The Essential Report Archive Read the latest report

  • Apr, 2019

    Perceptions of leaders

    Q. Which party leader would you…?

      Scott Morrison Bill Shorten Unsure
    Ask their advice about investing money 37% 21% 42%
    Most trust to give your children advice about the future 31% 25% 45%
    Most like to go to the pub for a beer with 31% 29% 41%
    Most like to go to the footy with 31% 25% 44%
    Most like to have over for dinner 30% 28% 42%
    Prefer to have negotiate your next pay rise 29% 37% 34%
    Think would be more likely to stop and help if your car was stranded 29% 28% 43%
    Think would be more likely to lend you $100 if you needed it 26% 31% 43%
    Most like to have babysit your children 25% 21% 54%
    Most trust to cook a good meal 25% 22% 53%
    Most like to go on holiday with 24% 21% 55%
    Ask their advice about a personal issue 24% 24% 52%
    Most trust to look after your pet 24% 24% 52%
    Ask to help you with home renovations 22% 24% 54%

    Unsure removed

      Scott Morrison Bill Shorten Difference
    Ask their advice about investing money 64% 36% +28
    Most like to go to the footy with 56% 44% +12
    Most trust to give your children advice about the future 55% 45% +10
    Most like to have babysit your children 54% 46% +8
    Most like to go on holiday with 53% 47% +6
    Most like to have over for dinner 52% 48% +4
    Most like to go to the pub for a beer with 52% 48% +4
    Most trust to cook a good meal 52% 48% +4
    Most trust to look after your pet 50% 50% 0
    Ask their advice about a personal issue 50% 50% 0
    Think would be more likely to stop and help if your car was stranded 50% 50% 0
    Ask to help you with home renovations 48% 52% -4
    Think would be more likely to lend you $100 if you needed it 46% 54% -8
    Prefer to have negotiate your next pay rise 44% 56% -12
    • Comparing the two party leaders, voters would prefer Scott Morrison to Bill Shorten to ask about investing money (64% to 36%), go to the footy with (56% to 44%) and give their children advice about the future (55% to 45%).
    • Bill Shorten was more trusted to negotiate a pay rise (56% to 44%).
  • Apr, 2019

    2019 voting method

    Q. Which of the following best describes how you intend to vote at the Federal Election?

      Total Vote Labor Vote Liberal / National Vote Greens NET: Vote Other
    I will vote at a pre-poll before election day 21% 24% 23% 20% 16%
    I will vote by post 12% 14% 12% 13% 9%
    I will vote at a polling station on election day 56% 54% 60% 57% 70%
    I’m not sure how I will vote 7% 7% 3% 7% 3%
    I don’t intend to vote 3% 1% 1% 2% 1%
    I intend to vote informal 1% 0% 0% 1% 0%
    • Just over half (56%) of voters intend to visit a polling station on election day, with pre-polling the second most popular option, with 21% intending to do this.
    • Voters of a minor or independent candidate are most likely to wait until election day to register their vote, with 70% indenting to vote at a station on election day.
    • Voters aged 55 and over are most likely to complete a pre-poll vote before election day (29%).
  • Apr, 2019

    Federal voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    Q       Total   2 Weeks ago   4 weeks ago   Election
    25/03/19 11/03/19 02/07/16
    Liberal 36%   35% 34%
    National 3%   4% 3%
    Total Liberal/National 38%   39% 37% 42.0%
    Labor 35%   36% 38% 34.7%
    Greens 11%   10% 8% 10.2%
    Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 5%   7% 7%
    Other/Independent 10%   8% 10% 13.1%
    2 party preferred    
    Liberal/National 48%   48% 47% 50.4%
    Labor 52%   52% 53% 49.6%
    1. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.
  • Apr, 2019

    Federal Budget Approval

    Q. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the Federal Budget that was handed down on Tuesday 2nd April? 

      Total Vote Labor Vote Liberal / National Vote Greens NET: Vote Other
    NET: Approve 51% 39% 79% 32% 48%
    NET: Disapprove 27% 45% 8% 44% 28%
    Strongly approve 11% 5% 23% 2% 8%
    Somewhat approve 40% 34% 56% 29% 39%
    Somewhat disapprove 18% 28% 7% 28% 17%
    Strongly disapprove 9% 16% 1% 16% 11%
    Don’t know 21% 16% 13% 24% 25%
    • Just over half (51%) of voters approve of the 2019 Budget, with 27% disapproving and 21% unsure.
    • Approval was highest among Coalition voters (79%), males (57%), those aged over 55 (57%), and those with an annual household income of between $52k and $104k (58%).
    • However approval was lowest among Greens (32%) and Labour voters (39%), and those not in paid employment (38%).
      2019 Budget 2018

    Budget

    2017

    Budget

    NET: Approve 51% 44% 41%
    NET: Disapprove 27% 28% 33%
    Strongly approve 11% 5% 5%
    Somewhat approve 40% 39% 36%
    Somewhat disapprove 18% 19% 23%
    Strongly disapprove 9% 9% 10%
    Don’t know 21% 28% 25%
    • The 2019 Budget has been met with higher approval than the previous two Budgets. Approval in 2019 is 7%pts higher than last year (44%) and 10%pts higher than 2017.
    • Those disapproving of the Budget is similar in 2019 and 2018 (27% and 28%) and slightly lower in 2017, when 33% disapproved.
  • Apr, 2019

    Approval of Budget Announcements

    Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the following measures contained in the Budget?

      NET: Strongly / Somewhat approve NET: Strongly / Somewhat disapprove Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Unsure
    Investing $100 billion in national infrastructure spending over the next ten years 76% 13% 30% 46% 9% 5% 11%
    Delivering a tax rebate for workers earning up to $90,000 75% 15% 34% 41% 10% 5% 10%
    Running a $7.1 billion Budget surplus in 2019-20 62% 20% 27% 35% 15% 5% 18%
    Flattening tax rates from 2024, thereby cutting taxes for the highest income earners 42% 47% 14% 28% 19% 28% 12%
    Putting $1.5 billion previously allocated to NDIS disability funding back into the general accounts 37% 50% 14% 23% 23% 27% 13%
    • The announcement to invest $100 billion in infrastructure projects was the most popular of those tested, with just over three-quarters (76%) approving. This was closely followed by 75% of voters approving of a tax rebate for workers earning up to $90,000.
    • More people disapproved than approved of the proposals to flatten tax rates (47% vs. 42%) and the re-allocation of NDIS funding (50% vs. 37%).
  • Apr, 2019

    Agreement with Budget Statements

    Q. Do you agree or disagree with the following statements about the Budget?

      NET: Strongly / Somewhat agree NET: Strongly / Somewhat disagree Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Unsure
    The Government only made its spending pledges because they are in danger of losing the election 57% 36% 28% 29% 23% 13% 7%
    This Budget is more about improving the Government’s popularity than improving the economy 54% 38% 25% 29% 24% 14% 8%
    Providing adequate funding disability services is more important than returning the Budget to surplus 53% 42% 23% 30% 29% 13% 5%
    This Budget will benefit the wealthy more than ordinary Australians 47% 46% 23% 24% 30% 16% 7%
    Overall, the Budget is fair and balanced 32% 55% 7% 24% 35% 20% 14%
    • Over half of voters agreed that the spending pledges made by the Government were only made due to insecurities of them winning the next election (57% agreement). Furthermore 54% agreed that the measures announced in the Budget were more about popularity than improving the economy.
    • Less than a third of voters felt the Budget was fair and balanced (32%), with just under half (47%) thinking it will benefit the wealthy more than ordinary Australians.
    NET: Agree Total Vote Labor Vote Liberal / National Vote Greens NET: Vote Other
    The Government only made its spending pledges because they are in danger of losing the election 57% 77% 39% 65% 61%
    This Budget is more about improving the Government’s popularity than improving the economy 54% 75% 32% 71% 58%
    Providing adequate funding disability services is more important than returning the Budget to surplus 53% 68% 40% 58% 51%
    This Budget will benefit the wealthy more than ordinary Australians 47% 67% 26% 62% 52%
    Overall, the Budget is fair and balanced 32% 18% 57% 14% 24%
    • The majority of Coalition voters believe the Budget is fair and balanced (57%) compared to just 18% of Labor voters, 14% of Greens voters and 24% of those intending to vote for an independent candidate or other minor party.
  • Apr, 2019

    Rating of budget

    Q. In general, do you think the Budget has been good or bad for you personally?           

      Total Vote Labor Vote Liberal / National Vote Greens NET: Vote Other
    NET: Good 26% 16% 42% 19% 21%
    NET: Bad 20% 30% 4% 27% 33%
    Very good 5% 2% 9% 3% 4%
    Good 21% 15% 33% 16% 17%
    Neither good nor bad 46% 49% 50% 45% 39%
    Bad 12% 16% 3% 19% 23%
    Very bad 8% 13% 2% 8% 10%
    Don’t know 8% 5% 4% 9% 7%
    • 26% of people believe they will personally benefit from the Budget, with 20% expecting to be worse off. 46% thought it would not affect them.
    • Coalition voters were most likely to think the Budget was good for them (42%), with just 16% of Labor voters and 19% of Greens voters expecting the same outcome.
      Total Aged

    18-34

    Aged

    35-54

    Aged

    55+

    Lower Household Income

    (Up to $51,999 per year)

    Mid Household Income ($52,000-$103,999 per year) Higher Household Income (More than $104,000 per year)
    NET: Good 26% 29% 28% 20% 18% 27% 40%
    NET: Bad 20% 16% 19% 23% 29% 16% 11%
    Very good 5% 7% 4% 3% 5% 4% 6%
    Good 21% 22% 24% 17% 12% 23% 34%
    Neither good nor bad 46% 43% 43% 53% 46% 49% 45%
    Bad 12% 10% 12% 13% 16% 10% 8%
    Very bad 8% 5% 7% 10% 12% 6% 3%
    Don’t know 8% 12% 10% 4% 8% 8% 4%
    • Just 18% of those with a household income of less than $52,000 per year think the Budget was good for them, compared to 40% of those in a household earning over $104,000 per year.
    • 20% of those aged over 55 thought the Budget would be good for them personally, which was less than the 29% of those aged 18-34.
  • Apr, 2019

    Budget impact on voting intention

    Q. To what extent has the Budget impacted your likelihood to vote for the Coalition at the upcoming Federal election?           

      Total Vote Labor Vote Liberal / National Vote Greens NET: Vote Other
    It has made me more likely to vote for them 17% 10% 31% 9% 14%
    It has not changed my likelihood to vote or not vote for them 61% 52% 65% 64% 58%
    It has made me less likely to vote for them 22% 38% 4% 27% 28%
    • 61% said the Budget would have no effect on the way they intend to vote at the next election.
    • The Budget has strengthened the vote within Coalition support, with 31% saying the Budget has made them more likely to vote for the Coalition.
    • 38% of Labor voters are less likely to consider the Coalition as a result of the Budget, with 10% of Labor voters saying they are more likely to consider switching their vote.
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