Q. Which of the following best describes how you intend to vote at the Federal Election?

• Half (50%) of voters intend to visit a polling station on election day, with pre-polling the second most popular option, with 24% intending to do this.
• As election day gets closer, fewer people said they intend to vote on the day. Last week 56% intended to vote on election day, this is now 50%, with those intending to pre-poll increasing from 21% to 24%, and voting by post moving from 12% to 13%.
• Voters aged 55 and over are most likely to complete a pre-poll vote before election day (30%).

Q. Which of the following statements best describes how you have voted in previous Federal elections? 

• 44% of people said they always voted for a major party (either Labor or Liberal/Nationals) and a further 36% say they usually vote for one of these parties.
• Those aged over 55 years are most likely to always vote for a major party (52%).
• 41% of those intending to vote Green at the next election said they always, or usually voted for a major party, 52% of people intending to vote for a minor party (One Nation, UAP etc.) or an independent candidate said they always/usually voted for a major party.

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?

1. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2016 election.

Q. Which party do you expect will win the 2019 Federal election and form Government?       

• 59% of voters believe Labor will be victorious over the Liberal/National coalition in the 2019 Federal election. Expectations among supporters of the Labor party are high, with 95% believe Labour will win. The majority of Coalition voters (74%) and those intending to vote for another party/independent candidate (53%) expect the Coalition to form Government following the election.
• A majority of both men (60%) and women (58%) expect Labor to win the election.
• Over half of each of the age ranges 18-34 (61%), 35-54 (61%) and 55+ (56%) also expect Labour to form the next Government.

Q. How important are each of the following issues in deciding how you will vote in the next election? 10 – Very Important

• On a 0-10 importance scale, 40% of people said Healthcare was an important issue (giving highest score of 10 out of 10). This was rated as an important issue by just under half of Labor voters (49%) and by the highest proportion of those voting for a minor party or independent (41%).
• 35% thought National security and terrorism was a very important election issue. This result was highest among Coalition voters (40%), where it was the top issue, and those voting for another party or independent (38%).
• The issues given a ‘Very important’ rating by Greens voters were Climate change (50%) and the Environment (50%).

Q. How much attention have you been paying to the news, advertising and updates from the Federal Election?   

• Just under one in five people (19%) say they have not been paying any attention to the election. This was highest among those aged 18-34 (26%).
• Engagement in the election was lower among those intending to vote for a minor or independent candidate. 19% of these voters say they haven’t been paying any attention the election, and just 14% say they have been paying a lot of attention.
• Older voters are so far most engaged with the election, with 29% saying they have been paying a lot of attention.
• Men were more likely than women to say they had been paying a lot of attention to the election (25% to 14%).

 Q. What news stories about the campaign have you noticed?

• The preference agreement between the Liberals and UAP has been dominating the news this week. ‘Clive Palmer’, ‘United Australia Party’ and ‘Preferences’ all received a notable number of mentions.
• ‘Tax’ was one of the most mentioned issued participants recall seeing in the news this week, along with continuing topics relating to the Budget announcement made earlier in the month.
• ‘Healthcare’ and ‘Healthcare funding’ have been one of the most noticed policy topics over the past week.

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Scott Morrison and Bill Shorten?

• 40% thought that Scott Morrison would make the better Prime Minister (down 4%pts from last month), and 31% thought Bill Shorten would be better (no change from March). 29% did not know who would make a better Prime Minister.
• The results were split by party allegiance, with 78% of Liberal/National voters saying that Scott Morrison would be a better Prime Minister (down 4%pts from March), and 62% of Labor voters saying Bill Shorten would (down 4%pts from 63% in March).
• Greens voters preferred Bill Shorten (38%) to Scott Morrison (25%).
• Both men (47% to 32%) and women (33% to 30%) would prefer Scott Morrison to Bill Shorten as Prime Minister.