Likelihood of extreme events
Q. Do you think that, over the next few years, Australia will be more or less likely to experience severe bushfires and extreme weather events like floods and cyclones?
|
Total |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Vote other |
|
| Total more likely |
63% |
72% |
49% |
86% |
65% |
|
| Total less likely |
1% |
1% |
* |
2% |
3% |
|
| A lot more likely |
33% |
41% |
19% |
61% |
31% |
|
| A little more likely |
30% |
31% |
30% |
25% |
34% |
|
| About the same |
33% |
26% |
47% |
11% |
29% |
|
| A little less likely |
1% |
1% |
– |
2% |
2% |
|
| A lot less likely |
* |
– |
* |
– |
1% |
|
| Don’t know |
4% |
1% |
4% |
1% |
4% |
63% think that sever bushfires and extreme weather events will be more likely over the next few years.
86% of Greens voters and 63% of Labor voters think they will be more likely. However, 47% of Liberal/National voters think they will be neither more likely nor less likely.
68% of women think they will be more likely compared to 56% of men.
Extreme events linked to climate change
Q. And do you think that these extreme events – bushfires, floods, cyclones, etc – are likely or unlikely to be linked to climate change?
|
Total |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Vote other |
|
| Likely to be linked to climate change |
76% |
83% |
63% |
96% |
63% |
|
| Unlikely to be linked to climate change |
16% |
10% |
26% |
2% |
24% |
|
| Don’t know |
9% |
6% |
11% |
3% |
14% |
(Based on the 63% – 625 respondents – who think extreme event are more likely.)
Of those who think extreme events are more likely, 76% think they are likely to be linked to climate change and 16% think they are unlikely to be linked to climate change.
83% of Labor voters and 96% of Greens voters think they are likely to be linked to climate change.
Climate change
Q. Do you believe that there is fairly conclusive evidence that climate change is happening and caused by human activity or do you believe that the evidence is still not in and we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate which happens from time to time?
|
Total |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/ |
Vote Greens |
Vote other |
|
Nov 09 |
Dec 10 |
Jun 11 |
Oct 12 |
Oct 13 |
Jan 14 |
Apr 14 |
Jun 14 |
|
| Climate change is happening and is caused by human activity |
56% |
72% |
32% |
92% |
55% |
53% |
45% |
50% |
48% |
52% |
51% |
56% |
53% |
||
| We are just witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate |
30% |
19% |
51% |
4% |
35% |
34% |
36% |
39% |
39% |
36% |
39% |
34% |
35% |
||
| Don’t know |
14% |
9% |
16% |
4% |
10% |
13% |
19% |
12% |
13% |
12% |
11% |
10% |
12% |
56% (up 3% since June) agree that climate change is happening and is caused by human activity and 30% (down 5%) believe that we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate. This is the equal highest recorded belief in climate change – and the lowest level of disbelief.
By age groups, those aged under 35 split 70%/16% and those aged 55+ split 50%/41%. People with higher education were more likely to think climate change is happening and is caused by human activity – those with university degrees split 69%/20%.
Concern about climate change
Q. Over the last 2 years, have you become more concerned or less concerned about the environmental effects of global warming or do you feel about the same as you did 2 years ago?
|
Total |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Vote other |
|
| Total more concerned |
52% |
61% |
34% |
89% |
52% |
|
| Total less concerned |
9% |
10% |
14% |
2% |
6% |
|
| Much more concerned |
22% |
27% |
11% |
65% |
18% |
|
| A little more concerned |
30% |
34% |
23% |
24% |
34% |
|
| About the same |
35% |
28% |
49% |
7% |
40% |
|
| A little less concerned |
6% |
8% |
8% |
2% |
1% |
|
| Much less concerned |
3% |
2% |
6% |
– |
5% |
|
| Don’t know |
4% |
2% |
3% |
2% |
3% |
52% say they have become more concerned about the environmental effects of global warming over the last two years and 9% have become less concerned – 35% feel about the same.
Those most likely to have become more concerned were Labor voters (61%), Greens voters (89%), aged 18-34 (59%) and people with university degrees (63%).
Action on climate change
Q. Which of the following actions on climate change would you most support?
|
Total |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Vote other |
|
| Incentives for renewable energy |
50% |
52% |
45% |
61% |
59% |
|
| An emissions trading scheme |
12% |
20% |
5% |
24% |
6% |
|
| The Government’s direct action policy |
10% |
10% |
12% |
7% |
14% |
|
| No action required |
11% |
4% |
21% |
– |
13% |
|
| Don’t know |
17% |
14% |
17% |
8% |
8% |
In taking action on climate change, 50% most support incentives for renewable energy, 12% most support an emissions trading scheme and 10% most support the Government‘s direct action policy – while 11% say no action is required.
All groups are most likely to support incentives for renewable energy. Those more likely to support an emissions trading scheme were Greens voters (24%) and Labor voters (20%).
Importance of environmental issues
Q. How important are the following environmental issues to you?
|
Total import-ant |
Total not import-ant |
|
Very import-ant |
Moder-ately import-ant |
|
Import -ant Vote Labor |
Import -ant Vote Lib/ Nat |
Import -ant Vote Greens |
Import -ant Vote Other |
|
| Protecting the Great Barrier Reef |
91% |
7% |
58% |
33% |
94% |
89% |
94% |
90% |
||
| Protecting endangered species |
87% |
11% |
49% |
38% |
91% |
83% |
89% |
87% |
||
| Cutting air and water pollution |
87% |
11% |
46% |
41% |
91% |
83% |
89% |
85% |
||
| Protecting native forests |
86% |
11% |
45% |
41% |
91% |
83% |
91% |
87% |
||
| Deforestation (for timber and paper) |
80% |
17% |
35% |
45% |
83% |
76% |
77% |
76% |
||
| Strengthen environmental protection laws |
77% |
20% |
35% |
42% |
84% |
69% |
88% |
79% |
||
| Deforestation (for palm oil products) |
74% |
22% |
37% |
37% |
78% |
67% |
82% |
75% |
||
| Population growth |
73% |
25% |
33% |
40% |
72% |
77% |
67% |
74% |
||
| Addressing climate change |
71% |
27% |
37% |
34% |
84% |
57% |
85% |
67% |
The most important environmental issues were protecting the Great Barrier Reef (91%), protecting endangered species (87%), cutting air and water pollution (87%) and protecting native forests (86%). All issues were thought to be important by over 70% of respondents.
The ranking of issues was similar across party voting groups except for –
- Addressing climate change, which was rated more important by Labor voters (84%) and Greens voters (85%) but lower by Liberal/National voters (57%).
- Strengthen environmental protection laws, which was rated more important by Labor voters (84%) and Greens voters (88%).
Population growth, which was rated more important by Liberal/National voters (77%).
Actions on climate change
Q. Now that the carbon tax has been repealed, which of the following actions on climate change would you most support?
|
Total |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Vote other |
|
| Incentives for renewable energy |
43% |
43% |
38% |
54% |
52% |
|
| An emissions trading scheme |
19% |
30% |
13% |
31% |
8% |
|
| The Government’s direct action policy |
5% |
4% |
7% |
1% |
6% |
|
| No action required |
14% |
7% |
25% |
1% |
13% |
|
| Don’t know |
19% |
18% |
18% |
13% |
21% |
The most favoured action on climate change was incentives for renewable energy (43%). Only 5% preferred the Government’s direct action policy while 19% favoured an emissions trading scheme.
The emissions trading scheme received higher support from Greens voters (31%) and Labor voters (30%).
25% of Liberal/National voters and 19% of those aged 45+ think no action is required.
Actions on climate change
Q. Which of the following actions on climate change do you most support?
|
Total |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Vote other |
|
Oct 13 |
Apr 14 |
|
| Keeping the carbon tax |
16% |
31% |
2% |
40% |
4% |
15% |
17% |
||
| Replacing the carbon tax with an emissions trading scheme |
22% |
29% |
16% |
28% |
23% |
21% |
22% |
||
| Replacing the carbon tax with the Liberal’s “direct action” plan |
9% |
1% |
20% |
7% |
10% |
15% |
12% |
||
| Dumping the carbon tax and not replacing it at all |
33% |
21% |
45% |
10% |
49% |
31% |
30% |
||
| Don’t know |
19% |
18% |
17% |
15% |
14% |
18% |
19% |
33% think the carbon tax should be dumped and not replaced, 22% support replacing it with an emissions trading scheme, 9% prefer the Liberal’s “direct action” plan and 16% think the Government should keep the carbon tax. Since this question was asked in April, support for dumping the carbon tax and not replacing it has increased from 30% to 33% and support for the “direct action” plan dropped 3 points to 9%.
Those most likely to support keeping the tax or changing to an emissions trading scheme were Labor voters (60%) and Greens voters (68%) and those with a university education (47%).
Those most likely to think the carbon tax should be dumped and not replaced were Liberal/National voters (45%) and other party voters (49%). Only 20% of Liberal/National voters preferred the Liberal’s “direct action” plan.
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 14 May 2019
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