Q. Did you answer yes or no to the question “Should the law be changed to allow same-sex couples to marry? (Based on those who have already voted)
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other | Should be allowed to marry | Should not be allowed to marry | |||
| Yes | 64% | 76% | 47% | 95% | 49% | 94% | 5% | ||
| No | 30% | 21% | 43% | 5% | 43% | 1% | 92% | ||
| Prefer not to say | 6% | 3% | 10% | – | 8% | 4% | 3% |
| Total | Men | Women | Aged 18-34 | Aged 35-54 | Aged 55+ | Attend church at least once a month | Attend church less often | Never attend church | |||
| Yes | 64% | 56% | 70% | 76% | 65% | 55% | 26% | 64% | 73% | ||
| No | 30% | 40% | 23% | 20% | 30% | 37% | 67% | 27% | 24% | ||
| Prefer not to say | 6% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 5% | 8% | 7% | 9% | 4% |
Of those who have already voted, 64% say they voted yes and 30% no.
Those most likely to have voted yes are Greens voters (95%), Labor voters (76%), aged 18-34 (76%) and women (70%).
Q. The question in the national postal vote on same-sex marriage is “Should the law be changed to allow same-sex couples to marry? Do you intend to vote yes or no? (Based on those who have not yet voted)
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other | Should be allowed to marry | Should not be allowed to marry | Will
def-initely vote |
Will prob-ably vote | Will not vote | ||||
| Intend to vote yes | 50% | 66% | 41% | 55% | 36% | 88% | 3% | 61% | 57% | 16% | |||
| Intend to vote no | 36% | 24% | 46% | 30% | 42% | 5% | 93% | 37% | 34% | 44% | |||
| Don’t know | 14% | 10% | 12% | 16% | 22% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 10% | 40% |
| Total | Men | Women | Aged 18-34 | Aged 35-54 | Aged 55+ | Attend church at least once a month | Attend church less often | Never attend church | |||
| Intend to vote yes | 50% | 46% | 55% | 58% | 49% | 38% | 40% | 44% | 61% | ||
| Intend to vote no | 36% | 40% | 30% | 28% | 36% | 48% | 51% | 42% | 20% | ||
| Don’t know | 14% | 14% | 15% | 14% | 15% | 14% | 9% | 13% | 19% |
Of those yet to vote, 50% say they will vote yes and 36% no. However, of those who will definitely vote, 61% will vote yes and 37% no.
Those most likely to vote yes are Labor voters (66%), aged 18-34 (58%) and women (55%).
Q. How much trust do you have in the following institutions and organisations?
| Total
trust |
A lot of trust | Some trust | A little trust | No trust | Don’t know | % change | Total trust Oct 15 | Total trust Sep 16 | Total trust Jan 17 | |||
| Federal police | 71% | 27% | 44% | 19% | 7% | 3% | +2 | 67% | 63% | 69% | ||
| State police | 67% | 24% | 43% | 21% | 9% | 2% | – | 68% | 63% | 67% | ||
| The High Court | 61% | 22% | 39% | 25% | 10% | 4% | -1 | 60% | 57% | 62% | ||
| The ABC | 52% | 17% | 35% | 29% | 12% | 7% | -1 | 55% | 53% | 53% | ||
| The Reserve Bank | 49% | 13% | 36% | 32% | 13% | 7% | -2 | 51% | 47% | 51% | ||
| Charitable organisations | 46% | 8% | 38% | 38% | 12% | 4% | +1 | 49% | 43% | 45% | ||
| Environment groups | 42% | 9% | 33% | 35% | 19% | 5% | +3 | 42% | 39% | 39% | ||
| Your local council | 38% | 7% | 31% | 38% | 21% | 4% | – | 40% | 36% | 38% | ||
| The Commonwealth Public Service | 38% | 6% | 32% | 38% | 16% | 9% | +2 | 38% | 36% | 36% | ||
| State Parliament | 31% | 4% | 27% | 35% | 29% | 4% | – | 32% | 26% | 31% | ||
| Federal Parliament | 30% | 5% | 25% | 35% | 32% | 4% | – | 32% | 26% | 30% | ||
| Business groups | 28% | 4% | 24% | 46% | 20% | 6% | +1 | 30% | 27% | 27% | ||
| Religious organisations | 26% | 6% | 20% | 31% | 39% | 4% | -2 | 30% | 26% | 28% | ||
| Trade unions | 25% | 4% | 21% | 34% | 33% | 7% | -2 | 27% | 25% | 27% | ||
| Political parties | 18% | 3% | 15% | 34% | 45% | 3% | +1 | 16% | 14% | 17% |
Note: ‘Total Trust’ is an aggregate figure achieved by adding ‘A lot of trust’ and ‘Some trust’
Overall, trust in institutions j=has changed little since this question was asked in January.
Respondents had most trust in the Federal police (71%), State police (67%), the High Court (61%), the ABC (52%) and the Reserve Bank (49%). They had least trust in political parties (17%), business groups (27%), trade unions (27%) and religious organisations (28%).
The main change since the last poll were for environment groups (up 3%).
Q. How much trust do you have in what you read or hear in the following media?
| Total a lot /some
trust |
A lot of trust | Some trust | Not much trust | No trust at all | Don’t know | Don’t use | % change | Total a lot /some
Jun 15 |
Total a lot /some
Feb 16 |
Total a lot /some
Mar 17 |
|||
| ABC TV news and current affairs | 63% | 16% | 47% | 18% | 10% | 3% | 7% | +4 | 63% | 66% | 59% | ||
| SBS TV news and current affairs | 61% | 13% | 48% | 17% | 8% | 4% | 10% | +2 | 61% | 63% | 59% | ||
| ABC radio news and current affairs | 58% | 14% | 44% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 9% | +2 | 58% | 62% | 56% | ||
| Commercial TV news and current affairs | 45% | 5% | 40% | 32% | 15% | 3% | 5% | +3 | 46% | 48% | 42% | ||
| ABC radio talkback programs | 44% | 8% | 36% | 26% | 12% | 5% | 14% | -1 | 46% | 49% | 45% | ||
| News and opinion in local newspapers | 44% | 4% | 40% | 32% | 12% | 3% | 8% | -1 | 50% | 49% | 45% | ||
| News and opinion in daily newspapers | 42% | 4% | 38% | 31% | 15% | 4% | 9% | – | 45% | 49% | 42% | ||
| Commercial radio news and current affairs | 41% | 4% | 37% | 32% | 14% | 4% | 8% | +1 | 44% | 46% | 40% | ||
| News and opinion websites | 40% | 3% | 37% | 34% | 15% | 4% | 8% | +4 | 39% | 44% | 36% | ||
| Commercial radio talkback programs | 35% | 4% | 31% | 30% | 19% | 4% | 11% | +1 | 34% | 34% | 34% | ||
| Internet blogs | 20% | 3% | 17% | 35% | 27% | 5% | 13% | +1 | 20% | 23% | 19% |
Overall, trust in media has increased slightly since this question was asked in March – however rankings remain much the same.
The most trusted media were ABC TV news and current affairs (63% a lot/some trust), SBS TV news and current affairs (61%) and ABC radio news and current affairs (58%).
The least trusted were internet blogs (20%) and commercial radio talkback programs (35%).
The main changes since February last year have been for news and opinion websites (up 4%) and ABC TV news and current affairs (up 4%).
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to?
| Total | Last week 19/9/17 | 2 weeks ago 12/9/17 | 4 weeks ago 29/8/17 | Election 2 Jul 16 | |||
| Liberal | 33% | 34% | 33% | 34% | |||
| National | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |||
| Total Liberal/National | 37% | 38% | 36% | 37% | 42.0% | ||
| Labor | 37% | 36% | 37% | 36% | 34.7% | ||
| Greens | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10.2% | ||
| Nick Xenophon Team | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | |||
| Pauline Hanson’s One Nation | 7% | 8% | 9% | 8% | |||
| Other/Independent | 6% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 13.1% | ||
| 2 party preferred | |||||||
| Liberal National | 47% | 48% | 46% | 47% | 50.4% | ||
| Labor | 53% | 52% | 54% | 53% | 49.6% |
Q. Do you support changing the law to allow same-sex couples to marry?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other | 5 Sep | 19 Sep | |||
| Yes | 58% | 65% | 47% | 84% | 48% | 59% | 55% | ||
| No | 33% | 25% | 43% | 10% | 46% | 31% | 34% | ||
| Don’t know | 9% | 9% | 9% | 6% | 7% | 11% | 11% |
| Total | Men | Women | Aged 18-34 | Aged 35-54 | Aged 55+ | Will
def-initely vote |
Will prob-ably vote | Will not vote | Already voted | |||
| Yes | 58% | 52% | 63% | 65% | 55% | 54% | 57% | 43% | 13% | 72% | ||
| No | 33% | 38% | 28% | 28% | 33% | 39% | 39% | 35% | 64% | 26% | ||
| Don’t know | 9% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 13% | 7% | 4% | 22% | 23% | 2% |
58% (up 3% from a week ago) support changing the law to allow same-sex couples to marry and 33% (down 1%) are opposed.
Those most in favour of changing the marriage laws are Labor voters (65%), Greens voters (84%), women (63%) and those aged 18-34 (65%).
72% of those who have already voted support same-sex marriage and 28% oppose. Those who are yet to vote but will definitely vote in the national survey are more likely than the average to oppose same-sex marriage (39%).
Q. How likely are you to vote in the national postal vote on same-sex marriage?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other | 5 Sep | 19 Sep | |||
| Will definitely vote | 45% | 42% | 50% | 34% | 49% | 62% | 62% | ||
| Will probably vote | 8% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 16% | 12% | ||
| Will probably not vote | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 2% | ||
| Will definitely not vote | 2% | 3% | 3% | <1% | 3% | 3% | 3% | ||
| Not sure | 5% | 5% | 4% | 6% | 2% | 10% | 8% | ||
| I have already voted | 36% | 38% | 32% | 49% | 36% | – | 9% | ||
| I am not enrolled to vote at my current address | 3% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 5% |
| Total | Men | Women | Aged 18-34 | Aged 35-54 | Aged 55+ | Support same sex marriage | Don’t support same sex marriage | |||
| Will definitely vote | 45% | 47% | 42% | 48% | 42% | 45% | 44% | 52% | ||
| Will probably vote | 8% | 10% | 6% | 13% | 8% | 3% | 6% | 8% | ||
| Will probably not vote | 1% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 1% | – | 3% | ||
| Will definitely not vote | 2% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 4% | ||
| Not sure | 5% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 3% | ||
| I have already voted | 36% | 30% | 41% | 27% | 36% | 45% | 44% | 28% | ||
| I am not enrolled to vote at my current address | 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 2% |
45% (down 17% from a week ago) say they will definitely vote in the same-sex marriage national vote while 36% (up 27%) say they have already voted.
88% of those in favour of same-sex marriage say they will definitely vote or have voted compared to 80% of those opposed.
Q. How concerned are you that allowing same-sex marriage may impact on religious freedoms?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other | Support same sex marriage | Don’t support same sex marriage | |||
| Very concerned | 20% | 18% | 24% | 6% | 24% | 6% | 47% | ||
| Concerned | 15% | 14% | 21% | 8% | 15% | 7% | 28% | ||
| Not very concerned | 16% | 15% | 17% | 16% | 18% | 18% | 12% | ||
| Not at all concerned | 42% | 48% | 32% | 65% | 37% | 65% | 8% | ||
| Don’t know | 7% | 5% | 7% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 5% |
20% say they are very concerned and 15% concerned that allowing same-sex marriage may impact on religious freedoms while 58% are not concerned.
75% of those who don’t support same-sex marriage say they are concerned about religious freedoms.