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  • Jul, 2013

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    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    Sample size = 1,980 respondents

    First preference/leaning to

    Election

    21 Aug 10

     

    4 weeks ago

    24/6/13

    2 weeks ago

    8/7/13

    Last week

    15/7/13

    This week

    23/7/13

    Liberal

     

    44%

    42%

    42%

    42%

    National

    3%

    4%

    4%

    3%

    Total Lib/Nat

    43.6%

    47%

    46%

    46%

    45%

    Labor

    38.0%

    34%

    38%

    39%

    39%

    Greens

    11.8%

    8%

    8%

    7%

    7%

    Other/Independent

    6.6%

    11%

    7%

    8%

    9%

     

    2 Party Preferred

    Election

    21 Aug 10

     

    4 weeks ago

    24/6/13

    2 weeks ago

    8/7/13

    Last week

    15/7/13

    This week

    23/7/13

    Liberal National

    49.9%

    55%

    52%

    52%

    51%

    Labor

    50.1%

    45%

    48%

    48%

    49%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

  • Jul, 2013

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    Most important election issues

    Q.  Which are the three most important issues in deciding how you would vote at a Federal election?

     

    Total

    23 Jul 13

     

    Total

    17 Jun 13

    11 Feb 13

    19 Nov 12

    30 Jul 12

    5 Dec 11

    6 June 11

    25 Jan 10

    Management of the economy

    45%

    47%

    62%

    66%

    64%

    62%

    61%

    63%

    Ensuring a quality education for all children

    25%

    25%

    29%

    35%

    26%

    22%

    26%

    23%

    Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system

    42%

    45%

    52%

    57%

    47%

    47%

    49%

    48%

    Protecting the environment

    12%

    13%

    14%

    14%

    11%

    13%

    15%

    16%

    A fair industrial relations system

    10%

    10%

    12%

    8%

    12%

    11%

    8%

    na

    Political leadership

    21%

    22%

    14%

    15%

    25%

    18%

    17%

    23%

    Addressing climate change

    11%

    11%

    9%

    9%

    9%

    10%

    15%

    16%

    Controlling interest rates

    13%

    11%

    9%

    11%

    9%

    11%

    13%

    15%

    Australian jobs and protection of local industries

    39%

    34%

    40%

    32%

    41%

    36%

    32%

    33%

    Ensuring a quality water supply

    3%

    5%

    4%

    5%

    3%

    4%

    5%

    12%

    Housing affordability

    17%

    14%

    11%

    14%

    13%

    13%

    16%

    14%

    Ensuring a fair taxation system

    20%

    19%

    21%

    17%

    18%

    16%

    17%

    14%

    Security and the war on terrorism

    8%

    8%

    6%

    5%

    5%

    4%

    8%

    9%

    Treatment of asylum seekers

    14%

    11%

    6%

    6%

    10%

    8%

    5%

    na

    Managing population growth

    9%

    11%

    9%

    7%

    8%

    8%

    12%

    na

    45% of people surveyed rated management of the economy as one of their three most important issues, followed by 42% ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system, 39% Australian jobs and protection of local industries and 25% ensuring a quality education for all children.

    There has been little change since this question was asked last month – Australian jobs and protection of local industries is up 5 points to 39% and treatment of asylum seekers is up 3 points (and up 8 points since February) to 14%.

  • Jul, 2013

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    Party trust to handle issues

    Q.  Which party would you trust most to handle the following issues?

     

    Labor

    Liberal

    Greens

    Don’t know

     

    Difference 23 Jul 13

    Difference 17 Jun 13

    Management of the economy

    29%

    44%

    3%

    25%

    -15

    -18

    Ensuring a quality education for all children

    40%

    31%

    4%

    25%

    +9

    +1

    Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system

    34%

    33%

    7%

    27%

    +1

    -5

    Protecting the environment

    19%

    21%

    39%

    21%

    +18

    +10

    A fair industrial relations system

    41%

    30%

    4%

    24%

    +11

    +3

    Political leadership

    28%

    35%

    5%

    31%

    -7

    -19

    Addressing climate change

    20%

    23%

    30%

    27%

    +7

    Controlling interest rates

    26%

    40%

    2%

    32%

    -14

    -17

    Australian jobs and protection of local industries

    34%

    35%

    4%

    26%

    -1

    -7

    Ensuring a quality water supply

    19%

    26%

    22%

    32%

    -7

    -14

    Housing affordability

    26%

    28%

    6%

    39%

    -2

    -12

    Ensuring a fair taxation system

    31%

    33%

    5%

    31%

    -2

    -11

    Security and the war on terrorism

    23%

    38%

    4%

    36%

    -15

    -18

    Treatment of asylum seekers

    22%

    33%

    13%

    31%

    -11

    -22

    Managing population growth

    20%

    33%

    8%

    39%

    -13

    -19

    Note – Differences are calculated by subtracting Liberal % from Labor % – except for the two issues on which the Greens lead in which case it is Greens minus Liberal.

    On most issues, the Labor Party has gained ground on the Liberals since last month just before Kevin Rudd took over the leadership. However, the Liberal Party has maintained strong leads on management of the economy, controlling interest rates, security and the war on terrorism, treatment of asylum seekers and managing population growth.

    Labor has now established a significant lead on a fair industrial relations system and ensuring quality education. The largest shifts to Labor were for quality education (+8), industrial relations (+8), political leadership (+12), housing affordability (+10) and treatment of asylum seekers (+11).

  • Jul, 2013

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    Carbon pricing

    Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s carbon pricing scheme which was introduced in July 2012 and requires industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?

     

    7
    Mar 11

    14 June

    19 Sep

    21 Nov

    25 Jun 12

    2
    Oct

    29 Jan 13

    27 May

     

    Total 23 Jul

     

    Vote
    ALP

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Total support

    35%

    38%

    37%

    38%

    35%

    38%

    37%

    43%

    37%

    55%

    17%

    75%

    Total oppose

    48%

    49%

    52%

    53%

    54%

    48%

    50%

    43%

    48%

    30%

    73%

    9%

    Strongly support

    9%

    13%

    14%

    14%

    14%

    12%

    11%

    15%

    13%

    21%

    3%

    35%

    Support

    26%

    25%

    23%

    24%

    21%

    26%

    26%

    28%

    24%

    34%

    14%

    40%

    Oppose

    19%

    19%

    17%

    17%

    19%

    22%

    22%

    20%

    22%

    20%

    26%

    8%

    Strongly oppose

    29%

    30%

    35%

    36%

    35%

    26%

    28%

    23%

    26%

    10%

    47%

    1%

    Don’t know

    18%

    13%

    12%

    10%

    11%

    14%

    12%

    13%

    15%

    15%

    10%

    16%

    Support for carbon pricing has declined significantly since the last time the question was polled in May. Support is down six points to 37% and opposition up five points to 48%.

    Looking at the results by voting intention, Labor voters (55%) and Greens voters (75%) were the most likely to support carbon pricing, whereas 73% of Coalition voters oppose it.

  • Jul, 2013

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    Emissions Trading Scheme

    Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s recent decision to change from the current carbon pricing scheme to an emissions trading scheme which will reduce the price paid by companies from $24 per tonne of carbon pollution to a floating price currently about $6-$10?

     

    Total

     

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Total support

    45%

    59%

    42%

    17%

    Total oppose

    29%

    17%

    37%

    58%

    Strongly support

    11%

    22%

    5%

    5%

    Support

    34%

    37%

    37%

    12%

    Oppose

    16%

    10%

    18%

    38%

    Strongly oppose

    13%

    7%

    19%

    20%

    Don’t know

    26%

    24%

    21%

    25%

    45% support the recent decision to change from the current carbon pricing scheme to an emissions trading scheme and 29% oppose.

    Both Labor (59% support) and Liberal/National (42%) voters were more likely to support the decision while 58% of Greens voters were opposed.

  • Jul, 2013

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    Referendum

    Q. If a referendum was held to recognise Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in the constitution and to insert a new section to prohibit racial discrimination, would you vote in favour or against this proposal?

     

    Total

     

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Vote in favour

    62%

    69%

    56%

    80%

    Vote against

    16%

    14%

    21%

    3%

    Don’t know

    23%

    17%

    23%

    17%

    62% said they would vote in favour if a referendum was held to recognise Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in the constitution and 16% said they would vote against – 23% don’t know how they would vote.

    Strongest support came from women (67%), Labor voters (69%) and Greens voters (80%).

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