2PP, Greens, Labor Party, Liberal Party, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,936 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 7 Sep 13 |
|
4 weeks ago 6/5/14 |
2 weeks ago 20/05/14 |
Last week 27/5/14 |
This week 3/6/14 |
| Liberal |
|
38% |
38% |
37% |
35% |
|
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
|
| Total Lib/Nat |
45.6% |
40% |
40% |
40% |
38% |
|
| Labor |
33.4% |
38% |
40% |
39% |
39% |
|
| Greens |
8.6% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
10% |
|
| Palmer United Party |
5.5% |
5% |
5% |
5% |
6% |
|
| Other/Independent |
6.9% |
8% |
7% |
7% |
7% |
| 2 Party Preferred |
Election 7 Sep 13 |
|
4 weeks ago 6/5/14 |
2 weeks ago 20/05/14 |
Last week 27/5/14 |
This week 3/6/14 |
| Liberal National |
53.5% |
48% |
48% |
48% |
47% |
|
| Labor |
46.5% |
52% |
52% |
52% |
53% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.
Q. Do you think the Federal Budget has cut Government spending by too much, not enough or about the right amount?
|
Total
|
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Vote other |
|
19 May |
|
| Cut spending too much |
48% |
72% |
18% |
66% |
56% |
41% |
||
| Not cut spending enough |
11% |
6% |
21% |
3% |
12% |
15% |
||
| Cut spending about right amount |
21% |
4% |
49% |
11% |
11% |
26% |
||
| Don’t know |
19% |
17% |
12% |
20% |
21% |
18% |
48% think the Federal Budget has cut Government spending by too much, 21% think it has cut the right amount and 11% think it has not cut spending enough. Over the last two weeks (since this question was asked immediately after the budget) the proportion thinking the budget has cut too much has increased 7% and decreased for both cut the right amount (down 5%) and not cut enough (down 4%).
72% of Labor voters (up 3%), 66% of Greens voters (up 11%) and 56% of others (up 8%) think that the Federal Budget had cut spending by too much. 49% of Liberal-National voters (down 6%) think that spending had been cut by the right amount.
Block the budget, Pass the whole budget, Vote against some parts of the budget
Q. Do you think the Labor Opposition should vote to block the whole budget, vote against certain parts of the budget or pass the whole budget?
|
Total
|
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Vote other |
|
| Block the budget |
18% |
34% |
1% |
20% |
21% |
|
| Vote against some parts of the budget |
53% |
60% |
41% |
64% |
66% |
|
| Pass the whole budget |
18% |
1% |
48% |
8% |
5% |
|
| Don’t know |
11% |
4% |
10% |
9% |
9% |
53% think the Labor Opposition should vote against some parts of the budget, 18% think they should block the whole budget and 18% think they should pass the whole budget.
A substantial majority of Labor voters (60%), Greens voters (64%) and other voters (66%) think that Labor should vote against some parts of the budget. 48% of Liberal/National voters think Labor should pass the whole budget but 41% think they should vote against some parts.
2% deficit levy, budget 2014, foreign aid, HELP debt, Labor Opposition
Q. Do you think the Labor Opposition should vote for or against the following budget decisions?
|
Vote for |
Vote against |
Don’t know |
|
| A 2% deficit levy on earnings over $180,000 |
73% |
13% |
14% |
| Foreign aid frozen at current levels for two years, helping save $7.6 billion over five years |
65% |
22% |
12% |
| University graduates to repay HELP debt once they earn $50,638 (reduced from $53,345) |
64% |
25% |
11% |
| A six-month waiting period for those under-30 before they can access the dole (Newstart) |
47% |
41% |
12% |
| Cut 16,500 full-time jobs from the public service in the next 3 years |
36% |
49% |
15% |
| A $120M cut to the ABC’s budget |
32% |
47% |
21% |
| $7 Medicare co-payment for all visits to the GP, with this money to be used to fund a Medical Research Future Fund. |
32% |
61% |
8% |
| Cut public funding for university courses by 20% |
28% |
57% |
16% |
| Eligibility for the age pension to rise to 70 by 2035 |
27% |
62% |
10% |
| Deregulation of university fees (meaning universities can set their own tuition fees) |
23% |
63% |
15% |
A majority think that Labor should vote for the 2% deficit levy (73%), freezing foreign aid (65%) and reducing the income level at which students repay debt (64%).
A majority think that Labor should vote against deregulation of university fees (63%), raising the pension age (62%), the $7 Medicare copayment (61%) and cutting university funding (57%).
They were more divided over the other issues, but tended to support the six-month waiting period for under 30’s to access the dole (47% for/41% against) and tended to oppose cutting the public service (36%/49%) and cutting funds to the ABC (32%/47%).
Blocking the budget, budget 2014, Labor Opposition
Q. Would you support or oppose the Labor Opposition blocking the budget and forcing a new election?
|
Total
|
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Vote other |
|
| Total support |
47% |
84% |
9% |
64% |
45% |
|
| Total oppose |
40% |
8% |
82% |
19% |
41% |
|
| Strongly support |
27% |
52% |
4% |
34% |
25% |
|
| Support |
20% |
32% |
5% |
30% |
20% |
|
| Oppose |
18% |
7% |
27% |
14% |
28% |
|
| Strongly oppose |
22% |
1% |
55% |
5% |
13% |
|
| Don’t know |
14% |
8% |
10% |
17% |
13% |
47% said they would support the Labor Opposition blocking the budget and forcing a new election and 40% said they were opposed.
A substantial majority of Labor voters (84%) and Greens voters (64%) supported forcing a new election.
economy, Education, environment, Interest rates, Party Trust to Handle Issues
Q. Which party would you trust most to handle the following issues?
|
Labor |
Liberal |
Greens |
Don’t know |
|
Difference 3 June 14 |
Difference 11 Feb 14 |
|
| Management of the economy |
28% |
41% |
4% |
28% |
-13 |
-19 |
|
| Ensuring a quality education for all children |
43% |
28% |
6% |
23% |
+15 |
+7 |
|
| Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system |
41% |
28% |
7% |
24% |
+13 |
+2 |
|
| Protecting the environment |
20% |
18% |
40% |
22% |
+22 |
+15 |
|
| A fair industrial relations system |
40% |
29% |
6% |
26% |
+11 |
+5 |
|
| Political leadership |
28% |
34% |
5% |
33% |
-6 |
-13 |
|
| Addressing climate change |
22% |
20% |
32% |
26% |
+12 |
+3 |
|
| Controlling interest rates |
28% |
40% |
3% |
29% |
-12 |
-17 |
|
| Australian jobs and protection of local industries |
40% |
28% |
5% |
27% |
+12 |
+2 |
|
| Ensuring a quality water supply |
21% |
26% |
25% |
28% |
-5 |
-10 |
|
| Housing affordability |
31% |
27% |
6% |
35% |
+4 |
-2 |
|
| Ensuring a fair taxation system |
32% |
33% |
6% |
29% |
-1 |
-6 |
|
| Security and the war on terrorism |
23% |
39% |
5% |
33% |
-16 |
-16 |
|
| Treatment of asylum seekers |
20% |
37% |
14% |
29% |
-17 |
-16 |
|
| Managing population growth |
21% |
31% |
9% |
38% |
-10 |
-11 |
Note – Differences are calculated by subtracting Liberal % from Labor % – except for the two issues on which the Greens lead in which case it is Greens minus Liberal.
The Liberal Party is trusted more to handle management of the economy (-13), controlling interest rates (-12), security and the war on terrorism (-16) and treatment of asylum seekers (-17). The Labor Party is trusted more to handle a quality education for all children (+15), ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system (+13), Australian jobs and protection of local industries (+12) and a fair industrial relations system (+11).
Since this question was asked in February, the Labor Party has improved its position on most issues – especially the quality of the health system (up 11), Australian jobs and protection of local industries (up 10) and education (up 8).
Q. Which of the following do you think would make the best leader of the Liberal Party?
|
|
Total |
|
Male |
Female |
Vote ALP |
Vote Lib |
Vote Greens |
Vote other |
29 Jul 13 |
23 Apr 12 |
30 May 11 |
28 Feb 11 |
27 Sep 10 |
| Tony Abbott |
18% |
21% |
15% |
3% |
43% |
2% |
13% |
17% |
23% |
22% |
24% |
26% |
|
| Malcolm Turnbull |
31% |
33% |
28% |
37% |
27% |
35% |
28% |
37% |
30% |
25% |
18% |
20% |
|
| Joe Hockey |
6% |
7% |
5% |
2% |
11% |
5% |
5% |
10% |
14% |
17% |
16% |
15% |
|
| Julie Bishop |
4% |
4% |
4% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
5% |
3% |
5% |
3% |
4% |
5% |
|
| Christopher Pyne |
<1% |
<1% |
– |
<1% |
– |
– |
– |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
|
| Scott Morrison |
1% |
1% |
<1% |
2% |
<1% |
– |
1% |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
|
| Andrew Robb |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
na |
* |
1% |
1% |
1% |
na |
|
| Someone else |
19% |
18% |
21% |
28% |
5% |
25% |
28% |
12% |
12% |
13% |
14% |
na |
|
| Don’t know |
21% |
16% |
27% |
24% |
10% |
30% |
21% |
19% |
16% |
19% |
22% |
33% |
31% (down 6% since July last year) think Malcolm Turnbull would make the best leader of the Liberal Party, 18% (up 1%) prefer Tony Abbott and 6% (down 4%) Joe Hockey. Note the previous poll was taken prior to the 2013 election when the Liberal Party were in Opposition.
Among Liberal/National voters, 43% (up 7%) prefer Tony Abbott, 27% (down 8%) Malcolm Turnbull and 11% (down 2%) Joe Hockey.
Malcolm Turnbull is preferred by 33% (down 6%) of men and 28% (down 8%) of women, Tony Abbott by 21% (no change) of men and 15% (up 1%) of women.
About this poll
This report summarises the results of a weekly omnibus conducted by Essential Research with data provided by Your Source. The survey was conducted online over 4 weeks to 27th May 2014.
Sample sizes were NSW 1,293, Queensland 737 and Victoria 1,005.
The results are compared with results from previous polls.
The methodology used to carry out this research is described in the appendix on page 7.
Note that due to rounding, not all tables necessarily total 100% and subtotals may also vary.
| NSW |
Election Mar 2011 |
|
Nov- |
Mar 13 |
Nov 13 |
Dec 13 |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar 14 |
Apr |
May 14 |
| Sample |
|
1,386 |
1,044 |
1,275 |
973 |
1,121 |
1,258 |
1,259 |
1,587 |
1,293 |
|
| First preference vote |
|
||||||||||
| Liberal/National |
51.1% |
51% |
49% |
49% |
44% |
48% |
47% |
46% |
46% |
42% |
|
| Labor |
25.6% |
31% |
33% |
33% |
36% |
33% |
36% |
37% |
36% |
38% |
|
| Greens |
10.3% |
8% |
9% |
8% |
9% |
8% |
8% |
8% |
8% |
9% |
|
| Palmer United Party |
4% |
3% |
2% |
2% |
3% |
3% |
|||||
| Other/Independent |
13.0% |
10% |
9% |
10% |
7% |
7% |
7% |
8% |
7% |
7% |
|
| 2PP | |||||||||||
| Liberal/National |
64.2% |
60% |
57% |
58% |
53% |
57% |
55% |
54% |
54% |
51% |
|
| Labor |
35.8% |
40% |
43% |
42% |
47% |
43% |
45% |
46% |
46% |
49% |