Federal politics – voting intention

Aug 1, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

sample size = 1,899

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 46% 46% 45% 46%
National 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6 49% 49% 48% 49%
Labor 38.0 32% 31% 32% 31%
Greens 11.8 11% 11% 11% 11%
Other/Independent 6.6 9% 9% 9% 9%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 56% 56% 55% 56%
Labor 50.1% 44% 44% 45% 44%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Federal politics – voting intention

Jul 11, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

sample size = 1,899

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 44% 45% 46% 47%
National 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6 46% 48% 49% 50%
Labor 38.0 34% 32% 32% 30%
Greens 11.8 12% 11% 11% 11%
Other/Independent 6.6 8% 9% 9% 9%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 54% 55% 56% 57%
Labor 50.1% 46% 45% 44% 43%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Voluntary Voting

Jul 11, 2011

Q. If voting at elections was voluntary (i.e. not compulsory) – how likely would you be to vote in the next Federal election?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total definitely/probably vote 82% 85% 89% 78%
Total definitely/probably not vote 14% 12% 9% 19%
Would definitely vote 59% 62% 65% 61%
Would probably vote 23% 23% 24% 17%
Probably wouldn’t vote 10% 8% 7% 18%
Definitely wouldn’t vote 4% 4% 2% 1%
Don’t know 4% 3% 1% 3%

82% said they would definitely or probably vote if voting was voluntary. 14% said they definitely or probably would not vote.

Coalition and Labor voters were more likely to vote and Greens voters somewhat less likely.

By age, 73% of those aged under 35 said they would vote compared to 82% of those aged 35-54 and 91% of those aged 55+.

The estimated vote excluding those who would probably or definitely not vote produces a first preference vote of 52% Liberal/National, 30% Labor, 11% Greens and 7% other. The two-party preferred estimate is 58% Liberal/National and 42% Labor (compared to the current estimate of 57%/43%) – suggesting that voluntary voting would only very slightly advantage the Coalition.

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Preferred Voting System

Jul 11, 2011

Q. Which of the following voting systems would you prefer when voting for the Federal House of Representatives.

  • A preferential voting system where voters rank all candidates in order of preference.
  • An optional preferential system where voters can rank one, some, or all candidates in order of preference.
  • A “first past the post” system, where voters only vote for one candidate and the candidate with the most votes wins.
Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Preferential 22% 31% 18% 30%
Optional preferential 26% 26% 24% 33%
First past the post 44% 40% 53% 31%
Don’t know 7% 4% 4% 6%

Of the three voting options given, 44% favoured “first past the post”, 26% optional preferential and 22% the current preferential system.

Optional preferential was most preferred by those aged under 35 (35%) while older groups strongly favoured first past the post (50% of aged 35-54 and 54% of aged 55+).

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Federal politics – voting intention

Jun 27, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

sample size = 1,874

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 44% 44% 45% 45%
National 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6 47% 46% 47% 48%
Labor 38.0 34% 34% 32% 32%
Greens 11.8 12% 12% 12% 11%
Other/Independent 6.6 8% 8% 9% 9%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 54% 54% 55% 55%
Labor 50.1% 46% 46% 45% 45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Federal politics – voting intention

Jun 20, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

sample size = 2068

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 44% 44% 44% 45%
National 3% 2% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6 46% 46% 46% 47%
Labor 38.0 34% 34% 34% 32%
Greens 11.8 12% 12% 12% 12%
Other/Independent 6.6 8% 8% 8% 9%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 53% 53% 54% 55%
Labor 50.1% 47% 47% 46% 45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Important election issues

Jun 6, 2011

Q. Which are the three most important issues in deciding how you would vote at a Federal election?

One Two Three Total 24 Jan 11 11 Oct 10 25 Jan 10
Management of the economy 34% 18% 9% 61% 65% 62% 63%
Ensuring a quality education for all children 6% 10% 10% 26% 26% 32% 23%
Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system 15% 15% 19% 49% 49% 48% 48%
Protecting the environment 4% 6% 5% 15% 13% 12% 16%
A fair industrial relations system 2% 3% 3% 8% 10% 11% *
Political leadership 6% 6% 5% 17% 16% 16% 23%
Addressing climate change 6% 4% 5% 15% 10% 11% 16%
Controlling interest rates 3% 5% 5% 13% 21% 17% 15%
Australian jobs and protection of local industries 9% 11% 12% 32% 30% 30% 33%
Ensuring a quality water supply 1% 1% 3% 5% 6% 6% 12%
Housing affordability 4% 6% 6% 16% 16% 17% 14%
Ensuring a fair taxation system 3% 6% 8% 17% 18% 16% 14%
Security and the war on terrorism 2% 2% 4% 8% 5% 6% 9%
Treatment of asylum seekers 1% 2% 2% 5% 5% 5% *
Managing population growth 2% 4% 6% 12% 11% 10% *

*Not asked

61% of people surveyed rated management of the economy as one of their three most important issues, followed by 49% ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system and 32% Australian jobs and protection of local industries.

Since January, there has been an increase in the importance of addressing climate change (from 10% to 15%) and a decrease in the importance of controlling interest rates (from 21% to 13%).

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Federal politics – voting intention

May 30, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

sample size = 1,893

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 44% 43% 44% 44%
National 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6 47% 46% 46% 47%
Labor 38.0 35% 36% 34% 34%
Greens 11.8 9% 11% 12% 12%
Other/Independent 6.6 9% 7% 8% 8%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 54% 52% 53% 54%
Labor 50.1% 46% 48% 47% 46%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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