17 June 2013, 170613, 2PP, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,913 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
4 weeks ago 20/5/13 |
2 weeks ago 3/6/13 |
Last week 11/6/13 |
This week 17/6/13 |
| Liberal |
|
45% |
45% |
44% |
44% |
|
| National |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
||
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
48% |
48% |
47% |
47% |
|
| Labor |
38.0% |
35% |
35% |
36% |
35% |
|
| Greens |
11.8% |
8% |
8% |
8% |
8% |
|
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
| 2 Party Preferred |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
4 weeks ago 20/5/13 |
2 weeks ago 3/6/13 |
Last week 11/6/13 |
This week 17/6/13 |
| Liberal National |
49.9% |
55% |
55% |
54% |
54% |
|
| Labor |
50.1% |
45% |
45% |
46% |
46% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
17 June 2013, 170613, 2010 vote
Q. Which party did you vote for in the last Federal election in 2010?
|
Total |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Labor |
39% |
85% |
12% |
22% |
|
| Liberal |
34% |
3% |
74% |
1% |
|
| National |
3% |
* |
6% |
3% |
|
| Greens |
7% |
4% |
1% |
67% |
|
| Democrats |
1% |
1% |
– |
– |
|
| Family First |
1% |
* |
1% |
– |
|
| Independent or other party |
3% |
1% |
1% |
– |
|
| Didn’t vote |
7% |
5% |
3% |
7% |
|
| Don’t know |
4% |
1% |
1% |
– |
85% of intending Labor voters said they voted Labor in the last election and 9% voted for other parties.
80% of intending Liberal/National voters said they voted Liberal/National in the last election, 12% said they voted Labor and 3% other parties.
67% of intending Greens voters said they voted Greens in the last election, 22% said they voted Labor and 4% other parties.
17 June 2013, 170613, better leader, better policy, reason for changing vote
Q. You say you currently intend to vote for a different party to the one you voted for in the last election. What is the main reason you have changed your vote to that party? (table based on those who have changed their vote)
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| They have better policies |
11% |
21% |
15% |
12% |
| They have a better leader |
11% |
27% |
7% |
– |
| They are more trustworthy |
15% |
7% |
19% |
44% |
| They are more competent |
12% |
– |
20% |
7% |
| They will be better for Australia’s future |
23% |
35% |
22% |
19% |
| They will be better for me personally |
3% |
– |
– |
13% |
| Other reason |
18% |
10% |
15% |
4% |
| Don’t know |
8% |
2% |
2% |
– |
Note: Samples for voting intention columns are small – 8% of respondents have changed to Liberal/National, 3% to Labor and 2% to the Greens.
22% of those who have changed their vote to Liberal/National say the main reason is they will be better for Australia’s future, 20% say they are more competent and 19% more trustworthy.
Although sample sizes are very small, those changing their vote to Labor say they will be better for Australia’s future (35%) and they have a better leader (27%). Those switching their vote to the Greens tend to say they are more trustworthy (44%).
17 June 2013, 170613, Important election issues
Q. Which are the three most important issues in deciding how you would vote at a Federal election?
|
Total 17 Jun 13 |
11 Feb 13 |
19 Nov 12 |
30 Jul 12 |
5 Dec 11 |
6 June 11 |
25 Jan 10 |
|
| Management of the economy |
47% |
62% |
66% |
64% |
62% |
61% |
63% |
| Ensuring a quality education for all children |
25% |
29% |
35% |
26% |
22% |
26% |
23% |
| Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system |
45% |
52% |
57% |
47% |
47% |
49% |
48% |
| Protecting the environment |
13% |
14% |
14% |
11% |
13% |
15% |
16% |
| A fair industrial relations system |
10% |
12% |
8% |
12% |
11% |
8% |
na |
| Political leadership |
22% |
14% |
15% |
25% |
18% |
17% |
23% |
| Addressing climate change |
11% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
10% |
15% |
16% |
| Controlling interest rates |
11% |
9% |
11% |
9% |
11% |
13% |
15% |
| Australian jobs and protection of local industries |
34% |
40% |
32% |
41% |
36% |
32% |
33% |
| Ensuring a quality water supply |
5% |
4% |
5% |
3% |
4% |
5% |
12% |
| Housing affordability |
14% |
11% |
14% |
13% |
13% |
16% |
14% |
| Ensuring a fair taxation system |
19% |
21% |
17% |
18% |
16% |
17% |
14% |
| Security and the war on terrorism |
8% |
6% |
5% |
5% |
4% |
8% |
9% |
| Treatment of asylum seekers |
11% |
6% |
6% |
10% |
8% |
5% |
na |
| Managing population growth |
11% |
9% |
7% |
8% |
8% |
12% |
na |
47% of people surveyed rated management of the economy as one of their three most important issues, followed by 45% ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system, 34% Australian jobs and protection of local industries and 25% ensuring a quality education for all children.
Since February, there has been a decline in the importance of managing the economy (-15%), ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system (-7%) and Australian jobs and protection of local industries (-6%) and an increase in political leadership (+8%).
17 June 2013, 170613, economic management, Education, environment, health system, party trust
Q. Which party would you trust most to handle the following issues?
|
Labor |
Liberal |
Greens |
Don’t know |
Difference 17 Jun 13 |
Difference 11 Feb 13 |
Difference 19 Nov 12 |
Difference 18 Jun 12 |
|
| Management of the economy |
28% |
46% |
2% |
24% |
-18 |
-15 |
-14 |
-18 |
| Ensuring a quality education for all children |
37% |
36% |
4% |
23% |
+1 |
+2 |
+5 |
-2 |
| Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system |
32% |
37% |
6% |
26% |
-5 |
-3 |
-3 |
-6 |
| Protecting the environment |
19% |
24% |
34% |
22% |
+10 |
+18 |
+16 |
+17 |
| A fair industrial relations system |
37% |
34% |
5% |
24% |
+3 |
+6 |
+9 |
+6 |
| Political leadership |
23% |
42% |
5% |
30% |
-19 |
-8 |
-12 |
-16 |
| Addressing climate change |
19% |
26% |
26% |
28% |
– |
+5 |
+9 |
+7 |
| Controlling interest rates |
25% |
42% |
2% |
31% |
-17 |
-14 |
-11 |
-18 |
| Australian jobs and protection of local industries |
30% |
37% |
4% |
29% |
-7 |
-3 |
-2 |
-6 |
| Ensuring a quality water supply |
19% |
33% |
18% |
31% |
-14 |
-6 |
-7 |
-12 |
| Housing affordability |
24% |
36% |
5% |
35% |
-12 |
-6 |
-5 |
-11 |
| Ensuring a fair taxation system |
28% |
39% |
4% |
29% |
-11 |
-6 |
-9 |
-10 |
| Security and the war on terrorism |
23% |
41% |
3% |
34% |
-18 |
-13 |
-15 |
-22 |
| Treatment of asylum seekers |
17% |
39% |
12% |
32% |
-22 |
-17 |
-18 |
-20 |
| Managing population growth |
18% |
37% |
8% |
38% |
-19 |
-12 |
-15 |
-19 |
Note – Differences are calculated by subtracting Liberal % from Labor % – except for the two issues on which the Greens lead in which case it is Greens minus Liberal.
The Liberal Party has maintained strong leads on management of the economy, controlling interest rates, political leadership, security and the war on terrorism, treatment of asylum seekers and managing population growth.
There is little difference between Labor and the Liberals on ensuring a quality education for all children and a fair industrial relations system. Since February, there have been significant shifts to the Liberals on protecting the environment, political leadership, ensuring a quality water supply and managing population growth.
17 June 2013, 170613, Greens asylum seeker policy, Labor asylum seeker policy, Liberal asyum seeker policy
Q. Which party has the best policy for handling the issue of asylum seekers arriving by boat?
|
Total |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Labor |
13% |
36% |
2% |
4% |
|
| Liberal |
38% |
8% |
74% |
4% |
|
| Greens |
7% |
8% |
1% |
55% |
|
| None of them |
31% |
36% |
18% |
27% |
|
| Don’t know |
11% |
13% |
6% |
9% |
38% think the Liberal Party has the best policy for handling the issue of asylum seekers arriving by boat and 13% think the Labor Party has the best policy. 31% think no party has the best policy.
Only 36% of Labor voters think the Labor Party has the best policy compared with 74% of Liberal/National voters who think the Liberals have the best policy.
Of those who think the asylum seeker issue is one of or the most important election issue, 59% think that the Liberals have the best policy, 12% think Labor has the best policy and 18% think none of them do.
17 June 2013, 170613, asylum seekers, federal election issues
Q. How important is the asylum seeker issue of in deciding which party you will vote for in the Federal election?
|
Total |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| The most important issue |
6% |
5% |
7% |
– |
|
| One of the most important issues |
28% |
16% |
39% |
27% |
|
| Quite important but not as important as other issues |
37% |
43% |
35% |
31% |
|
| Not very important |
14% |
16% |
11% |
18% |
|
| Not at all important |
10% |
14% |
6% |
20% |
|
| Don’t know |
5% |
5% |
2% |
5% |
34% of respondents think the asylum seeker issue is the most important or one of the most important election issues.
46% of Liberal/National voters think it is one of or the most important issues.