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  • Jul, 2013

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    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    Sample size = 1,865 respondents

    First preference/leaning to

    Election

    21 Aug 10

     

    4 weeks ago
    3/6/13

    2 weeks ago
    17/6/13

    Last week
    24/6/13

    This week
    1/7/13

     

    This week (single week result)
    sample = 906

    Liberal

     

    45%

    44%

    44%

    43%

    42%

    National

    3%

    3%

    3%

    3%

    4%

    Total Lib/Nat

    43.6%

    48%

    47%

    47%

    46%

    46%

    Labor

    38.0%

    35%

    35%

    34%

    36%

    38%

    Greens

    11.8%

    8%

    8%

    8%

    9%

    9%

    Other/Independent

    6.6%

    9%

    9%

    11%

    9%

    7%

     

    2 Party Preferred

    Election
    21 Aug 10

     

    4 weeks ago
    3/6/13

    2 weeks ago
    17/6/13

    Last week
    24/6/13

    This week
    1/7/13

     

    This week (single week result)
    sample = 906

    Liberal National

    49.9%

    55%

    54%

    55%

    53%

    52%

    Labor

    50.1%

    45%

    46%

    45%

    47%

    48%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

  • Jul, 2013

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    Approval of Kevin Rudd replacing Julia Gillard

    Q. Do you approve or disapprove of Kevin Rudd replacing Julia Gillard as leader of the Labor Party?

     

    Total

     

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Total approve

    55%

    77%

    40%

    48%

    Total disapprove

    31%

    13%

    49%

    37%

    Strongly approve

    24%

    45%

    12%

    8%

    Approve

    31%

    32%

    28%

    40%

    Disapprove

    15%

    8%

    22%

    23%

    Strongly disapprove

    16%

    5%

    27%

    14%

    Don’t know

    14%

    10%

    12%

    16%

    55% approve Kevin Rudd replacing Julia Gillard as leader of the Labor Party and 31% disapprove.

    77% of Labor voters approve and 13% disapprove.

    63% of men approve and 27% disapprove compared to 46% of women approve and 36% disapprove.

  • Jul, 2013

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    Likelihood of voting Labor

    Q. Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for the Labor Party now that Kevin Rudd is leader?

     

    Total

     

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Total more likely

    33%

    61%

    14%

    21%

    Total less likely

    19%

    4%

    33%

    26%

    Much more likely

    20%

    46%

    3%

    10%

    A little more likely

    13%

    15%

    11%

    11%

    Makes no difference

    42%

    34%

    50%

    44%

    A little less likely

    4%

    2%

    4%

    15%

    Much less likely

    15%

    2%

    29%

    11%

    Don’t know

    6%

    2%

    3%

    11%

    33% say they are more likely to vote Labor now the Kevin Rudd is leader, 19% are less likely and 42% say it makes no difference.

    For men, 34% say they are more likely and 19% less likely compared to 32% more likely and 19% less likely with women.

  • Jul, 2013

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    Value of the dollar – for the economy

    Q. Over the last few weeks the value of the Australian dollar has fallen against other currencies. Do you think this is good or bad for the Australian economy?

     

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Total good

    37%

    42%

    36%

    29%

    Total bad

    25%

    17%

    34%

    23%

    Very good

    6%

    8%

    5%

    Good

    31%

    34%

    31%

    29%

    Neither good nor bad

    28%

    32%

    25%

    39%

    Bad

    20%

    15%

    26%

    15%

    Very bad

    5%

    2%

    8%

    8%

    Don’t know

    10%

    9%

    5%

    9%

    37% think that the falling value of the dollar is good for the Australian economy and 25% think it is bad for the economy.

    49% of those aged 55+ think it is good for the economy.

  • Jul, 2013

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    Value of the dollar – for you personally

    Q. Do you think it is good or bad for you personally?

     

    Total

     

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Total good

    14%

    15%

    14%

    14%

    Total bad

    42%

    36%

    49%

    43%

    Very good

    3%

    4%

    2%

    Good

    11%

    11%

    12%

    14%

    Neither good nor bad

    38%

    43%

    34%

    36%

    Bad

    31%

    29%

    35%

    30%

    Very bad

    11%

    7%

    14%

    13%

    Don’t know

    7%

    5%

    3%

    6%

    14% think that the falling value of the dollar is good for them personally and 42% think it is bad for them personally. 38% think it is neither good nor bad.

    49% of those on income above $1,600pw think it is bad for them personally while 49% of those earning less than $1,000pw think it is neither good nor bad.

  • Jul, 2013

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    Groups better off under Labor or Liberal Government

    Q. Do you think the following groups of people would be better off under a Labor Government or a Liberal Government?

     

    Better off under a Labor Government

    Better off under a Liberal Government

    Makes
    no difference

    Don’t know

     

    Difference
    (Labor minus Liberal)

    Difference
    Sept
    12

    People with disabilities

    41%

    20%

    23%

    16%

    +21

    +20

    People and families on low incomes

    42%

    21%

    21%

    16%

    +21

    +27

    Single parents

    35%

    20%

    25%

    20%

    +15

    +23

    Unemployed people

    35%

    21%

    27%

    18%

    +14

    +27

    Families with children at public school

    36%

    22%

    23%

    19%

    +14

    +19

    Recent immigrants to Australia

    31%

    18%

    28%

    24%

    +13

    +18

    Pensioners

    34%

    23%

    25%

    19%

    +11

    +16

    Average working people

    31%

    29%

    24%

    16%

    +2

    +5

    People and families on middle incomes

    28%

    33%

    21%

    18%

    -5

    -7

    Farmers and other agricultural producers

    19%

    34%

    24%

    24%

    -15

    -13

    Small businesses

    20%

    38%

    20%

    21%

    -18

    -16

    Families with children at private school

    15%

    42%

    23%

    20%

    -27

    -30

    Banks and other financial institutions

    10%

    45%

    23%

    21%

    -35

    -38

    People and families on high incomes

    12%

    53%

    17%

    18%

    -41

    -43

    Large corporations

    10%

    53%

    18%

    19%

    -43

    -48

    Respondents were substantially more likely to think the following groups would be better off under a Labor Government – people with disabilities, low income families, single parents, unemployed and families with children at public school.

    They were substantially more likely to think the following groups would be better off under a Liberal Government – large corporations, high income families, banks and financial institutions, families with children at private schools.

  • Jul, 2013

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    Australian troops in Afghanistan

    Q. Thinking about the Australian troops in Afghanistan, do you think Australia should –

     

    Jun 2010

    May 2011

    Nov 2011

    Mar 2012

    Sept 2012

     

    Total

     

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Increase the number of troops in Afghanistan

    7%

    6%

    3%

    4%

    4%

    2%

    2%

    2%

    Keep the same number of troops in Afghanistan

    24%

    36%

    22%

    22%

    23%

    16%

    14%

    22%

    11%

    Withdraw our troops from Afghanistan

    61%

    48%

    64%

    64%

    62%

    69%

    72%

    64%

    70%

    Don’t know

    8%

    11%

    11%

    10%

    11%

    13%

    12%

    12%

    19%

    Support for withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan increased to 69% from 62% last September. Support for increasing or maintaining troops in Afghanistan dropped from 27% to 18%.

    65% of men and 73% of women favour withdrawal of troops.

    Support for withdrawing Australian troops has increased for all voter groups – up 12 points to 72% for Labor voters, up 6 points to 64% for Liberal/National voters and up 5 points to 70% for Greens voters.

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