+14 |
+19 |
|
| Recent immigrants to Australia |
31% |
18% |
28% |
24% |
+13 |
+18 |
|
| Pensioners |
34% |
23% |
25% |
19% |
+11 |
+16 |
|
| Average working people |
31% |
29% |
24% |
16% |
+2 |
+5 |
|
| People and families on middle incomes |
28% |
33% |
21% |
18% |
-5 |
-7 |
|
| Farmers and other agricultural producers |
19% |
34% |
24% |
24% |
-15 |
-13 |
|
| Small businesses |
20% |
38% |
20% |
21% |
-18 |
-16 |
|
| Families with children at private school |
15% |
42% |
23% |
20% |
-27 |
-30 |
|
| Banks and other financial institutions |
10% |
45% |
23% |
21% |
-35 |
-38 |
|
| People and families on high incomes |
12% |
53% |
17% |
18% |
-41 |
-43 |
|
| Large corporations |
10% |
53% |
18% |
19% |
-43 |
-48 |
Respondents were substantially more likely to think the following groups would be better off under a Labor Government – people with disabilities, low income families, single parents, unemployed and families with children at public school.
They were substantially more likely to think the following groups would be better off under a Liberal Government – large corporations, high income families, banks and financial institutions, families with children at private schools.
01 July 2013, 010713, Australian troops, Troops in Afghanistan
Q. Thinking about the Australian troops in Afghanistan, do you think Australia should –
|
Jun 2010 |
May 2011 |
Nov 2011 |
Mar 2012 |
Sept 2012 |
|
Total |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Increase the number of troops in Afghanistan |
7% |
6% |
3% |
4% |
4% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
– |
||
| Keep the same number of troops in Afghanistan |
24% |
36% |
22% |
22% |
23% |
16% |
14% |
22% |
11% |
||
| Withdraw our troops from Afghanistan |
61% |
48% |
64% |
64% |
62% |
69% |
72% |
64% |
70% |
||
| Don’t know |
8% |
11% |
11% |
10% |
11% |
13% |
12% |
12% |
19% |
Support for withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan increased to 69% from 62% last September. Support for increasing or maintaining troops in Afghanistan dropped from 27% to 18%.
65% of men and 73% of women favour withdrawal of troops.
Support for withdrawing Australian troops has increased for all voter groups – up 12 points to 72% for Labor voters, up 6 points to 64% for Liberal/National voters and up 5 points to 70% for Greens voters.