23 July 2013, 230713, 2PP, Greens, Independents, Labor Party, Liberal Party, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,980 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
4 weeks ago 24/6/13 |
2 weeks ago 8/7/13 |
Last week 15/7/13 |
This week 23/7/13 |
| Liberal |
|
44% |
42% |
42% |
42% |
|
| National |
3% |
4% |
4% |
3% |
||
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
47% |
46% |
46% |
45% |
|
| Labor |
38.0% |
34% |
38% |
39% |
39% |
|
| Greens |
11.8% |
8% |
8% |
7% |
7% |
|
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
11% |
7% |
8% |
9% |
| 2 Party Preferred |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
4 weeks ago 24/6/13 |
2 weeks ago 8/7/13 |
Last week 15/7/13 |
This week 23/7/13 |
| Liberal National |
49.9% |
55% |
52% |
52% |
51% |
|
| Labor |
50.1% |
45% |
48% |
48% |
49% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
23 July 2013, 230713, health system, Housing, Important election issues, Interest rates, management of the economy, quality education, water supply
Q. Which are the three most important issues in deciding how you would vote at a Federal election?
|
Total 23 Jul 13 |
|
Total 17 Jun 13 |
11 Feb 13 |
19 Nov 12 |
30 Jul 12 |
5 Dec 11 |
6 June 11 |
25 Jan 10 |
|
| Management of the economy |
45% |
47% |
62% |
66% |
64% |
62% |
61% |
63% |
|
| Ensuring a quality education for all children |
25% |
25% |
29% |
35% |
26% |
22% |
26% |
23% |
|
| Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system |
42% |
45% |
52% |
57% |
47% |
47% |
49% |
48% |
|
| Protecting the environment |
12% |
13% |
14% |
14% |
11% |
13% |
15% |
16% |
|
| A fair industrial relations system |
10% |
10% |
12% |
8% |
12% |
11% |
8% |
na |
|
| Political leadership |
21% |
22% |
14% |
15% |
25% |
18% |
17% |
23% |
|
| Addressing climate change |
11% |
11% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
10% |
15% |
16% |
|
| Controlling interest rates |
13% |
11% |
9% |
11% |
9% |
11% |
13% |
15% |
|
| Australian jobs and protection of local industries |
39% |
34% |
40% |
32% |
41% |
36% |
32% |
33% |
|
| Ensuring a quality water supply |
3% |
5% |
4% |
5% |
3% |
4% |
5% |
12% |
|
| Housing affordability |
17% |
14% |
11% |
14% |
13% |
13% |
16% |
14% |
|
| Ensuring a fair taxation system |
20% |
19% |
21% |
17% |
18% |
16% |
17% |
14% |
|
| Security and the war on terrorism |
8% |
8% |
6% |
5% |
5% |
4% |
8% |
9% |
|
| Treatment of asylum seekers |
14% |
11% |
6% |
6% |
10% |
8% |
5% |
na |
|
| Managing population growth |
9% |
11% |
9% |
7% |
8% |
8% |
12% |
na |
45% of people surveyed rated management of the economy as one of their three most important issues, followed by 42% ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system, 39% Australian jobs and protection of local industries and 25% ensuring a quality education for all children.
There has been little change since this question was asked last month – Australian jobs and protection of local industries is up 5 points to 39% and treatment of asylum seekers is up 3 points (and up 8 points since February) to 14%.
23 July 2013, 230713, Education, environment, health system, management of economy, party trust
Q. Which party would you trust most to handle the following issues?
|
Labor |
Liberal |
Greens |
Don’t know |
|
Difference 23 Jul 13 |
Difference 17 Jun 13 |
|
| Management of the economy |
29% |
44% |
3% |
25% |
-15 |
-18 |
|
| Ensuring a quality education for all children |
40% |
31% |
4% |
25% |
+9 |
+1 |
|
| Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system |
34% |
33% |
7% |
27% |
+1 |
-5 |
|
| Protecting the environment |
19% |
21% |
39% |
21% |
+18 |
+10 |
|
| A fair industrial relations system |
41% |
30% |
4% |
24% |
+11 |
+3 |
|
| Political leadership |
28% |
35% |
5% |
31% |
-7 |
-19 |
|
| Addressing climate change |
20% |
23% |
30% |
27% |
+7 |
– |
|
| Controlling interest rates |
26% |
40% |
2% |
32% |
-14 |
-17 |
|
| Australian jobs and protection of local industries |
34% |
35% |
4% |
26% |
-1 |
-7 |
|
| Ensuring a quality water supply |
19% |
26% |
22% |
32% |
-7 |
-14 |
|
| Housing affordability |
26% |
28% |
6% |
39% |
-2 |
-12 |
|
| Ensuring a fair taxation system |
31% |
33% |
5% |
31% |
-2 |
-11 |
|
| Security and the war on terrorism |
23% |
38% |
4% |
36% |
-15 |
-18 |
|
| Treatment of asylum seekers |
22% |
33% |
13% |
31% |
-11 |
-22 |
|
| Managing population growth |
20% |
33% |
8% |
39% |
-13 |
-19 |
Note – Differences are calculated by subtracting Liberal % from Labor % – except for the two issues on which the Greens lead in which case it is Greens minus Liberal.
On most issues, the Labor Party has gained ground on the Liberals since last month just before Kevin Rudd took over the leadership. However, the Liberal Party has maintained strong leads on management of the economy, controlling interest rates, security and the war on terrorism, treatment of asylum seekers and managing population growth.
Labor has now established a significant lead on a fair industrial relations system and ensuring quality education. The largest shifts to Labor were for quality education (+8), industrial relations (+8), political leadership (+12), housing affordability (+10) and treatment of asylum seekers (+11).
23 July 2013, 230713, carbon pricing scheme, Carbon Tax
Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s carbon pricing scheme which was introduced in July 2012 and requires industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?
|
7 |
14 June |
19 Sep |
21 Nov |
25 Jun 12 |
2 |
29 Jan 13 |
27 May |
|
Total 23 Jul |
|
Vote |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total support |
35% |
38% |
37% |
38% |
35% |
38% |
37% |
43% |
37% |
55% |
17% |
75% |
||
| Total oppose |
48% |
49% |
52% |
53% |
54% |
48% |
50% |
43% |
48% |
30% |
73% |
9% |
||
| Strongly support |
9% |
13% |
14% |
14% |
14% |
12% |
11% |
15% |
13% |
21% |
3% |
35% |
||
| Support |
26% |
25% |
23% |
24% |
21% |
26% |
26% |
28% |
24% |
34% |
14% |
40% |
||
| Oppose |
19% |
19% |
17% |
17% |
19% |
22% |
22% |
20% |
22% |
20% |
26% |
8% |
||
| Strongly oppose |
29% |
30% |
35% |
36% |
35% |
26% |
28% |
23% |
26% |
10% |
47% |
1% |
||
| Don’t know |
18% |
13% |
12% |
10% |
11% |
14% |
12% |
13% |
15% |
15% |
10% |
16% |
Support for carbon pricing has declined significantly since the last time the question was polled in May. Support is down six points to 37% and opposition up five points to 48%.
Looking at the results by voting intention, Labor voters (55%) and Greens voters (75%) were the most likely to support carbon pricing, whereas 73% of Coalition voters oppose it.
23 July 2013, 230713, emissions trading scheme
Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s recent decision to change from the current carbon pricing scheme to an emissions trading scheme which will reduce the price paid by companies from $24 per tonne of carbon pollution to a floating price currently about $6-$10?
|
Total |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total support |
45% |
59% |
42% |
17% |
|
| Total oppose |
29% |
17% |
37% |
58% |
|
| Strongly support |
11% |
22% |
5% |
5% |
|
| Support |
34% |
37% |
37% |
12% |
|
| Oppose |
16% |
10% |
18% |
38% |
|
| Strongly oppose |
13% |
7% |
19% |
20% |
|
| Don’t know |
26% |
24% |
21% |
25% |
45% support the recent decision to change from the current carbon pricing scheme to an emissions trading scheme and 29% oppose.
Both Labor (59% support) and Liberal/National (42%) voters were more likely to support the decision while 58% of Greens voters were opposed.
23 July 2013, 230713, referendum
Q. If a referendum was held to recognise Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in the constitution and to insert a new section to prohibit racial discrimination, would you vote in favour or against this proposal?
|
Total |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Vote in favour |
62% |
69% |
56% |
80% |
|
| Vote against |
16% |
14% |
21% |
3% |
|
| Don’t know |
23% |
17% |
23% |
17% |
62% said they would vote in favour if a referendum was held to recognise Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in the constitution and 16% said they would vote against – 23% don’t know how they would vote.
Strongest support came from women (67%), Labor voters (69%) and Greens voters (80%).