2 party preferred, 20 August 2012, 200812, 2PP, federal politics voting intention, first preference vote
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,864 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 23/7/12 |
2 weeks ago 6/8/12 |
Last week 13/8/12 |
This week 20/8/12 |
| Liberal |
|
45% |
46% |
46% |
46% |
| National |
|
4% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
49% |
49% |
49% |
49% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
33% |
33% |
32% |
32% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
8% |
8% |
9% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
56% |
56% |
56% |
57% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
44% |
44% |
44% |
43% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
20 August 2012, 200812, cpst of electricity, gas power, price increase
Q. Over the last few years, have your gas and/or electricity costs increased, decreased or stayed much the same?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total increased |
86% |
84% |
90% |
72% |
| Increased a lot |
42% |
35% |
48% |
23% |
| Increased a moderate amount |
29% |
30% |
30% |
31% |
| Increased a little |
15% |
19% |
12% |
18% |
| Stayed about the same |
7% |
9% |
5% |
13% |
| Decreased a little |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
| Decreased a moderate amount |
* |
– |
* |
2% |
| Decreased a lot |
1% |
2% |
* |
4% |
| Don’t know |
4% |
4% |
2% |
8% |
42% think that gas and electricity prices have increased a lot over the last few years and 29% think they have increased a moderate amount. Only 9% think they have stayed about the same or decreased.
Those most likely to think they have increased a lot were aged 45+ (49%), Liberal/National voters (48%) and Victorians (47%).
20 August 2012, 200812, cost increase, electricity, Federal Government, power, power companies, responsible, state government
Q. Who do you think is mainly responsible for electricity and gas prices?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Increased a lot |
Increased a moderate amount |
Increased a little |
Stayed the same or decreased |
|
| The Federal Government |
28% |
16% |
40% |
18% |
40% |
22% |
19% |
22% |
| The State Government |
23% |
27% |
21% |
28% |
23% |
28% |
21% |
18% |
| The power companies |
37% |
50% |
28% |
42% |
32% |
42% |
44% |
38% |
| Don’t know |
12% |
7% |
10% |
12% |
6% |
9% |
17% |
21% |
37% think the power companies are mainly responsible for electricity and gas prices, 28% think the Federal Government is mainly responsible and 23% think the State Governments are mainly responsible.
Those who think power prices have increased a lot are more likely to think the Federal Government is mainly responsible (40%), while those who think prices have increased a moderate amount, a little or not at all think the power companies are mainly responsible.
50% of Labor voters think the power companies are mainly responsible and 40% of Liberal/National voters think the Federal Government is mainly responsible.
20 August 2012, 200812, Carbon Tax, cost of living, goods or services, increase
Q. Since the carbon tax was introduced on 1st July, have you noticed any increase in the costs of goods or services?
|
Total 9 July |
Total 20 Aug |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Yes, have noticed an increase in costs |
31% |
52% |
34% |
68% |
29% |
| No, have not noticed any increase in costs |
54% |
36% |
54% |
21% |
64% |
| Don’t know |
15% |
12% |
12% |
11% |
7% |
52% say they have noticed an increase in the costs of goods or services since the carbon tax was introduced – up 21% from 31% recorded the week after the carbon tax was introduced – and 36% say they have not noticed any increase in costs.
Those most likely to say they have noticed an increase in costs were aged 35-54 (56%) and Liberal/National voters (68%).
20 August 2012, 200812, Carbon Tax, price increase
Q. Do you believe these price increases are due mainly to the carbon tax, or mainly due to other reasons? *
|
Total
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Mainly due to carbon tax |
72% |
53% |
81% |
70% |
| Mainly due to other reasons |
17% |
36% |
9% |
18% |
| Don’t know |
11% |
12% |
10% |
13% |
* based on the 52% who have noticed price increases
72% of those who said they had noticed cost increases think it is mainly dues to the carbon tax.
Those most likely to blame the carbon tax were Liberal/National voters (81%), aged under 35 (78%) and those earning over $1,000pw (76%).
20 August 2012, 200812, asylum seekers, detention centre facilities, federal government recommendations, humanitarian program, manu, nauru, refugees
Q. An expert panel appointed by the Federal Government has made a number of recommendations for handling asylum seekers arriving in Australia by boat. Do you approve or disapprove of the following recommendations?
|
Total approve |
Total disapprove |
Strongly approve |
Approve |
Dis-approve |
Strongly disapprove |
Don’t know |
|
| Expanding Australia’s humanitarian program immediately from 13,500 places per year to 20,000 |
42% |
46% |
13% |
29% |
20% |
26% |
12% |
| Limiting the ways refugees who have arrived by boat can bring their families to Australia |
72% |
18% |
40% |
32% |
11% |
7% |
11% |
| Reopening detention facilities in Nauru and Manus Islands |
67% |
18% |
36% |
31% |
11% |
7% |
14% |
| Detaining offshore refugees who have arrived by boat for several years |
47% |
39% |
26% |
21% |
22% |
17% |
13% |
| Pursuing a people swap deal with Malaysia as the basis for a regional solution |
30% |
47% |
11% |
19% |
22% |
25% |
23% |
| Consider turning back boats in the future but only if special conditions are met |
66% |
21% |
35% |
31% |
11% |
10% |
13% |
There was strong majority approval of the recommendations to limit the ways refugees who have arrived by boat can bring their families to Australia (72%), reopen detention facilities in Nauru and Manus Islands (67%) and consider turning back boats (66%). Respondents were a little more in favour of detaining offshore refugees for several years (47% approve/39% disapprove) and divided over expanding Australia’s humanitarian program (42%/46%). 47% disapproved of pursuing a people swap deal with Malaysia as the basis for a regional solution.
48% of Labor voters and 81% of Greens voters approved expanding Australia’s humanitarian aid but 54% of Liberal/National voters disapproved.
48% of Labor voters approved pursuing a people swap deal with Malaysia but 59% of Liberal/National voters disapproved.
45% of Labor voters and 81% of Liberal/National voters approved turning back boats but 56% of Greens voters disapproved.
Men favoured detaining refugees for several years (58% approve/31% disapprove while women were more likely to be opposed (38% approve/46% disapprove).
20 August 2012, 200812, Federal Government, recommendations
Q. The Federal Government and the Opposition have agreed to implement all of these recommendations. Do you approve or disapprove of implementing all the recommendations of the panel?
|
Total
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total approve |
62% |
65% |
70% |
34% |
| Total disapprove |
21% |
22% |
16% |
56% |
| Strongly approve |
17% |
17% |
22% |
3% |
| Approve |
45% |
48% |
48% |
31% |
| Disapprove |
16% |
19% |
12% |
33% |
| Strongly disapprove |
5% |
3% |
4% |
23% |
| Don’t know |
16% |
13% |
13% |
10% |
62% approved of implementing all of the panel’s recommendations – 65% of Labor voters, 70% of Liberal/National voters but only 34% of Greens voters.
Those most likely to approve were men (68%), aged 55+ (75%) and those on incomes under $600pw (70%).
Correction: We have been advised that the Coalition has not formally responded to each the recommendations of the Houston Panel. Our question was framed soon after the release of the expert panel’s report when it appeared that the Coalition would accept the panel’s recommendations. Therefore, the responses to this question may not accurately represent public opinion.
20 August 2012, 200812, asylum seekers, fair treatment, government costs
Q. How effective do you think the panel recommendations will be in terms of –
|
Very effective |
Quite effective |
A little effective |
Not effective |
Don’t know |
|
| Stopping boats of asylum seekers landing in Australia |
12% |
19% |
34% |
24% |
11% |
| Providing fair treatment for genuine asylum seekers |
11% |
29% |
32% |
18% |
11% |
| Keeping Government costs down |
8% |
13% |
27% |
36% |
16% |
31% think the recommendations will be very/quite effective in stopping boats, 40% very/quite effective in providing fair treatment for genuine asylum seekers and 21% very/quite effective in keeping Government costs down.
38% of Liberal/National voters, 32% of Labor voters and 15% of Greens voters think they will be very/quite effective in stopping boats.
48% of Liberal/National voters, 41% of Labor voters and 16% of Greens voters think they will be very/quite effective in providing fair treatment for genuine asylum seekers.
27% of Liberal/National voters, 20% of Labor voters and 12% of Greens voters think they will be very/quite effective in keeping Government costs down.