federal politics voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,771 respondents
| First preference/leaning to | Election 7 Sep 13 | 4 weeks ago16/6/15 | 2 weeks ago 30/6/15 | Last week7/7/15 | This week 14/7/15 | |
| Liberal | 39% | 38% | 38% | 38% | ||
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | ||
| Total Liberal/National | 45.6% | 42% | 41% | 41% | 41% | |
| Labor | 33.4% | 39% | 39% | 39% | 38% | |
| Greens | 8.6% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 11% | |
| Palmer United Party | 5.5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | |
| Other/Independent | 6.9% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% |
| 2 Party Preferred | Election 7 Sep 13 | 4 weeks ago16/6/15 | 2 weeks ago 30/6/15 | Last week7/7/15 | This week 14/7/15 | |
| Liberal National | 53.5% | 48% | 47% | 48% | 48% | |
| Labor | 46.5% | 52% | 53% | 52% | 52% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Prime Minister?
| Total | Vote Lab | Vote Lib/ Nat |
Vote GRN | Vote Other | Sep 13 | Mar 14 | June 14 | Dec 14 | Mar 15 | Apr 15 | May 15 | Jun 15 | |||
| Total approve | 37% | 12% | 81% | 1% | 26% | 41% | 40% | 35% | 32% | 31% | 33% | 36% | 39% | ||
| Total disapprove | 53% | 83% | 13% | 93% | 63% | 36% | 47% | 58% | 55% | 56% | 58% | 54% | 50% | ||
| Strongly approve | 11% | 2% | 26% | 1% | 5% | 14% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 10% | 11% | ||
| Approve | 26% | 10% | 55% | – | 21% | 27% | 29% | 25% | 24% | 24% | 26% | 26% | 28% | ||
| Disapprove | 24% | 32% | 11% | 28% | 36% | 13% | 20% | 18% | 22% | 22% | 28% | 25% | 23% | ||
| Strongly disapprove | 29% | 51% | 2% | 65% | 27% | 23% | 27% | 40% | 33% | 34% | 30% | 29% | 27% | ||
| Don’t know | 10% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 11% | 23% | 12% | 7% | 12% | 12% | 9% | 11% | 12% |
37% of respondents approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Prime Minister – down 2% since the last time this question was asked in June – and 53% disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing (up 3%). This represents a 5-point change in his net rating from -11 to -16.
81% (no change) of Liberal/National voters approve of Tony Abbott’s performance, with 13% (up 2%) disapproving. 83% of Labor voters and 93% of Greens voters disapprove of Tony Abbott’s performance.
By gender men were 38% approve/56% disapprove and women 35% approve/51% disapprove.
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader?
| Total | Vote Lab | Vote Lib/ Nat |
Vote GRN |
Vote Other | Nov 13 | Mar 14 | June 14 | Dec 14 | Mar 15 | Apr 15 | May 15 | Jun 15 | |||
| Total approve | 27% | 50% | 16% | 20% | 19% | 31% | 32% | 38% | 35% | 34% | 33% | 32% | 32% | ||
| Total disapprove | 52% | 29% | 70% | 62% | 68% | 27% | 39% | 40% | 39% | 39% | 42% | 41% | 45% | ||
| Strongly approve | 5% | 12% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 4% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 6% | ||
| Approve | 22% | 38% | 15% | 18% | 18% | 26% | 28% | 31% | 28% | 29% | 27% | 28% | 26% | ||
| Disapprove | 28% | 22% | 28% | 48% | 30% | 17% | 24% | 22% | 23% | 21% | 25% | 23% | 27% | ||
| Strongly disapprove | 24% | 7% | 42% | 14% | 38% | 10% | 15% | 18% | 16% | 18% | 17% | 18% | 18% | ||
| Don’t know | 21% | 21% | 14% | 19% | 13% | 43% | 29% | 22% | 26% | 27% | 25% | 27% | 22% |
27% (down 5%) of respondents approve of the job Bill Shorten is doing as opposition leader and 52% (up 7%) disapprove – a change in his net rating from -13 to -25, his lowest since becoming leader.
50% (down 8%) of Labor voters approve of the job Bill Shorten is doing and 29% (up 6%) disapprove.
28% of men and 26% of women approve of Bill Shorten. 57% of men and 47% of women disapprove.
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten?
| Total | Vote Lab | Vote Lib/ Nat |
Vote GRN | Vote Other | Oct 13 | Mar 14 | June 14 | Sep 14 | Dec 14 | Mar 15 | Apr 15 | May 15 | Jun 15 | |||
| Tony Abbott | 37% | 9% | 83% | 1% | 33% | 41% | 39% | 36% | 35% | 31% | 33% | 32% | 35% | 38% | ||
| Bill Shorten | 30% | 61% | 3% | 54% | 23% | 22% | 33% | 40% | 36% | 36% | 37% | 35% | 32% | 33% | ||
| Don’t know | 33% | 30% | 14% | 45% | 44% | 37% | 28% | 24% | 30% | 33% | 30% | 33% | 33% | 29% |
37% (down 1% since June) of respondents think Tony Abbott would make the better Prime Minister and 30% (down 3%) think Bill Shorten would make the better Prime Minister. This is Tony Abbott’s best result since April last year.
38% of men prefer Tony Abbott and 31% prefer Bill Shorten – and women prefer Tony Abbott 36% to 29%.
Aboriginal and Torres Straight Islander People, Australian constitution
Q. If a referendum was held to include recognition of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in the Australian Constitution, would you vote for or against?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other | Aug 2014 | |||
| Vote for | 61% | 70% | 54% | 88% | 48% | 58% | ||
| Vote against | 16% | 13% | 21% | 3% | 27% | 10% | ||
| Not sure | 23% | 17% | 25% | 9% | 24% | 32% |
61% would vote in a referendum to include recognition of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in the Australian Constitution and only 16% would vote against. 23% were not sure how they would vote.
This represents an increase since last August for both the yes vote (+3%) and the no vote (+6%) with “not sure” dropping from 32% to 23%.
88% of Greens voters and 70% of Labor voters would vote for the change compared to 54% of Liberal/National voters.
belief in climate change, climate change
Q. Do you believe that there is fairly conclusive evidence that climate change is happening and caused by human activity or do you believe that the evidence is still not in and we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate which happens from time to time?
| Total | Vote Lab | Vote Lib/ Nat | Vote GRN | Vote other | Nov 2009 | Dec 2010 | Jun 2011 | Oct 2012 | Oct 2013 | Dec 2014 | Mar 2015 | |||
| Climate change is happening and is caused by human activity | 56% | 70% | 40% | 95% | 43% | 53% | 45% | 50% | 48% | 52% | 57% | 54% | ||
| We are just witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate | 31% | 20% | 50% | 5% | 42% | 34% | 36% | 39% | 39% | 36% | 29% | 31% | ||
| Don’t know | 12% | 10% | 10% | – | 15% | 13% | 19% | 12% | 13% | 12% | 14% | 15% |
56% (up 2% since March) agree that climate change is happening and is caused by human activity and 31% (no change) believe that we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate. This is the second highest belief in climate change recorded over the last 6 years.
By age groups, those aged under 35 split 63%/21% and those aged 55+ split 47%/45%. People with higher education were more likely to think climate change is happening and is caused by human activity – those with university degrees split 68%/22%.
Action on climate change, climate change
Q. As far as you know, do you think the following countries are doing enough, not enough or too much to address climate change?
| Doing enough | Not doing enough | Doing too much | Don’t know | Doing enough
Dec 2014 |
Not doing enough Dec 2014 | ||
| Australia | 28% | 53% | 6% | 14% | 26% | 51% | |
| USA | 18% | 57% | 3% | 23% | 17% | 53% | |
| China | 11% | 69% | 1% | 19% | 9% | 63% |
53% of respondents think Australia is not doing enough to address climate change – while 57% think the USA is not doing enough and 69% think China is not doing enough. Only 28% think that Australia is doing enough.
Those most likely to think Australia is not doing enough were aged 18-34 (60%), Greens voters (95%), Labor voters (69%) and people with university education (65%).
Carbon emissions, climate change
Q. Australia’s current target to reduce its carbon emissions is a 5% reduction on our 2000 level of emissions by 2020. The Climate Change Authority recently recommended that, because of commitments by other countries, Australia’s target should be 30% below our 2000 level of emissions by 2025. Should Australia:
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other | ||
| Retain its current target of 5% | 18% | 10% | 34% | 3% | 16% | |
| Move to a higher target, such as 10% | 25% | 24% | 28% | 18% | 30% | |
| Move to the recommended target of 30% | 34% | 43% | 17% | 72% | 30% | |
| Not have any target | 7% | 6% | 10% | 2% | 9% | |
| Don’t know | 16% | 17% | 11% | 4% | 15% |
Only 18% think that Australia should retain its current target of 5% reduction in carbon emissions by 2020. 34% think that Australia should move to the recommended target of 30% and 25% think we should move to a higher target such as 10%.
43% of Labor voters and 72% of Greens voters think Australia should move to the 30% target. 34% of Liberal/National voters think Australia should keep the current 5% target while 45% think it should be higher.