2PP, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, two party preferred, voting, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,899
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 46% | 46% | 45% | 46% | |
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6 | 49% | 49% | 48% | 49% |
| Labor | 38.0 | 32% | 31% | 32% | 31% |
| Greens | 11.8 | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6 | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 56% | 56% | 55% | 56% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 44% | 44% | 45% | 44% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
2PP, Essential Report, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, two party preferred, voting, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,899
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 44% | 45% | 46% | 47% | |
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6 | 46% | 48% | 49% | 50% |
| Labor | 38.0 | 34% | 32% | 32% | 30% |
| Greens | 11.8 | 12% | 11% | 11% | 11% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6 | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 54% | 55% | 56% | 57% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 46% | 45% | 44% | 43% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
Election, Essential Report, federal politics, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, voting, voting system
Q. If voting at elections was voluntary (i.e. not compulsory) – how likely would you be to vote in the next Federal election?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total definitely/probably vote | 82% | 85% | 89% | 78% |
| Total definitely/probably not vote | 14% | 12% | 9% | 19% |
| Would definitely vote | 59% | 62% | 65% | 61% |
| Would probably vote | 23% | 23% | 24% | 17% |
| Probably wouldn’t vote | 10% | 8% | 7% | 18% |
| Definitely wouldn’t vote | 4% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| Don’t know | 4% | 3% | 1% | 3% |
82% said they would definitely or probably vote if voting was voluntary. 14% said they definitely or probably would not vote.
Coalition and Labor voters were more likely to vote and Greens voters somewhat less likely.
By age, 73% of those aged under 35 said they would vote compared to 82% of those aged 35-54 and 91% of those aged 55+.
The estimated vote excluding those who would probably or definitely not vote produces a first preference vote of 52% Liberal/National, 30% Labor, 11% Greens and 7% other. The two-party preferred estimate is 58% Liberal/National and 42% Labor (compared to the current estimate of 57%/43%) – suggesting that voluntary voting would only very slightly advantage the Coalition.
Essential Report, Greens, house of representatives, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, voting, voting system
Q. Which of the following voting systems would you prefer when voting for the Federal House of Representatives.
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Preferential | 22% | 31% | 18% | 30% |
| Optional preferential | 26% | 26% | 24% | 33% |
| First past the post | 44% | 40% | 53% | 31% |
| Don’t know | 7% | 4% | 4% | 6% |
Of the three voting options given, 44% favoured “first past the post”, 26% optional preferential and 22% the current preferential system.
Optional preferential was most preferred by those aged under 35 (35%) while older groups strongly favoured first past the post (50% of aged 35-54 and 54% of aged 55+).
2PP, Essential Report, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, two party preferred, voting, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,874
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 44% | 44% | 45% | 45% | |
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6 | 47% | 46% | 47% | 48% |
| Labor | 38.0 | 34% | 34% | 32% | 32% |
| Greens | 11.8 | 12% | 12% | 12% | 11% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6 | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 54% | 54% | 55% | 55% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 46% | 46% | 45% | 45% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
2PP, Election, Essential Media, Essential Report, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, voting, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 2068
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 44% | 44% | 44% | 45% | |
| National | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6 | 46% | 46% | 46% | 47% |
| Labor | 38.0 | 34% | 34% | 34% | 32% |
| Greens | 11.8 | 12% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6 | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 53% | 53% | 54% | 55% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 47% | 47% | 46% | 45% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
2PP, asylum seekers, climate change, economy, Election, Election Issues, Essential Report, fair industrial relations system, Greens, Labor, leadership, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, voting, Voting intention
Q. Which are the three most important issues in deciding how you would vote at a Federal election?
| One | Two | Three | Total | 24 Jan 11 | 11 Oct 10 | 25 Jan 10 | |
| Management of the economy | 34% | 18% | 9% | 61% | 65% | 62% | 63% |
| Ensuring a quality education for all children | 6% | 10% | 10% | 26% | 26% | 32% | 23% |
| Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system | 15% | 15% | 19% | 49% | 49% | 48% | 48% |
| Protecting the environment | 4% | 6% | 5% | 15% | 13% | 12% | 16% |
| A fair industrial relations system | 2% | 3% | 3% | 8% | 10% | 11% | * |
| Political leadership | 6% | 6% | 5% | 17% | 16% | 16% | 23% |
| Addressing climate change | 6% | 4% | 5% | 15% | 10% | 11% | 16% |
| Controlling interest rates | 3% | 5% | 5% | 13% | 21% | 17% | 15% |
| Australian jobs and protection of local industries | 9% | 11% | 12% | 32% | 30% | 30% | 33% |
| Ensuring a quality water supply | 1% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 12% |
| Housing affordability | 4% | 6% | 6% | 16% | 16% | 17% | 14% |
| Ensuring a fair taxation system | 3% | 6% | 8% | 17% | 18% | 16% | 14% |
| Security and the war on terrorism | 2% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 5% | 6% | 9% |
| Treatment of asylum seekers | 1% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 5% | 5% | * |
| Managing population growth | 2% | 4% | 6% | 12% | 11% | 10% | * |
*Not asked
61% of people surveyed rated management of the economy as one of their three most important issues, followed by 49% ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system and 32% Australian jobs and protection of local industries.
Since January, there has been an increase in the importance of addressing climate change (from 10% to 15%) and a decrease in the importance of controlling interest rates (from 21% to 13%).
2PP, Essential Report, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, two party preferred, voting, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,893
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 44% | 43% | 44% | 44% | |
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6 | 47% | 46% | 46% | 47% |
| Labor | 38.0 | 35% | 36% | 34% | 34% |
| Greens | 11.8 | 9% | 11% | 12% | 12% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6 | 9% | 7% | 8% | 8% |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 54% | 52% | 53% | 54% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 46% | 48% | 47% | 46% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.