Reasons Government is unpopular

Q. Although Australia’s economy is doing very well, according to opinion polls the Government is very unpopular. What do you think is the main reason for this? *

* Based on those who agree the economy is good.

Respondents who thought the economy was doing well, thought the main reasons for the Government’s unpopularity were that voters don’t trust the Prime Minister (27%) and the Labor Party is divided and can’t govern properly (19%).

Both Liberal/National and Greens voters said trust in the Prime Minister was the key issue.

Since May last year, those blaming the impact of the carbon tax has declined from 17% to 7%.

Support for major Government decisions

Q. Do you support or oppose the following Government decisions?

The decision which has the most support amongst respondents is the NBN, with 73% in favour and only 19% opposed – an increase in support since this question was last asked in November (from net +49 to net +54).

There is majority support from respondents for the MRRT, with 57% in favour of the tax and 29% opposed. However, this represents a significant drop in support since November – from net +41 to net +28.

Support for the carbon pricing scheme has declined a little since the last time the question was polled in November. Support has decreased from 46% to 44% and opposition increased from 44% to 46% – a change from net +2 to net -2.

Support for major Government decisions

Q. Do you support or oppose the following Government decisions?

The decision which has the most support amongst respondents is the NBN, with 69% in favour and only 20% opposed.

There is also a similar level of support from respondents for the MRRT, with 63% in favour of the tax and about a third of that amount of respondents (22%) opposed.

Support for the carbon pricing scheme has increased since the last time the question was polled on 2 October 2012.  On that occasion, 38% of respondents supported the carbon tax, whilst 48% were opposed.  The question this week, asked slightly differently in so far as being asked in the context of three Government decisions, nonetheless shows an increase in support for the carbon pricing scheme from 38% to 46% and a drop in opposition from 48% to 44%.

Respondents aged 65+ were the most likely to oppose the carbon tax (57%), the NBN (41%) and the MRRT (36%).

Respondents aged 18-24 were more likely to support the NBN (77%), as were those aged between 25-34 (79%).

Impact of carbon pricing scheme

Q. Since the carbon pricing scheme was introduced on the 1st July this year, has the impact on your household been worse than expected, not as bad as expected or about the same as you expected?

An equal portion of respondents believe the impact on their household of the carbon pricing scheme has been worse than expected (26%) and not as bad as expected (26%).  Thirty six percent (36%) believe it to be about the same as they expected, whilst 12% don’t know.

Looking at results by voting intention, Lib/Nat voters are far more likely to claim the impact on their household of the carbon pricing scheme is worse than expected (39%), compared with Labor voters (12%) and Greens voters (14%).

Support or oppose the carbon tax

Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s carbon pricing scheme which was introduced in July 2012 and requires industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?

Whereas the majority of respondents have opposed the carbon tax since September 2011, this week’s results show that those opposed has fallen 6 points to 48%.

Support for the carbon tax over the same period (since September 2011) has not changed significantly, although since the last time the question was polled in June 2012, support has risen 3 points from 35% to 38%.

Looking at the results by voting intention, Greens voters were the most likely to support the carbon tax (69%), whereas Coalition voters were the most likely to oppose it 76%.

Impact of carbon tax on cost of living

Q. Since the carbon tax was introduced on 1st July, have you noticed any increase in the costs of goods or services?

Responses to this question were changed for this week’s poll from previous results, by separating out the ‘Yes, have noticed an increase in costs’ into three sub-categories: those who claim to have noticed a large increase, a moderate increase and a small increase.

Combining those respondents who believe they have noticed either a large, moderate or small price increases since the carbon tax was introduced, the total yes figure has shifted 17 points up to 69%, from 52% in August 2012.

Looking at the results by voting intention, Coalition voters are by far the most likely to claim to have noticed an increase in the cost of goods and services (83%), compared to 57% of Labor voters and 50% of Greens voters.

Greens voters are the most likely to have not noticed any increase in costs (43%).

Reasons for prices increases under the carbon tax

Q. In respect of the increases to the costs of goods and services that you have noticed, do you believe that they are due to the carbon tax?

The 69% of respondents (n=717) that believed they had noticed a price increase were asked whether they believed the increases were due to the carbon tax.

Sixty two per cent (62%) of these respondents believe that it is due to the carbon tax, whilst 12% do not.  Twenty six per cent (26%) of respondents were not sure.

Looking at the results by voting intention, Coalition voters were the most likely to attribute price increases to the carbon tax (73%) and 8% did not.

Forty five per cent (45%) of Labor voters believe the increases are due to the carbon tax and 22% do not.

Whilst 46% of Greens voters believe that the increases are due to the carbon tax (46%) an almost equal portion (45%) remain unsure.

Decisions of the Labor Government

Q. Thinking about the decisions the Labor Government has made over the last few years, do you think the following decisions were good or bad for Australia?

The two most popular decisions of the Labor Government are ‘expanding dental health services for people on low incomes’ (77% total good) and ‘increasing the tax free threshold from $6,000 to $18,000 (75% total good).   The least popular decisions were ‘Building the NBN’ (43% total good), ‘Abolished WorkChoices’ (42% total good) and ‘introducing a carbon tax to tackle climate change’ (28% total good).

Of the fifteen decisions put to respondents, the majority of respondents believed that 10 of the 15 decisions were good for Australia.  For the remaining 5 decisions, a larger portion of respondents generally regarded the decision to be good for Australia except for ‘introducing a carbon tax to tackle climate change’, where the majority of respondents (51%) believed it to be bad for Australia.

Female respondents were more likely to endorse the dental health reforms (80% total good) compared with male respondents (74% total good).

Increasing the age pension was most strongly supported by respondents aged 65+ (77% total good).

Introducing paid parental leave was more popular with female respondents (57% total good), compared with male respondents (46% total good).  Looking at this decision by age, it was most popular amongst respondents aged 25-34 (62%) and 35-44 (62%) whereas respondents aged 65+ were the most likely to regard the decision as a bad one (36% total bad).

Implementing the recommendations of the expert committee on asylum seekers including offshore processing proved to be a very popular decision amongst respondents aged 65+ (65% total good), whereas respondents aged 25-34 were the most likely to regard it as a bad decision (43% total bad).

Female respondents were more likely to regard ‘protecting large areas of Australia’s marine environment’ as a good decision (72% total good) compared with male respondents (60% total good).

Price Increases Since Carbon Tax

Q. Since the carbon tax was introduced on 1st July, have you noticed any increase in the costs of goods or services?

52% say they have noticed an increase in the costs of goods or services since the carbon tax was introduced – up 21% from 31% recorded the week after the carbon tax was introduced – and 36% say they have not noticed any increase in costs.

Those most likely to say they have noticed an increase in costs were aged 35-54 (56%) and Liberal/National voters (68%).

Main Reason for Price Increases

Q. Do you believe these price increases are due mainly to the carbon tax, or mainly due to other reasons? *

* based on the 52% who have noticed price increases

72% of those who said they had noticed cost increases think it is mainly dues to the carbon tax.

Those most likely to blame the carbon tax were Liberal/National voters (81%), aged under 35 (78%) and those earning over $1,000pw (76%).

Fuzzy Facts From The Empty Suit

The PM is going to be chatting live on-line today at News.com, focused on the question of rising power prices. This should be a pretty straightforward issue, with facts guiding the discussion. But, The Empty Suit, Leader of the Coalition, is trying to muddle the issue…and who can blame him? He’s rolled the dice trying to scare the entire nation about the carbon tax — which is proving to be a non-event.

Yes, prices of electricity are going up. But, it’s pretty clear this has virtually nothing to do with the carbon tax.

Here is a pretty simple explanation from the PM, as a curtain-raiser to her on-line talk:

First, the states who own electricity network businesses are doing well out of it.

Take New South Wales: separate to carbon pricing, there’s been a 70 per cent increase in prices over four years. And there’s been a 60 per cent increase in the dividends that the NSW Government gets.

Second, meeting peak power costs too much. One quarter of your electricity bill, more than $500 a year for a typical family, is spent to meet the costs of peak events that last for less than two days each year in total. It’s like building a ten-lane freeway, but with two lanes that are only used or needed for one long weekend.

Third, customers need more choice. The states should sign up to the National Energy Customer Framework, with strong protections when people can’t pay their electricity bills and extra information to help customers get the best energy deal.

And finally, I am pushing for the whole electricity system to operate more efficiently and more effectively. I’d rather do this with the states. We’ll only use the big stick of stronger powers for the Energy Regulator and the ACCC if we have to.

In other words, it’s the electricity generating companies who are trying to sock us with costs for building up new capacity. In Queensland and Victoria, the power companies have not invested in new capacity since 1998 — and, as the PM points out, they now need to do so largely to absorb peak power needs for just a few days a year. That has zero to do with the carbon tax. None. Nada.

The Empty Suit, though, is in a real box. He has staked a huge part of his campaign on the “sky is falling” results from the carbon tax. So, when you listen to what he says now, pay very little attention because it’s not based on the real facts on the reason for the rise in electricity prices.

– Jonathan Tasini
@jonathantasini