Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,818 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 4/3/13 |
2 weeks ago 18/2/13 |
Last week 25/3/13 |
This week 2/4/13 |
| Liberal |
|
46% |
45% |
45% |
47% |
| National |
|
3% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
49% |
47% |
47% |
49% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
32% |
35% |
33% |
31% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
10% |
9% |
11% |
11% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
8% |
8% |
9% |
9% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week
|
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
56% |
54% |
54% |
56% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
44% |
46% |
46% |
44% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
Attributes of the Labor Party
Q. Here is a list of things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various political parties. Which statements do you feel fit the Labor Party?
|
6 Jul 09 |
14 Mar 10
|
27 April 11
|
28 May 12 |
2 Apr 13 |
% change |
|
| Divided |
30% |
36% |
66% |
73% |
82% |
+9% |
| Will promise to do anything to win votes |
57% |
63% |
72% |
70% |
71% |
+1% |
| Out of touch with ordinary people |
44% |
48% |
61% |
58% |
63% |
+5% |
| Moderate |
65% |
63% |
51% |
50% |
47% |
-3% |
| Looks after the interests of working people |
|
|
39% |
47% |
42% |
-5% |
| Have a vision for the future |
|
|
43% |
41% |
42% |
+1% |
| Understands the problems facing Australia |
62% |
54% |
40% |
46% |
39% |
-7% |
| Too close to the big corporate and financial interests |
|
|
46% |
36% |
39% |
+3% |
| Extreme |
25% |
26% |
38% |
31% |
38% |
+7% |
| Clear about what they stand for |
|
|
28% |
31% |
27% |
-4% |
| Has a good team of leaders |
60% |
52% |
34% |
29% |
24% |
-5% |
| Keeps its promises |
44% |
33% |
20% |
22% |
19% |
-3% |
The Labor Party’s main attributes were – divided (82%), will promise anything to win votes (71%), out of touch with ordinary people (63%) and moderate (47%).
Main changes since last May were – divided (up 9% to 82%), understands the problems facing Australia (down 7% to 39%), extreme (up 7% to 38%), out of touch with ordinary people (up 5% to 63%), looks after the interests of working people (down 5% to 42%) and has a good team of leaders (down 5% to 24%).
Attributes of the Liberal Party
Q. And which statements do you feel fit the Liberal Party?
|
6 July 09 |
14 Mar 10
|
27 April 11 |
28 May 12 |
2 Apr 13 |
% change |
|
| Will promise to do anything to win votes |
67% |
72% |
65% |
63% |
67% |
+4% |
| Too close to the big corporate and financial interests |
|
|
60% |
58% |
59% |
+1% |
| Out of touch with ordinary people |
62% |
58% |
54% |
53% |
54% |
+1% |
| Moderate |
50% |
50% |
55% |
52% |
52% |
– |
| Have a vision for the future |
|
|
48% |
48% |
52% |
+4% |
| Understands the problems facing Australia |
44% |
43% |
51% |
52% |
50% |
-2% |
| Clear about what they stand for |
|
|
44% |
46% |
48% |
+2% |
| Has a good team of leaders |
29% |
31% |
40% |
39% |
41% |
+2% |
| Looks after the interests of working people |
|
|
38% |
40% |
40% |
– |
| Extreme |
36% |
38% |
36% |
34% |
35% |
+1% |
| Keeps its promises |
28% |
23% |
33% |
34% |
34% |
– |
| Divided |
74% |
66% |
49% |
37% |
32% |
-5% |
The Liberal Party’s main attributes were – will promise anything to win votes (67%), too close to the big corporate and financial interest (59%), out of touch with ordinary people (54%), moderate (52%) and have a vision for the future (52%).
The only substantial change since May last year was a drop in the figure for “divided” – down 5% to 32%.
Party attributes comparison – Labor vs Liberal
|
Labor |
Liberal
|
% difference |
|
| Divided |
82% |
32% |
+50% |
| Out of touch with ordinary people |
63% |
54% |
+9% |
| Will promise to do anything to win votes |
71% |
67% |
+4% |
| Extreme |
38% |
35% |
+3% |
| Looks after the interests of working people |
42% |
40% |
+2% |
| Moderate |
47% |
52% |
-5% |
| Have a vision for the future |
42% |
52% |
-10% |
| Understands the problems facing Australia |
39% |
50% |
-11% |
| Keeps its promises |
19% |
34% |
-15% |
| Has a good team of leaders |
24% |
41% |
-17% |
| Too close to the big corporate and financial interests |
39% |
59% |
-20% |
| Clear about what they stand for |
27% |
48% |
-21% |
The Labor Party is viewed more favourably than the Liberal Party in terms of being too close to the big corporate and financial interests.
The Liberal Party is seen more favourably in terms of – divided, clear about what they stand for, has a good team of leaders and keeps it promises.
Leader attributes – Julia Gillard
Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Prime Minister, Julia Gillard?
|
5 |
4 |
7 |
27 |
2 |
17 |
14 |
2 |
Change |
|
| Intelligent |
87% |
81% |
75% |
73% |
61% |
68% |
72% |
69% |
-3% |
| Hard-working |
89% |
82% |
76% |
75% |
65% |
69% |
72% |
66% |
-6% |
| Out of touch with ordinary people |
35% |
44% |
50% |
60% |
65% |
56% |
53% |
64% |
+11% |
| Arrogant |
37% |
39% |
44% |
48% |
53% |
46% |
47% |
55% |
+8% |
| Superficial |
51% |
52% |
54% |
46% |
46% |
55% |
+9% |
||
| Narrow-minded |
28% |
35% |
43% |
46% |
53% |
46% |
45% |
55% |
+10% |
| Aggressive |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
42% |
46% |
55% |
+9% |
| Erratic |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
43% |
40% |
55% |
+15% |
| Intolerant |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
37% |
37% |
49% |
+12% |
| Good in a crisis |
61% |
46% |
46% |
41% |
36% |
43% |
50% |
44% |
-6% |
| A capable leader |
72% |
59% |
52% |
42% |
38% |
43% |
50% |
37% |
-13% |
| Understands the problems facing Australia |
68% |
55% |
52% |
44% |
41% |
43% |
47% |
37% |
-10% |
| Visionary |
48% |
38% |
30% |
26% |
25% |
31% |
29% |
30% |
+1% |
| More honest than most politicians |
45% |
37% |
37% |
29% |
26% |
31% |
30% |
27% |
-3% |
| Trustworthy |
49% |
42% |
40% |
30% |
25% |
30% |
32% |
25% |
-7% |
Julia Gillard’s key attributes were intelligent (69%), hard-working (66%), out of touch with ordinary people (64%), arrogant (55%), superficial (55%), narrow-minded (55%), aggressive (55%) and erratic (55%). Almost all positive leader attributes for Gillard moved down and the negative attributes moved down from the last time the question was polled in January. The biggest shifts were for erratic (+15%), a capable leader (-13%), intolerant (+12), out of touch with ordinary people (+11%), narrow-minded (+10%) and understands the problems facing Australia (-10%).
Leader attributes – Tony Abbott
Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott?
|
5 |
4 |
7 |
27 |
2 |
17 |
14 |
2 |
Change |
|
| Hard-working |
76% |
78% |
72% |
75% |
68% |
67% |
70% |
70% |
– |
| Intelligent |
70% |
71% |
64% |
61% |
56% |
62% |
64% |
63% |
-1% |
| Arrogant |
59% |
60% |
58% |
60% |
61% |
63% |
61% |
56% |
-5% |
| Narrow-minded |
56% |
53% |
51% |
54% |
54% |
59% |
56% |
53% |
-3% |
| Out of touch with ordinary people |
57% |
53% |
54% |
57% |
54% |
57% |
54% |
52% |
-2% |
| Understands the problems facing Australia |
50% |
53% |
50% |
48% |
49% |
43% |
47% |
49% |
+2% |
| Superficial |
45% |
49% |
49% |
51% |
48% |
49% |
+1% |
||
| Aggressive |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
59% |
55% |
49% |
-6% |
| Intolerant |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
53% |
49% |
48% |
-1% |
| A capable leader |
47% |
52% |
48% |
45% |
41% |
37% |
43% |
47% |
+4% |
| Erratic |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
51% |
51% |
45% |
-6% |
| Good in a crisis |
40% |
42% |
41% |
40% |
36% |
35% |
39% |
44% |
+5% |
| Visionary |
32% |
31% |
27% |
27% |
26% |
29% |
28% |
37% |
+9% |
| More honest than most politicians |
33% |
32% |
31% |
32% |
30% |
27% |
29% |
36% |
+7% |
| Trustworthy |
33% |
35% |
34% |
32% |
32% |
30% |
33% |
36% |
+3% |
Tony Abbott’s key attributes were hard-working (70%), intelligent (63%), arrogant (56%), narrow-minded (53%) and out of touch with ordinary people (52%).
Since January the major shifts have been for visionary (+9%), more honest than most politicians (+7%), erratic (-6%), aggressive (-6%), arrogant (-5%) and good in a crisis (+5%).
Leader attributes – comparisons
|
Gillard |
Abbott |
Difference |
|
| Out of touch with ordinary people |
64% |
52% |
+12% |
| Erratic |
55% |
45% |
+10% |
| Intelligent |
69% |
63% |
+6% |
| Superficial |
55% |
49% |
+6% |
| Aggressive |
55% |
49% |
+6% |
| Narrow-minded |
55% |
53% |
+2% |
| Intolerant |
49% |
48% |
+1% |
| Good in a crisis |
44% |
44% |
– |
| Arrogant |
55% |
56% |
-1% |
| Hard-working |
66% |
70% |
-4% |
| Visionary |
30% |
37% |
-7% |
| More honest than most politicians |
27% |
36% |
-9% |
| A capable leader |
37% |
47% |
-10% |
| Trustworthy |
25% |
36% |
-11% |
| Understands the problems facing Australia |
37% |
49% |
-12% |
Compared to Tony Abbott, Julia Gillard is seen as more likely to be considered out of touch with ordinary people (+12%) and erratic (+10%).
Tony Abbott is regarded by significantly more respondents to understand the problems facing Australians (+12) and to be trustworthy (+11%), a capable leader (+10%) and more honest than most politicians (+9%).
Social class
Q. Do you believe social classes still exist in Australia?
|
Total
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Income under $600pw |
Income $600 – $1,000pw |
Income $1,000 – $1,600pw |
Income $1,600+ |
|
| Yes |
91%
|
90% |
93% |
96% |
84% |
90% |
92% |
93% |
| No |
9% |
10% |
7% |
4% |
16% |
10% |
8% |
7% |
91% agreed that social class still exists in Australia – only 9% disagreed. There was little difference across demographic groups – more than 80% of all major groups agreed.
COVID-19 RESEARCH
Read Essential's ongoing research on the public response to Covid-19.
Download this week's ReportEssential Report
Two Party Preferred:
In this week's report:
- Performance of Scott Morrison
- Performance of Anthony Albanese
- Preferred Prime Minister
- Federal government response to Covid-19
- State government response to Covid-19
- Better leadership during Covid-19 – PM vs state leader
- Attitudes towards Craig Kelly controversy and Scott Morrison’s leadership
- Views towards federal vs state government responsibility to manage Covid-19 hotel quarantine system
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